IBD/TIPP Shows Much Tighter Race

[Inablueway]

Biden with just a roughly 5 point lead.



]https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/

[edhopper]

1. There sampling is problematic

there is no way Biden is that far behind with 45 to 64 year olds.

Age Trump Biden
18-44 37.5% 53.0% 3.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5%
45-64 52.4% 43.6% 1.7% 0.2% - 0.9%
65+ 42.4% 53.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6%

[Demsrule86]

2. Sure...

Must have taken some effort to find this particular poll amongst so much good news.

[PTWB]

22. Joe's campaign manager has been sounding the alarm.

The polls in the swing states are close. This massive lead is a scam which is being used to suppress the Democratic vote.

The only answer is to vote vote vote.

[Demsrule86]

29. No she hasn't...she just wants to avoid complacency...right wing BS with bad sampling.

[PTWB]

32. Yes she has.

She specifically said that in critical states the race is “functionally tied.” That is a direct quote.

[Demsrule86]

36. I don't believe it...may need money. And today she said they were ahead.

"Democratic nominee Joe Biden's campaign is urging supporters not to “become complacent” despite polling that shows the former vice president leading President Trump

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nationally and in key battleground states, adding that supporters should “campaign like we’re trailing.”

In a memo obtained by The Hill on Saturday, Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said that with almost two weeks left until Election Day, supporters should not automatically assume that Biden is guaranteed to win. "

Two days ago.

[PTWB]

38. You think she was lying?

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Polls exist on a continuum. Average them.

Is there some larger point you are making?

[PTWB]

23. Probably the same point that Joe's campaign manager has been making.

She’s said that the polls in swing states are essentially tied and we need to vote. Joe’s own campaign manager says their internal polling shows the election is much closer than national polls suggest.

Vote!!!

[Loki Liesmith]

25. Yeah she didn't actually say that

I have the story right here

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/18/925102703/biden-campaign-warns-supporters-donald-trump-can-still-win-this-race

“Neck and neck” is not a quantitative term. It is, however, useful for expectation setting and motivation.

[PTWB]

27. You cherry picked an article that didn't include that quote.

The 'neck and neck' quote is from the SAME MEMO in which Jen O'Malley Dillon (Joe's campaign manager) says that in critical states the race is "functionally tied." Further, saying 'neck and neck' doesn't mean 'tied' is semantics.

'We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied — and that we need to campaign like we’re trailing.'

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521550-biden-camp-warns-supporters-not-to-get-complacent-campaign-like-were

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/joe-bidens-campaign-manager-says-polls-favoring-him-are-inflated/ar-BB1a83s9?li=BBnbfcL

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/17/biden-campaign-warns-donors-race-far-closer-than-coverage-suggests/#2472b973d639

[Demsrule86]

30. The concern is strong in this one...

[Jamesyu]

4. So much concern....

Anything to show a horse race.

[Vivienne235729]

28. THIS. EXACTLY. I think the media does this every year to show a tight race for ratings.

But everything I am reading shows Biden is way ahead. How could he not if trump is losing seniors, suburban women, 11% of evangelicals, moderate Republicans, uneducated white men....that's a lot of loss to be "neck and neck".

[RandySF]

5. It's consistent with Biden's 8-point average lead.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

6. They also had Trump winning the popular vote by 2% in 2016

There’s a reason the polling average (give or take the MOE) is generally the best way to view a race.

[greenjar_01]

7. Welcome to DU

[helpisontheway]

8. Look at an average of the polls..However, national polls don't matter at this point. Nt

[ElementaryPenguin]

9. BULLSHIT POLL!!!!!

[beachbumbob]

10. pay no attention to polls or 538, its about GOTV now

I could care less going forward for any polls or 538 forecasts

[Johnny2X2X]

11. A/B rated pollster

It's a valid data point, but a clear outlier. The average is 10.7, that's where we are. Another LV A/B rated poll came out today with Biden up 56-38.

Biden is up 10.

[Amishman]

19. Also I think the 538 poll rankings are more about repeatability not absolute accuracy

For example a poll that is always left biased by 5% but always within 1% of reality once that bias is removed would be a very useful poll.

The opposite, a poll that is always left biased by 1% but only within 5% of reality once the biased is removed would be almost meaningless.

This is why Monmouth can be an A+ poll despite having a +1.3 blue bias.

[Johnny2X2X]

20. Accuracy is a major factor in 538's rankings.

Accuracy and methodology are the biggest factors.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

[orwell]

12. Investors Business Daily...

...is a very Pro-Trump operation.

They are mainly purveyors of stock market information but they have always been pro-republican.

For investing information they are great...not so much for political opinion.

I would put them to the right of Rassmussen.

[Demsrule86]

37. +10000

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Outliers gonna outlie

In the average of all polls, including the Republican-leaning IBD, Biden’s lead is growing, and is now +10.7%.

Your concern is noted.

[PubliusEnigma]

14. so, you're saying Biden's floor is a 5-point victory? or is your concern deeper??

[David__77]

15. Sounds alright.

Every vote counts.

[Progressive dog]

16. There are always outliers

First off, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is attracting more support than Hillary Clinton did among white voters as a whole — especially white women, older white voters and those without a four-year college degree — which has helped him build a substantial lead of around 10 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
That is from 10-19 (today)

[Happy Hoosier]

17. And?

Look, I get it. People are nervous. I am nervous. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Another poll is in the 538 mix that shows the race at +18 for Biden! They are both outliers.

[Statistical]

18. The good news is 5% is a pretty large win.

Year Democratic Margin (+ for D, - for R)
1992 5.6
1996 8.5
2000 0.5
2004 -2.4
2008 7.2
2012 3.9
2016 1.8

If the lowest margin polls is showing +5 that is pretty damn amazing.

[My Pet Orangutan]

21. The Investors Business Daily has a pro-GOP bias

and so does their polling.

[regnaD kciN]

24. IBD/TIPP has been between +5 and +7 for a long time...

Their methodology has always painted it as a tighter race than most others. Not seeing any drastic movement overall.

[linda52]

26. 20 polls show a steady lead, but lets find 1 to chicken out about.

sigh.

[PTWB]

33. How do you feel about Joe's campaign manager?

And her comments about their internal polling?

[Demsrule86]

39. Motivational...stay focused...maybe needs more money.

[Demsrule86]

40. Motivational...stay focused...maybe needs more money.

[GeorgeGist]

31. No Recs.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=359671&sub=recs

[PTWB]

34. I don't rec often.

It seems ... frivolous? I don’t know what you can discern from the number of recs someone has or doesn’t have.

[Azathoth]

35. That's probably what it will be on election day

Anyone who thinks Biden will win by more than about 4-5 points is willfully deluding himself. And the margin is gonna be a lot slimmer in several of the crucial states.

At least 45% of the voters in this country are going to vote for Trump despite everything from the past four years. That is the reality of our country.

[Demsrule86]

41. Nope...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. Thank you for your input.