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WaPo: Even in his best polls, Trump's path to victory is elusive
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/09/even-trumps-best-polls-hes-losing-reelection/-snipping paragraphs about Trump's best national AND state polls-
Summary
What you see above is that Trump’s margins in even his best high-quality polls regularly come up short of how he performed in 2016 — by between three and nine points in every state but Florida.
The margins are also frequently tighter in lower-quality and partisan polls than in the big-name, high-quality polls. Maybe those polls are actually the more accurate ones! But these high-quality pollsters would need to be making major errors (despite course corrections that happened following 2016), or something quite strange would need to happen for the race to be close.
In fact, if you award electoral votes simply based upon Trump’s best, high-quality recent polls in these states, Biden wins with at least 296 electoral votes, compared to 213 for Trump (with Florida’s 29 up for grabs). Biden could even lose a very close state like Ohio and still clear the 270 he needs.
Summary
What you see above is that Trump’s margins in even his best high-quality polls regularly come up short of how he performed in 2016 — by between three and nine points in every state but Florida.
The margins are also frequently tighter in lower-quality and partisan polls than in the big-name, high-quality polls. Maybe those polls are actually the more accurate ones! But these high-quality pollsters would need to be making major errors (despite course corrections that happened following 2016), or something quite strange would need to happen for the race to be close.
In fact, if you award electoral votes simply based upon Trump’s best, high-quality recent polls in these states, Biden wins with at least 296 electoral votes, compared to 213 for Trump (with Florida’s 29 up for grabs). Biden could even lose a very close state like Ohio and still clear the 270 he needs.
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