Which states would be a surprised on election night that would flip?

[Jamesyu]

To me Ohio would be number 1, since Trump won that state by 10 points in 2016. Than I would say Iowa, Texas, Georgia, and Florida in that order.

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Alabama and Utah - you said which states would be a surprise...nt

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Texas.

I am getting to the point where I think Biden wins Ohio but I don't see Texas. He's down in most polls, including five in one released today. It's just unlikely despite people thinking it can happen.

So, based on most surprised to least:

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Iowa
4. Ohio

[Chainfire]

3. I will be shocked if my state, Florida

goes blue.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Hopefully that isn't the case or we're in trouble.

It'll mean the polls are pretty far off since Biden leads by nearly five in an average of polls there. If he loses FL, it could mean polls are wrong in PA, MI & WI and that's not good.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

11. Not that shocked

We voted for Obama twice, Bill Clinton once, then you have 2000, and Trump only carried it by about one percent IIRC.

I don’t know why people assume we’re some bright red state; we’re far from it.

[drray23]

12. well Obama won it twice.

I would not be too shocked if Joe wins it. Texas would be more surprising.

[Mike 03]

4. I know it's a big ask, but I'd love to see

TEXAS go blue.

[MicaelS]

5. I am praying hard that Texas flips.

I have live in Texas for 50 years, and it is high time for a change. Maybe we can rid of MAGAt Gov. and Lt. Gov.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

7. Texas

And if it flips, ballgame over.

[roamer65]

8. TX.

[greenjar_01]

9. Georgia would be more surprising than Iowa in my view

Texas would be much more surprising than Florida.

Ohio swings around a lot. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lost it, nor if he wins it again.

[Native]

10. Massachusetts

[beachbumbob]

13. 1. Ohio 2. Texas 3. Kansas 4, Missouri 5.Georgia 6. NC

7. Arizona 8. Wisconsin 9. Michigan 10. PA

rnarked in order of GREATEST surprise to least surprise

[OregonBlue]

14. He's even dropping in Nebraska. That would be a real "get".

[Proud Liberal Dem]

15. Georgia or Texas would be the most shocking

Ohio and Florida went Red last time but they went Blue twice for Obama. As did Iowa.

There is little doubt in my mind that, based on what we are seeing pollwise, Biden was the right nominee for 2020. I was a little perturbed that we couldn't get another woman at the top of the ticket but Joe seems to be winning the "Electability" argument this year. And he did put an African-American woman in the VP slot, which is pretty amazing.