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Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:42 AM

 

IBD/TIPP Shows Much Tighter Race

Biden with just a roughly 5 point lead.



]https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/

43 replies, 1619 views

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Reply IBD/TIPP Shows Much Tighter Race (Original post)
Inablueway Oct 2020 OP
edhopper Oct 2020 #1
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #2
PTWB Oct 2020 #22
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #29
PTWB Oct 2020 #32
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #36
PTWB Oct 2020 #38
Loki Liesmith Oct 2020 #3
PTWB Oct 2020 #23
Loki Liesmith Oct 2020 #25
PTWB Oct 2020 #27
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #30
Jamesyu Oct 2020 #4
Vivienne235729 Oct 2020 #28
RandySF Oct 2020 #5
Eid Ma Clack Shaw Oct 2020 #6
greenjar_01 Oct 2020 #7
helpisontheway Oct 2020 #8
ElementaryPenguin Oct 2020 #9
beachbumbob Oct 2020 #10
Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #11
Amishman Oct 2020 #19
Johnny2X2X Oct 2020 #20
orwell Oct 2020 #12
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #37
Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #13
PubliusEnigma Oct 2020 #14
David__77 Oct 2020 #15
Progressive dog Oct 2020 #16
Happy Hoosier Oct 2020 #17
Statistical Oct 2020 #18
My Pet Orangutan Oct 2020 #21
regnaD kciN Oct 2020 #24
linda52 Oct 2020 #26
PTWB Oct 2020 #33
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #39
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #40
GeorgeGist Oct 2020 #31
PTWB Oct 2020 #34
Azathoth Oct 2020 #35
Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #41
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2020 #42
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2020 #43

Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:44 AM

1. There sampling is problematic

there is no way Biden is that far behind with 45 to 64 year olds.

Age Trump Biden
18-44 37.5% 53.0% 3.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5%
45-64 52.4% 43.6% 1.7% 0.2% - 0.9%
65+ 42.4% 53.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6%

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:45 AM

2. Sure...

Must have taken some effort to find this particular poll amongst so much good news.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:00 AM

22. Joe's campaign manager has been sounding the alarm.

The polls in the swing states are close. This massive lead is a scam which is being used to suppress the Democratic vote.

The only answer is to vote vote vote.

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Response to PTWB (Reply #22)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:55 AM

29. No she hasn't...she just wants to avoid complacency...right wing BS with bad sampling.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #29)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:59 AM

32. Yes she has.

She specifically said that in critical states the race is “functionally tied.” That is a direct quote.

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Response to PTWB (Reply #32)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 06:04 PM

36. I don't believe it...may need money. And today she said they were ahead.

"Democratic nominee Joe Biden's campaign is urging supporters not to “become complacent” despite polling that shows the former vice president leading President Trump

DONALD JOHN TRUMP
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Fauci says he was 'absolutely not' surprised Trump got coronavirus after Rose Garden event
Biden: Trump 'continues to lie to us' about coronavirus
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nationally and in key battleground states, adding that supporters should “campaign like we’re trailing.”

In a memo obtained by The Hill on Saturday, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said that with almost two weeks left until Election Day, supporters should not automatically assume that Biden is guaranteed to win. "

Two days ago.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #36)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 06:07 PM

38. You think she was lying?

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:47 AM

3. Polls exist on a continuum. Average them.

Is there some larger point you are making?

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:01 AM

23. Probably the same point that Joe's campaign manager has been making.

She’s said that the polls in swing states are essentially tied and we need to vote. Joe’s own campaign manager says their internal polling shows the election is much closer than national polls suggest.

Vote!!!

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Response to PTWB (Reply #23)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:13 AM

25. Yeah she didn't actually say that

I have the story right here

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/18/925102703/biden-campaign-warns-supporters-donald-trump-can-still-win-this-race

“Neck and neck” is not a quantitative term. It is, however, useful for expectation setting and motivation.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #25)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:39 AM

27. You cherry picked an article that didn't include that quote.

The 'neck and neck' quote is from the SAME MEMO in which Jen O'Malley Dillon (Joe's campaign manager) says that in critical states the race is "functionally tied." Further, saying 'neck and neck' doesn't mean 'tied' is semantics.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:56 AM

30. The concern is strong in this one...

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:47 AM

4. So much concern....

Anything to show a horse race.

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Response to Jamesyu (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:45 AM

28. THIS. EXACTLY. I think the media does this every year to show a tight race for ratings.

But everything I am reading shows Biden is way ahead. How could he not if trump is losing seniors, suburban women, 11% of evangelicals, moderate Republicans, uneducated white men....that's a lot of loss to be "neck and neck".

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:49 AM

5. It's consistent with Biden's 8-point average lead.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:50 AM

6. They also had Trump winning the popular vote by 2% in 2016

There’s a reason the polling average (give or take the MOE) is generally the best way to view a race.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:51 AM

7. Welcome to DU

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:52 AM

8. Look at an average of the polls..However, national polls don't matter at this point. Nt

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:53 AM

9. BULLSHIT POLL!!!!!

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 09:55 AM

10. pay no attention to polls or 538, its about GOTV now

 

I could care less going forward for any polls or 538 forecasts

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:00 AM

11. A/B rated pollster

It's a valid data point, but a clear outlier. The average is 10.7, that's where we are. Another LV A/B rated poll came out today with Biden up 56-38.

Biden is up 10.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:50 AM

19. Also I think the 538 poll rankings are more about repeatability not absolute accuracy

For example a poll that is always left biased by 5% but always within 1% of reality once that bias is removed would be a very useful poll.

The opposite, a poll that is always left biased by 1% but only within 5% of reality once the biased is removed would be almost meaningless.

This is why Monmouth can be an A+ poll despite having a +1.3 blue bias.

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Response to Amishman (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:54 AM

20. Accuracy is a major factor in 538's rankings.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:02 AM

12. Investors Business Daily...

...is a very Pro-Trump operation.

They are mainly purveyors of stock market information but they have always been pro-republican.

For investing information they are great...not so much for political opinion.

I would put them to the right of Rassmussen.

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Response to orwell (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 06:06 PM

37. +10000

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:14 AM

13. Outliers gonna outlie

In the average of all polls, including the Republican-leaning IBD, Biden’s lead is growing, and is now +10.7%.

Your concern is noted.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:19 AM

14. so, you're saying Biden's floor is a 5-point victory? or is your concern deeper??

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:24 AM

15. Sounds alright.

Every vote counts.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:31 AM

16. There are always outliers

First off, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is attracting more support than Hillary Clinton did among white voters as a whole — especially white women, older white voters and those without a four-year college degree — which has helped him build a substantial lead of around 10 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
That is from 10-19 (today)

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:32 AM

17. And?

Look, I get it. People are nervous. I am nervous. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Another poll is in the 538 mix that shows the race at +18 for Biden! They are both outliers.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:36 AM

18. The good news is 5% is a pretty large win.

Year Democratic Margin (+ for D, - for R)
1992 5.6
1996 8.5
2000 0.5
2004 -2.4
2008 7.2
2012 3.9
2016 1.8

If the lowest margin polls is showing +5 that is pretty damn amazing.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 10:57 AM

21. The Investors Business Daily has a pro-GOP bias

and so does their polling.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:12 AM

24. IBD/TIPP has been between +5 and +7 for a long time...

Their methodology has always painted it as a tighter race than most others. Not seeing any drastic movement overall.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 11:19 AM

26. 20 polls show a steady lead, but lets find 1 to chicken out about.

 

sigh.

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Response to linda52 (Reply #26)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 12:02 PM

33. How do you feel about Joe's campaign manager?

And her comments about their internal polling?

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Response to PTWB (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 06:07 PM

39. Motivational...stay focused...maybe needs more money.

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Response to PTWB (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 06:07 PM

40. Motivational...stay focused...maybe needs more money.

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Response to GeorgeGist (Reply #31)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 12:04 PM

34. I don't rec often.

It seems ... frivolous? I don’t know what you can discern from the number of recs someone has or doesn’t have.

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 12:09 PM

35. That's probably what it will be on election day

Anyone who thinks Biden will win by more than about 4-5 points is willfully deluding himself. And the margin is gonna be a lot slimmer in several of the crucial states.

At least 45% of the voters in this country are going to vote for Trump despite everything from the past four years. That is the reality of our country.

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Response to Azathoth (Reply #35)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 06:08 PM

41. Nope...

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Response to Inablueway (Original post)


Response to Inablueway (Original post)

Mon Oct 19, 2020, 06:16 PM

43. Thank you for your input.

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