Ari on MSNBC wasd just talking about Hillary polling higher than Joe is at the same time in the

[napi21]

last election. It's scaring me to death! She wasn't a lot higher, just a few points, but higher in each of the must win States! I remember being a bit unsure if she would really win, but I thought most people would see what he was really like and not vote for someone like him. I didn't realize Biden was still that vulnerable. Dear God, I HOPE he doesn't win again! I'm truly scaren.

[XanaDUer2]

1. Me too

...

[Wounded Bear]

2. I zoned out when he started that one...

no matter.

Don't worry. Vote.

[agingdem]

6. this isn't 2016

Joe isn't Hillary ... the world as we know it doesn't exist anymore...the polls mean nothing...we vote..we win...

[Scurrilous]

13. Yep.

[bdamomma]

37. yes

that's it


WE VOTE WE WIN...................good slogan.

[drray23]

3. there is a big difference.

She was never above 50 % and a lot of people were undecided. That is not true for Biden. He is way above 50 and very few are undecided meaning Trump would have to flip votes to turn it around.

[peggysue2]

69. Exactly. This is not 2016.

Biden has been hitting 50% and above consistently over the last month. And though it breaks my heart, Joe ain't Hillary. Joe Biden hasn't been demonized the way she was. Right too on the undecided voters. They're practically nil at this point. Then we have the Black Lives Matter movement, how the consciousness of the country has dramatically shifted. Trump and his cohorts are still living in the 1950s.

The biggest difference? The Covid-19 pandemic, an absolute disaster that is now ravaging the Midwest and has created so much death and damage across the country. Trump can deny his culpability until his head pops off. But the electorate knows how badly he's f*cked the response, how incapable he is of showing compassion for the 210,000+ dead and 7 million infected. And those 210,000+ dead? They all had families, loved ones and neighbors, communities, etc. They meant something to a lot of other people, people who are heartsick and angry, people who can vote. Same with the 7 million infected patients. And for those of us who have remained healthy? We all know the risk is out there because the Trump Administration screwed up catastrophically.

It is what it is?? What decent human being would ever say such a thing?

Trump is losing this election through his own arrogance, soullessness and stupidity. There's no 'give Trump a chance' this time out. He had his chance and completely blew it. Anyone and everyone who has the slightest patriotic leaning knows this man is a danger to the country and her citizens, not to mention the world at large.

He's going to lose. And then we're going to be left to pick up the pieces.

[icymist]

71. This!

K&R 1000%

[spooky3]

74. IIRC that's not true, according to the polls Ari reported in some swing states.

Sorry that I don't have screen caps; I'm just pulling from memory, because I was surprised at the numbers.

[OnDoutside]

4. Huge difference in undecided voters though. Hardly anyone is undecided now

[vercetti2021]

5. This isn't even close to the same

Joe has been over 50 or more since May. Joe wasn't turned into a villain like Hillary was for over 30 years

[Cattledog]

7. Not true. HC 44.8% DT 39.7% 10-9-16

JB 52.1% DT 42% 10-9-20

Both are the national averages from 538.com

[uponit7771]

19. Ari talked about 2 swing states not the national polling which he admitted mean nothing cause its

... horse race candy.

I'm trying to verify the polling was like meaning today we have LV polling with 3.5 MOE leaning Biden.

If we can't get a certain number with that data then all polling companies should just quit seeing historically that's primo data.

[Norbert]

52. trump has a record or lack thereof to run on in 2020.

Unlike 2016.

Biden is not Hillary. The GOP right had 25 years of hate and false accusations against Hillary. They can't make anything stick with Biden.

Just vote. The rest will take care of itself.

[moonscape]

8. I saw comment on this a few days ago. The

difference is that Joe has been steady, increasing. His favorables are way higher, and that point in time was right after Access Hollywood tape came out when 45 cratered. It was a peak in her number, i.e. lower before and after. Joe's situation isn't like that.

There were other qualifiers that I'm not remembering right now, but it eased my panic

[msdogi]

9. It's all about turn out

Voter turnout was dismal in 2016. If we can get people to vote and they are fairly counted. we got this.
Big ifs, I know. but I am optimistic.

[secondwind]

10. I don't remember millions of voters having already voted at this time

back when Hillary was running. So there’s that. And Texas being almost blue, either. Joe is running a very different campaign than Hillary in 2016. He isn’t leaving any stone unturned.

[jorgevlorgan]

16. Exactly. At this point in 2016 we still had less than a million vote.

We are already at about 6% of the total 2016 turnout. If this rate holds, we could be at over 100 million early votes before the election.

[msongs]

11. and trump is the incumbent. everybody knows all about him besides democrats nt

[regnaD kciN]

12. He must be cherry-picking the polls...

...because I don’t remember her being up anywhere near the high single- or even double-digits in the key states we’re seeing now. Maybe 3-5 points (which, at the time, I thought was too close). Perhaps Melber is just grabbing the numbers from a day or two after the “pussy-grabber” tape?

[smb]

32. Yep -- Cherry-Picking The High Point (Right After Access Hollywood Tape, Before Comey Late Hit nt)

[uponit7771]

38. ah ... got it

[jorgevlorgan]

14. Well that's not even close to true.

She was never consistently polling above 50% in MI, WI and PA. I know she began doing pretty well, but definitely never better than Biden. She also never was consistently ahead by 10 points. So no...

[Thekaspervote]

17. Exactly! Melber..a two siderism jerk. Sowing doubt

[jorgevlorgan]

20. I mean if it were true, I wouldn't mind. But I don't understand why they have to say untrue things.

This and the state legislatures overruling the election and us not know who will be president on election day, etc, etc. The press is no better than a troll in this way.

[Thekaspervote]

15. Ari Melber has turned into a total jerk..he was dissing Joe the their day about age

He was originally a big Bernie fan, and had nothing good to say about Joe. Bernie is older than Joe, so shove it guy

[Trumpocalypse]

63. Exactly

He still can’t get over that Sanders lost, Him and Chris Hayes.

[katmondoo]

18. Sometimes I wonder about him, is he a democrat or a republican. I went to CNN after Nicolle. Happily

[NRaleighLiberal]

21. not true . my dream is that EVERYONE turn off TV and stop feeding the beast

and ruining their lives.

There is much joy without it.

[wishstar]

22. Hillary's poll numbers took a hit after Comey announced reopening email probe mid- October

Her support dropped several points esp. among middle-aged women after Comey's stunt. Another important factor in swing states was that black voter turnout was significantly less than for Obama/Biden.

So far none of the attempted smears against Biden have gotten any traction and turnout seems to be soaring for Biden with female and African American voters this time around.

[uponit7771]

39. +1

[beachbumbob]

23. Ari lied, HRC NEVER had a lead like Biden has. Question is why did he lie?

[smb]

33. As I Noted Above, HRC *VERY BRIEFLY* Had That Lead

Ari is cherry-picking the point just after the Access Hollywood tape dropped.

[uponit7771]

55. +1, looks like Ari took date to date polling after Access Hollywood tape and not week to week or ...

... overall throughout the month.

Also Comey really screwed America

[GulfCoast66]

59. Ratings, views, horse race.

[ClusterFreak]

24. I saw swing state polls the other day...

...as part of the VP debate coverage on ABC I think, which showed Biden SMOKING Trump's ass in like a half dozen key swing states in which Trump beat Hillary four years ago. Any polls I have seen have put Biden clearly if not comfortably ahead with the exception of the typical red states, especially in the deep south. So MSNBC can go fuck itself. Maybe it's a get out the vote ploy, who knows, but whatever it is I am calling bullshit.

[Dream Girl]

25. I distincly remember seeing Steve Kornaki doing a segment comparing Hillary and Bidens polling leads

yestery and he showed that Biden is far ahead of where Clinton was polling. Did Melber show any actual data or was is purely anectodal?

[uponit7771]

40. He showed RCP averages for today which was right after Access Hollywood tapes and before Comey.

[LizBeth]

26. Comey news the end of the month, 11 days before election, took her down 7 points.

[uponit7771]

41. +1

[HelpImSurrounded]

27. Look at this comparison

Joe's lead is more steady than Hillary's was and generally higher.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/

[uponit7771]

53. That's nationally, Ari was talking about 2 swing state polls with date to date info but didn't ...

... mention during the segment the 16 poll was after Access Hollywood tape and not a monthly average to that time.

Also, Comey screwed us good, all the data points to Comey's actions ... that was half of the 8 point swing

[Fiendish Thingy]

28. Absolutely false- 2016: HRC +4.3% 2020: Biden +9.6%

Those are RCP aggregate averages.

[BainsBane]

29. I don't recall

at all.

[Fiendish Thingy]

30. So, with all the evidence to the contrary of the assertions in your OP, are you still scared? Nt

[Ms. Toad]

34. Virtually all of the evidence to the contrary provided

is focused on teh popular vote. As we know all too well from 2016, that is not what wins the presidency.

It will do us little good to have a 10% advantage, if the 10% comes from CA, NY, etc. We have to win enough of the smaller, purple states. That's where we lost last time - and we will again this time if we continue to be cocky about how far ahead we are in the popular vote.

[Fiendish Thingy]

43. A 10% margin in the pop vote gives 99.9% odds of EC win; HRC had 2-3% which 50% odds

Biden’s leads in the crucial Rust Belt states are far greater than Hillary’s were, and the polls have corrected for over sampling college educated voters in 2016.

It is virtually impossible to win the popular vote by 10%, even 8%, and lose the electoral college.

This isn’t 2016, it’s more like 1980. The data, and momentum are on our side, and grow every day.

I’m not complacent, but neither am I panicked, just vigilant.

[Ms. Toad]

48. You cannot predict the votes in key states by the margin in the popular vote.

So the "evidence" provided is non-existent.

Evidence would be infomation about the differences in the key battelground states - and those numbers are far closer; most within the margin of error.

Too many on DU are getting sucked in by the same illusory data as with Clinton.

[Fiendish Thingy]

54. Quinnipiac poll of PA Oct 7: Biden +13%, 2.8%MOE

Emerson poll MI 10/8: Biden +11, 3.6%MOE

MN polls are averaging Biden +9%

WI polls are averaging Biden +7.3%

These exceed Clinton’s leads in those states at the same time in 2016.

The data does not support your pessimism.

[Ms. Toad]

58. That data is at least responsive to the concern raised in the OP,

because it addresses a few battleground states.

My observation was largely that virtually all the responses were focusing on the national polls and insisting that the national polls proved the point. They don't.

[Ms. Toad]

31. Of course he is still vulnerable.

We have been getting far too cocky.

Trump won by the electoral vote last time - and if this is accurate it is very troubling.

[OhZone]

35. HA! No she wasn't!

[uponit7771]

42. Those are national numbers, the numbers Ari was touting were two swing states but it looks like it..

... was right after access holloywood tapes and before comey.

Comey fucked us all ... he wont admit it either.

[triron]

56. Putin did even more.

[uponit7771]

62. +1, if that was LV low MOE data in 16 then that's not far fetched. Right now Comey looks like the...

... biggest factor and he to this day hasn't answered for his shit.

[Ms. Toad]

50. The national spread does not have a direct correlation

to the spread in the battleground states, so (like nearly every other post in this thread) it is meaningless.

[BGBD]

64. Why do you say that?

Because national polling does give us a really good idea of where swing states, and non-swing states for that matter, are going to be. National polls are much more numerous and have a great track record. State polls are more noisy and we usually have less of them, particularly of high quality, to make judgements with.

In 2016 the reason people were overconfident in Hillary was because of polling in swing states showing her up. However, there were not a lot of those polls and even less high quality ones at the end of the cycle.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html#polls



National polling on the other hand was of high quality and had plenty of polling in the field at the end, even through the last week of the election and it showed a close race.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls


You can go back and look at national polling for years it has less error than state polling on average. Sure, some states will have low error in any given cycle, but it's a little random. With all of the talk of "THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG" from 2016, national polling missed by 1 point, low error by any standard. We knew who trumps demographics were and we knew it was a close race nationally at the end, so we should also have known that it was going to be a toss-up election where Clinton was slightly favored.


It's also impossible to compare how Hillary was polling in a given state with how Joe is because state polling methodologies have changed specifically to address the 2016 misses and more state polls are weighting by education this cycle. So it's an apples to oranges comparison. You also need to take larger potential error into account in state polls and the picture becomes pretty fuzzy.

That's a long rant but the bottom line to me is that if Joe is leading by 10, like he is today, or even 8 points on election day he is very, very likely to win. Even if there were a large polling error of say 4 points in Trumps direction, Biden would still be in a stronger positional that Hillary was going in to election day.

[Ms. Toad]

65. National polls predict the popular vote, not the electoral vote.

Electoral votes are state by state, and are - by and large - winner takes all. That's why you can have a popular vote winner who does not become president.

If the national poll spread is based on Biden doing really really well in large blue strongholds, it hides the smaller - much closer races in the states that are critical to winning - where the electoral vote isn't split 50-50 (as the national polling treats them), but winner take all. So if Tump wins those votes it is as if he won 100% of the votes in those states - even if he only won by 1 vote.

So - just to simplify matters:

Let's say we have 5 states - each with 10 electoral votes and equal population.
State 1: Biden ahead 80:20
State 2: Biden ahead 75:25
State 3: Trump ahead 51:49
State 4: Trump ahead 51:49
State 5: Trump ahead 51:49.

The popular vote, if it matched the polls, for this 5-state country would show Biden ahead 60.4:39.6 - a 20.8% lead
The electoral vote would award the presidency to Trump based on his 30 electoral votes (states 3-5) against Biden's 20 (states 1 & 2)

That is obviously a gross simplification - but it should illustrate the point as to why the national poll does not necessarily predict the electoral vote.

The quality of the polling is not the issue - we don't elect our president based on the national popular vote. We elect him based on electoral votes. Those are inherently state-based, and they are winner take all so (as illustrated above) if his lead is large and in the wrong states he could lose spectularly in the electoral college where slim margins make a ginormous difference in the electoral college vote.

[BGBD]

68. It just doesn't work like that in practice.

In theory, yes, you could have large states with a politically homogenous electorate, but we just don't. Hillary won California by 30 points, not 60. If Biden were to improve on her numbers in California he would have to do so by winning over the same types of voters he would need to win PA or WI, so you can't improve that much just based on already blue states.


Sure, we don't elect based on national vote, but there isn't a world where Trump or anyone else can lose an election by 8 points nationally and manage to get to 270, it's just not happening. Also, if you consider Biden outperforming Hillary among seniors and white voters you will see that he has a built in advantage over her electorally, so it's quite likely that he would win nationally by less than she did and still get to 270.

So as I said, if Biden goes into election day with an 8 point national lead then Trump is going to need a very large polling error in his direction to find a path to 270.

[Ms. Toad]

70. Unless you are basing it on state polls, it isn't a polling error -

it is a stupidity error for relying on a popular vote poll when that's not how we decide who is president.

I illustrated, using a simplified model, why that is the case. I was among those raising flags in advance of the 2016 election and being riduculed and called a troll for suggesting she didn't hve the election in the bag. If you liked the result in 2016, feel free to ignore the math combined with political reality.

[BGBD]

72. And?

The evidence of Hillary's weakness was showing up in national polls, not state ones. You're just proving my point.

But since you have decided to give up the debate and dive into personal attacks we're done. Live in you ignorance.

[Ms. Toad]

73. But she lost based on STATE results, she did not lose the popular national vote.

The national polls do not even pretend to predict who will win the electoral college - they can't because the electoral results are based on state by state results.

The only thing that matters are state results - because the electors are not proportional to the popular vote in each state (which would make the national polling a somewhat better predictor); they are winner take all. That further distorts the disconnect between popular vote and electoral votes. Not only are the electors allocated disproportionately to the population in each jurisdiction, the vote within each jurisdiction is allocated disproportionately to the vote in that jurisdiction.

That's two significant distortions from the national polling.

It's just math. The fact that state polls did not accurately predict the outcome in each state doesn't prove your point - it just reinforces how unrealistic it is to rely on the national poll - which accurately predicted her popular vote win. It's like measuring the condensation your plants in the morning to determine what the temperature was the night before. They are related, but it is such an indirect relationship as to render the estimate meaningless.

[spooky3]

76. Another key difference in the EC vs national polls

By design, the EC overweights low population states by giving all states the same number of Senators. These states, like Wyoming, ND, SD, etc., tend to be rural and red.

So, Dems have a huge disadvantage there.

[Ms. Toad]

78. Agreed.

I didn't suggest the direction of the distortion - but that's what I was referring to when I said the electors were not allocated in proportion to the state population.

[smirkymonkey]

60. Thank YOU!

[helpisontheway]

36. I stopped recording him. He is a jerk. He knows how

important this election is..yet he always has something negative to say. Probably wants Trump so he has something to complain about for the next four years.

[Dream Girl]

45. I don't record him or Chris Hayes any more

Chris dead to me since he tried to take down Biden with that fake accuser Tara whatshername. Is was super irresponsible and stupid.

[BainsBane]

66. I can't stand how

he pretends he's so cool with his rap lyrics. It's just stupid. I can't watch him.

[Tribetime]

44. That's not true even Obama 08 only polled 7.6

And won by 7.3. Joe is over 10% . Ari did the same thing on cherry picked state polls a few days ago. I lost respect for hom then.

[liberalmediaaddict]

46. I just watched him

Definitely raised my anxiety.
I think all Democrats have learned not to trust the polls after 2016. Especially the Biden Harris campaign. No one is taking anything for granted but it should be ok for Democrats to feel upbeat about how we're doing so far. Without the media trying to keep us in constant panic mode.

[beaglelover]

47. Yeah, that segment was a major downer today.

We need to GOTV to make sure Joe wins BIG!!

[PlanetBev]

49. I saw it too.

It made me crazy and I turned it off.

[oasis]

51. Ari's always been an annoying, too-clever-by-half, imp. He may pass

as a hip-hop aficionado with a law degree, but he's knows jack shit about anything else.

[Celerity]

77. absolutely disagree, I really like him a lot nt

[oasis]

80. What did you think of his interview of whacko Scott Adams (Dilbert)10/19?

[Celerity]

81. was not impressed, but I still like him, never going to agree 100% with anyone

[oasis]

82. Fair enough. nt

[treestar]

57. So do something!

To GOTV!!

[BainsBane]

67. Yes, Volunteer!

We need all the people doing GOTV as possible. I couldn't agree more.

https://joebiden.com/take-action/

And you can make calls from the safety of your own home, and the dialer hides your number.

[LiberalFighter]

61. Ari can't be trusted.

I think he is trying to justify why Biden should not be the candidate. Too much of a weasel.

[spooky3]

75. I think he was clearly trying to warn us not to be complacent or overconfident

and to be sure to contribute, vote, volunteer, etc.

[oasis]

79. Ari at it again Monday with "Dewey defeats Truman" headline pic.

He's throwing cold water on Biden's positive poll numbers.