Good news from Dave Wasserman about FL

[Jamesyu]

Link to tweet

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. So Wasserman is saying a drop of 6% for Trump in Sumter would predict a FL and thus EC loss? Nt

[qazplm135]

3. yes

because it's so close in Florida, and because the senior vote is such a large chunk of Florida, that if Trump loses high single digits from 2016 in that group, that's enough given the increased turnout likely in our vote to seal things for Biden.

This is literally the best possible spot in the state for him...if he's dropping 6 percent there, it's that bad or worse elsewhere.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Well I hope Steve Kornacki has got Sumter co. On his big board radar...nt

[qazplm135]

7. I'm not saying he's right or wrong

others disagree with him. But it's not a crazy proposition.

I think the reality is, it's probably going to still be close in Florida, and we will see a huge Biden lead and then the same day vote will eat into it...and how fast and how much will be the ballgame for Florida...just like every other election. Just this time the differences will be stark between early numbers and same day numbers, regardless of who wins.

[DarthDem]

8. Yes

Because voting trends generally don't happen in a vacuum. So if that's happening in Sumter County . . . .

[Goodheart]

2. I don't understand.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. He's saying we should have a decent understanding of who will win FL rather early...

He's basing this on the fact over 80% of the county that houses the Villages has already voted. Trump won this country by huge margins. If he sees a dip in his margins here, even by six points, it likely will spell doom for him statewide. And since most the ballots will be counted early in the night, we'll see these results shortly after polls close.

[Jamesyu]

4. Sumter is heavy senior population which Biden is doing well with

it would be game over in Florida and it would be an omen for red counties in Florida.

[Bleacher Creature]

9. Trump won Florida in 16 by running up his margins in red areas, so this makes perfect sense. NT