Now Even The "Unskewed" Polling Has Obama Out In Front

[DemocratSinceBirth]

s we explained in yesterday's Slatest PM newsletter, some conservatives are becoming increasingly vocal regarding their doubts about recent polls that show President Obama pulling out in front of Mitt Romney. In short, they contend that pretty much everyone but the conservative pollsters over at Rasmussen are relying on turnout models that unfairly favor Democrats. If the models were tweaked appropriately, they say, Mitt Romney would have a substantial lead coming down the home stretch.

Or at least that's what their "unskewed" polls had been showing up until yesterday when Fox News released its latest survey, which showed Obama up by 5 points, 48 percent to Romney's 43.


http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2012/09/28/dean_chambes_unskewed_poll_tweaked_fox_news_survey_has_obama_beating_romney_.html

[Flaggkilledgod]

1. God forbid

God forbid reality get in the way of republicans march to victory. I heard they have SECRET POLLS that show Willard up by 30 in every swing state! lol

[Indykatie]

2. Obama is Ahead by 1 in Rasmussen's Tracking Today - Even Ras Can't Keep UP the Pretense

[Panasonic]

8. For those who are panicking about Ras' polls (as some of you are)

just add +5 to it - that's the real number.

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

3. Just wait until the Newspaper endorsements start to come out...

Romney will fall even further behind.

I thought he was finished when he announced his pick of Paul Ryan for VP, and who could have imagined what a terrible month he has had since then.

I liken Romney and his campaign to absurdest improvisational comedy theater.

It has kept me laughing.

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

5. He does have me thoroughly entertained....

I agree about the comedy theater. What's next- Shoes for Industry, Shoes for the Dead!

[outsideworld]

4. lmaoo

nov 6 cant come soon enough

[cali]

6. I know people here don't want to hear this but

Rasmussen was one of the most accurate polling outfits in 2008.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/12/659768/-Best-and-Worst-Pollsters-of-2008-chart

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. That's Because There Were Actual Results By Which His Final Prediction Could Be Measured

There was no more incentive for him to create an alternate narrative.

According to Nate Sliver at 538.com Rasmussen's polls in the 2010 midterms exhibited a 5.9% Republican bias.

Also, Rasmussen showed a 12% generic ballot advantage in 010 for the Republicans. Their actual generic advantage was 6.4%. That's nearly 200% off... The only pollster worse was Gallup who showed a 15% generic Republican advantage.

In 00 Rasmussen showed Bush with a 9% pop vote advantage. As we now he lost the pop vote by .05%

Fast forward to now. Rasmussen is the only pollster or just about the only pollster showing a more Republican than Democratic electorate. That has never happened in the history of recent presidential elections. The closest was a tie in 04.

I'm not on my own computer or I would provide links for all my assertions as I have all this bookmarked. Well, all but one of my assertions as my first assertion is subjective.