Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

catbyte

(34,718 posts)
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 06:00 PM Oct 2020

538 National Poll: 2016 vs today



In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%.

But beyond deficit, even more damning for Trump is the 5.9% undecided/3rd party share - less than half of 12.5% share four years ago. Far fewer late deciders.

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Replying to @NateSilver538

Biden's lead in our national polling average is up to 10.3 points. There's no sign that things are getting better for Trump; the ABC/Post poll showing him -12 postdates his leaving the hospital. The USC tracker has also been getting worse for Trump.



-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting that that thing is only .1% higher than in 2016. He hasn't expanded his cult one bit.
30 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
538 National Poll: 2016 vs today (Original Post) catbyte Oct 2020 OP
Undecideds Ananda62 Oct 2020 #1
Republicans undecided on abandoning Trump ThoughtCriminal Oct 2020 #29
It also shows how brutally unpopular Hillary was, through no fault of her own. bearsfootball516 Oct 2020 #2
And they're essentially the same candidate policy-wise. Yavin4 Oct 2020 #3
our candidate's unfavorables in 2016 were lots worse redstateblues Oct 2020 #6
But not on policy. Yavin4 Oct 2020 #8
To a degree you are correct, however Joe and Kamala are I believe much more Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #12
I agree with you. They both connect with people. Buckeyeblue Oct 2020 #25
I don't know about that. PTWB Oct 2020 #26
+1. Misogyny and small-town bias of the EC. radius777 Oct 2020 #27
Sadly, yes DeminPennswoods Oct 2020 #10
It breaks my heart but it's absolutely true peggysue2 Oct 2020 #16
This is good for those that are concerned and saying the polling was the same as 2016 DLCWIdem Oct 2020 #4
2016 election has zero relevance to 2020. People looking at 2016 are wasting beachbumbob Oct 2020 #5
I thought it was interesting that his numbers have not moved in 4 years. Sorry you didn't. catbyte Oct 2020 #7
Trumps numbers do not matter, the anger and energy of the opposition does. beachbumbob Oct 2020 #9
I disagree Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #13
2018 was the major shift. TwilightZone Oct 2020 #14
We will see Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #15
Trump has kept his same base (IMO racists and other bigots will always support a racist), but Doodley Oct 2020 #11
+1000 smirkymonkey Oct 2020 #19
Trump has the Fox News/talk radio crowd-- brainwashed andym Oct 2020 #17
This is not 2016 SoonerPride Oct 2020 #18
I don't get how Trump's numbers are the same. Marius25 Oct 2020 #20
Come election day, his numbers will be much lower..November 3,..9pm, Eastern Time.. Stuart G Oct 2020 #22
Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016. honest.abe Oct 2020 #23
Maybe a bit lower but probably a lot. Statistical Oct 2020 #30
real clear politics average at the end of the 2016 campaign tells a somewhat different story. onenote Oct 2020 #21
The trend is more important than the number... cbdo2007 Oct 2020 #24
It is different but has its own challenges. radius777 Oct 2020 #28

Ananda62

(259 posts)
1. Undecideds
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 06:02 PM
Oct 2020

I don’t understand how ANYONE could still be undecided. These people must be living in caves somewhere 🤷🏽?♀️

ThoughtCriminal

(14,131 posts)
29. Republicans undecided on abandoning Trump
Mon Oct 12, 2020, 03:27 PM
Oct 2020

If they are, I hope that they stay home since they would likely vote for Republicans down ballot even if they don't vote for Trump.

It's not like they are good at making choices.

bearsfootball516

(6,378 posts)
2. It also shows how brutally unpopular Hillary was, through no fault of her own.
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 06:03 PM
Oct 2020

Biden is running nearly seven points ahead of her.

Yavin4

(35,531 posts)
3. And they're essentially the same candidate policy-wise.
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 06:05 PM
Oct 2020

There's not much daylight between the two. Don't rule out misogyny.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
12. To a degree you are correct, however Joe and Kamala are I believe much more
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 07:23 PM
Oct 2020

personable and simply comes off better with folks. I don't think misogyny is the entire answer.

 

PTWB

(4,131 posts)
26. I don't know about that.
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 09:35 PM
Oct 2020

30 years of rightwing smears played a roll. I also don't think HRC was particularly charismatic or convincing even when being perfectly genuine. That fact was compounded by what appeared to be a very focus-group-oriented messaging campaign.

HRC was supremely qualified - one of the single most qualified candidates every to run for the office - but she had issues outside of her qualifications.

radius777

(3,635 posts)
27. +1. Misogyny and small-town bias of the EC.
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 09:41 PM
Oct 2020

Biden is an older white male who hails from small town America, which has an outsized role in elections due to the Electoral College, gerrymandering, voter supression, etc.

It just shows that all politics are identity politics, because Hillary and Joe are ideologically similar, of the same generation, etc. Yet Hillary received (and still receives) much more hate directed at her and is punished more severely for her 'mistakes'.

peggysue2

(10,948 posts)
16. It breaks my heart but it's absolutely true
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 08:16 PM
Oct 2020

Hillary was demonized ever since she stepped into the national arena. Biden has not experienced that kind of hatred. His approval/disapproval numbers are pretty neutral. Governing/policy-wise, there's not much of a difference between the two. And then, there was the sexism, ugly and nonstop. I'm hoping Harris will begin to shift the perceptions about women leaders. I think she has a very good chance of doing just that.

We shall see.

DLCWIdem

(1,580 posts)
4. This is good for those that are concerned and saying the polling was the same as 2016
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 06:15 PM
Oct 2020

However, the only poll that matters is on election day. So vote. And we should be telling people to plan their vote and vote early if they can

 

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
5. 2016 election has zero relevance to 2020. People looking at 2016 are wasting
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 06:18 PM
Oct 2020

their time. 2018 is the election to look at

 

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
9. Trumps numbers do not matter, the anger and energy of the opposition does.
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 06:29 PM
Oct 2020

And been building for 4 fucking years and 2018 was and remains the spring board for 2020, not 2016.

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
13. I disagree
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 07:25 PM
Oct 2020

2020 is the election to look at. I do not see either 2016 or 18 as offering much in the way of information that is relevant. Neither had a pandemic in the mix.

TwilightZone

(25,691 posts)
14. 2018 was the major shift.
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 08:08 PM
Oct 2020

It does indeed provide some very good information on 2020. It was a referendum on Trump and foreshadowed where we are now. especially in the areas of voter registration numbers and turnout. 2020 will look just like it.

Doodley

(9,277 posts)
11. Trump has kept his same base (IMO racists and other bigots will always support a racist), but
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 07:05 PM
Oct 2020

opposition to Trump has been energized in a way it wasn't in 2016. It is clear far more oppose Trump and are willing to vote Biden as a vehicle for that opposition than support Trump.

andym

(5,457 posts)
17. Trump has the Fox News/talk radio crowd-- brainwashed
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 08:23 PM
Oct 2020

and those with making abortion illegal as their key issue. Not sure how many others he has.

 

Marius25

(3,213 posts)
20. I don't get how Trump's numbers are the same.
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 08:48 PM
Oct 2020

We've been seeing a lot of people who voted for him in 2016 say they aren't voting for him this year. Should his number be significantly lower?

Stuart G

(38,534 posts)
22. Come election day, his numbers will be much lower..November 3,..9pm, Eastern Time..
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 08:56 PM
Oct 2020

The numbers will not be the same as 2016. Just wait and see,,,,
How low Trump's numbers will be,
That is the key,
And Donald Trump will flee....

Oh well.......I tried.....

Statistical

(19,264 posts)
30. Maybe a bit lower but probably a lot.
Mon Oct 12, 2020, 03:47 PM
Oct 2020

Saw one poll that shows 92% of people who voted for Trump in 2016 will again. So yeah there is some erosion but sadly not as much as you think.

Most people who voted for Trump got EXACTLY what they wanted and they want more.

The only good news is Trump's base is 40% of the population not 60% because with cultish support like that the country would be doomed if his base was any larger.

cbdo2007

(9,213 posts)
24. The trend is more important than the number...
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 09:27 PM
Oct 2020

I dont have the graphic to post but I'd you look at the Clinton trend vs the Biden trend, Clinton bounced up and down and there were even times where it got really close.

On Biden though he has been 8-10 points ahead for MONTHS and his average and Trump's averages are extremely stable. of course we all need to vote bit Biden just needs to glide on through and let Trump be an idiot and this should be an easier win than Clinton would have been.

radius777

(3,635 posts)
28. It is different but has its own challenges.
Sun Oct 11, 2020, 09:58 PM
Oct 2020

2020 is much more favorable terrain on paper for us; but the reality is we are in the middle of a pandemic with unprecedented levels of mail in voting in states that lack a history of doing it. Mail-in voting during the primaries across the country saw a relatively high rate of 'spolied ballots' (those discarded on technicalities). Polls show Dem voters are heavily the ones using mail in, where GOP voters are going in person. Then add in the typical GOP voter suppression tactics and this election is far from certain. Trump/Turtle are desperate and will do anything to hold onto power, and we have to hope our Dem lawyers etc are ready to fight as hard as Repubs do. We can't have another 2000 situation where we were played (Brooks Brothers Riot, etc) and a RW Supreme Court gave the election to Bush.

So while things look good on paper, in reality we need to vote like our lives depend on it and be prepared to battle it out afterwards if necessary.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»538 National Poll: 2016 v...