I'd say it's a 40-40 split, and that 10 in the middle is a LEGIT UNDECIDED VOTER pretty much every election. Its white suburbia and a lot of that 10 percent just dont pay much attention TBH. A lot of em appreciate the theory of liberal policies, but also hate voting for them and feeling like it wasnt delivered, AND are not politically aware that Republicans have figured out how to manipulate that grievance.
If the polls show that 10% has made up they're minds, itll go blue. Not by much, but by enough. To KEEP it that way 2 years from now, Dems will have to DELIVER something TANGIBLE to those voters.
Min.Wage increases.
Federal day care assistance.
Free or massively reduced public college tuition.
Raise taxes on the RICH AND WALL STREET ( and do it as quietly as possible).
Expanded medicare/cheaper healthcare.
MASSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING BILL FOR LOCAL PROJECTS (theres a lot of skilled labor type-guys in this area; they dont mind doing the work, but they want they're cut, so to speak)
They will have to be able to not only SEE IT WORKING IN THEIR OWN LIVES, but know it came from DEMS.
Otherwise, the 'both sides are the same' argument will kick in, (especially if trump admin prosecutions dominate airwaves...do that as low key as possible, as well please), and the district will lose its blue rep in either 2022 or 2024
Finally, i agree its flippable this year. KEEPING IT FLIPPED, will require New Deal levels of legislative success and good governance for the next 24 months---dems have to bring their A-Game to american suburbia now, and not let themselves get into a kicking match with the ankle-biters who will complain no matter what happens. DELIVERY. THATS THE KEY HERE.
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