Hoosiers -- Trump leads Biden by 10 in Indiana

[Le Roi de Pot]

Is this due to Mike Pence? How did they vote for President Obama in 2008?

[Buckeyeblue]

1. Indiana is basically Kentucky

[shrike3]

13. Except for blue dots like Bloomington and the part that is basically part of Chicagoland.

[sunonmars]

2. Trump won there by 20% in 2016

Massive improvement

2008 - 49/48 Obama
2012 - 54/44 Romney
2016 - 57/37 Trump.

[mucifer]

3. That's Horrible! I feel bad for my friend who lives there. But she lives near

Chicago in a more liberal area.

[SheltieLover]

4. Sold to the only bidder!

fking idiots

[roamer65]

5. That means a 10 pt shift.

There are a LOT of marginal seats elsewhere we are going to pick up.

[Le Roi de Pot]

6. My Subaru Outback is made in Indiana - the outback is super popular among liberals

Wish it were made in a more liberal Auto state

[Me.]

7. In What Poll?

[Le Roi de Pot]

9. 538 average

[Statistical]

8. Indiana is dark red. 2008 was very much an anomaly

Very high black voter turnout and Obama is from the region. Even then Obama only won by about 1%. That was short lived. In re-election Obama lost the state by 10%. Biden is doing about the same. Maybe without Pence in the picture, Biden would be doing a bit better but at the state level Indiana is way more conservative that the national average. Biden right now is about +10 nationally and -10% in Indiana so Indiana is about 20% more conservative than the national average.

Year and margin (+ is Dem win, - is Thug win)
1992 -7%
1996 -4%
2000 -16%
2004 -21%
2008 +1%
2012 -10%
2016 -19%
2020 -10% (projected)

Honestly if a Democratic candidate (for President) wins Indiana is likely doesn't matter because it means they have won 400+ EV in a landslide for the history books.

[Captain Zero]

11. The Libertarians are taking a lot of votes this year

From the Republicans. Upset Republicans aren't voting for Joe. They are voting Libertarian. That's how bad it is. It could even disrupt the governor's race.

Indianapolis, Bloomington, Lafayette (where Subarus are built), South Bend, the Chicago area known as Duh Region, Vincennes, Terre Haute, and down along the Ohio River are blue areas. But sometimes purple. The old north central smaller union towns could be drawn into a democratic district but with gerymandering they are conveniently in separate districts.

Indiana 5th is in play this year. North Indy and north suburbs in that district. Along with plenty of farm fields further north. Secure.Act.Blue will let you donate to the Dem running there, Christina Hale. Help us out with $5 ?

[Statistical]

12. Agreed. Sorry I wasn't clear. Sounds like there are winnable races there.

I was talking statewide for President but should have been clearer. I just donated to Hale to make up for it.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

16. Yeah, it's easy to overlook what a massive anomaly 2008 was

Still, a word of caution - Romney (narrowly) won by more than polls suggested in 2016 and Trump outdid them by 8.3 - the average suggested he would win by 10.7.

With that in mind, today’s increased polarisation and how deep red it was four years ago, even finishing 12-14 behind would suggest Trump is way behind nationwide. I believe it’s usually one of the first states to close on election night, so while we know it’s going to be red, it would be worth watching the data as it comes in to look for erosions in Trump’s support vs 2016. It might well be a sign of what is to come elsewhere.

[Demsrule86]

10. Obama was from Illiniois...so Southern Illinois borders Indiana

[tritsofme]

14. It was really Northwest Indiana, which is part of the Chicago metro area

That carried the day for Obama in 2008, along with Indianapolis. Outside of St. Louis metro area and some college towns, Southern Illinois is as red as their bordering counterparts in IN,MO, KY.

[Niagara]

15. I was born a Hoosier.

The top half of Indiana is pretty much in the rust belt and houses many religious Hoosiers throughout the state.



Much to my surprise, Indiana turned blue for the 2008 Presidential election and the Democratic percentage was 49.9% to Republican 48.9% for that election. The last time it turned blue was in 1964.



https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/8/13563106/election-map-historical-vote