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Sat Oct 24, 2020, 11:22 AM

The media keeps suggesting there may be hidden Trump voters...

Last edited Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:09 PM - Edit history (1)

They are hidden all right: in fact they are so hard to see because they are being blocked out by millions of disgruntled former Trump supporters and newly engaged Democratic voters.

Of course there are some "hidden" or "secret" or "shy" Trump voters. With some 160 million or so voters out there, there are some of everything. You know what else there are? There are "hidden" or "secret" or "shy" Biden voters too. Those include voters too embarrassed to admit out loud that they could have been so wrong about Trump. Those include life long "Red Dog" Republicans who have a hard time admitting that, for the first time in their life, they will vote for a Democrat' and not just any Democrat, but Barack Obama's VP who has chosen a Black woman to be his own VP. Those voters also include some Republican women married to blow hard Trump supporters who just don't want to rock the boat at home.

But focusing on hidden voters misses the forest for the trees. The American electorate changed dramatically the day after Election Day of 2016, and all evidence supports a conclusion that nothing will change it back while Donald J. Trump remains in office. We have held annual elections since then in 2017, 2018, and 2019, along with numerous special elections throughout those years, and in almost every case Democrats have outperformed. Forget worrying about "hidden voters", and look at the masses assembling in plain sight eager to remove Trump from the presidency. Look at grassroots fundraising, look at early and mail voting, look at all the voices screaming at the top of their lungs that this is the most important election of our lives and everyone has to vote!

Democrats and others who lean to the left are not going to sit out this election. Complacency might have been an issue in prior election cycles prior, but not in this one. Our side is turning out, and we are being joined by increasing numbers of Republicans and right leaning Independents who still actually believe in decency, and the integrity of both our Republic and our international alliances.

There are just two real arguments given for why Biden supporters should not express confidence in his victory. Actually there is only one, the other argument is only relevant for pollsters and pundits. Those political pros are worried about damaging their credibility if they somehow get it wrong and openly suggest that Trump is going down hard but then get it wrong, after Trump already defied the odds once in 2016. Their reputation potentially getting besmirched might be something for them to lose some sleep over since their living depends on it, but worrying about bragging rights doesn't make the list of actual voter concerns: Our lives may well be riding on the outcome of this election.

The other reason given to reign in the specter of "over confidence" is that "over confidence" leads to slackening off, pf not following through, of failing to do all that we can and must do to defeat Donald Trump. May I suggest that there is a core difference between the concept of "confidence" and that of "over confidence?" No one, by literal definition, defends "over confidence" or says that it is a good thing. Over confidence does not exist on the Democratic side of the spectrum this year, because we are not even confident that we can reverse most of the damage to our country that Trump has already done even if Joe Biden is elected President. We are scared for the future of our Democracy. Just evicting Trump from the White House isn't enough. We need a resounding victory to roll back Trumpism with or without Trump in office. We need solid control of the U.S. Senate, we need control of State Legislatures. And we need margins of victory substantial enough that it becomes near impossible for Republicans to steal this election.

And to achieve that we need confidence that all of our efforts can be rewarded. Virtually any scenario conceivable for Trump to steal this election starts out with a premise that the polls must have all been wrong, that "hidden Trump voters" somehow propelled him into an upset victory. Fuck that. We are laying the groundwork for a contested election if we buy into the plausibility of that scenario. We are handing them their weapon of choice on a silver plate by conjuring up the menace of "hidden Trump voters" now. They are like left over ghosts from Halloween, you can't see them but they must be there. Meanwhile we have hoards of defecting Seniors and principled Republicans deserting Trump, and legions of women, highly energized African Americans, and passionately engaged youth coming out for Biden/Harris.

If Trump supporters become demoralized less of them will come out to vote. If they think that Trump still has a chance more of them will come out to vote. I say let's go all in with confidence of victory, and celebrate the likelihood of election results that will go down in history by making additional donations to Democrats, additional phone calls for Democrats, additional outreach to our friends and neighbors for Democrats. Let's pile on with enthusiasm. We have work to do, both before and after Election Day.

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Reply The media keeps suggesting there may be hidden Trump voters... (Original post)
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 OP
dalton99a Oct 2020 #1
Oscarthegreat Oct 2020 #19
Proud Liberal Dem Oct 2020 #2
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #3
The Mouth Oct 2020 #8
Iggo Oct 2020 #49
radius777 Oct 2020 #52
Thekaspervote Oct 2020 #4
exboyfil Oct 2020 #5
DENVERPOPS Oct 2020 #10
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #13
olegramps Oct 2020 #38
Talitha Oct 2020 #18
DENVERPOPS Oct 2020 #20
Cheezoholic Oct 2020 #6
not_the_one Oct 2020 #7
Granny M Oct 2020 #51
bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #9
Cetacea Oct 2020 #11
greenjar_01 Oct 2020 #12
The Magistrate Oct 2020 #14
Hulk Oct 2020 #15
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #17
Brainfodder Oct 2020 #16
AZ8theist Oct 2020 #21
Mr.Bill Oct 2020 #22
Windy City Charlie Oct 2020 #26
LiberalFighter Oct 2020 #23
greenjar_01 Oct 2020 #24
yonder Oct 2020 #41
SWBTATTReg Oct 2020 #25
quaker bill Oct 2020 #27
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #37
radius777 Oct 2020 #53
NorthOf270 Oct 2020 #28
C Moon Oct 2020 #33
azureblue Oct 2020 #29
Initech Oct 2020 #30
not_the_one Oct 2020 #31
C Moon Oct 2020 #32
OneBlueSky Oct 2020 #34
SWBTATTReg Oct 2020 #43
Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #35
Trumpocalypse Oct 2020 #36
Nitram Oct 2020 #39
nature-lover Oct 2020 #40
Name removed Oct 2020 #42
ismnotwasm Oct 2020 #44
zackymilly Oct 2020 #45
marble falls Oct 2020 #46
GETPLANING Oct 2020 #47
warmfeet Oct 2020 #48
Illumination Oct 2020 #50
Earthshine2 Oct 2020 #54

Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 11:29 AM

1. Let them go back under the rocks

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Response to dalton99a (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:53 PM

19. Hidden voters larking in the shadows

 

There are probably a few million Trump voters who are embarrassed to admit they would still vote for Trump, but since no one knows how many of them there are, there's no use in speculating about them. As far as the "undecided":Anyone who is still undecided 10 days before the elections after 4 years of Trump is either going to vote for him or not vote at all, so I would count on even one undecided vote going to Biden under any circumstances.

The only thing we should do is vote, and vote smart. Don't wait till the last minute, don't count on the US Postal Service to deliver your ballot if you vote by mail, locate an official drop off box and deliver it personally, and if you reside in a heavily red area, count on being harassed by Trump goons and find a solution if you insist on voting in person.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 11:35 AM

2. I think that most of them are so-called "Undecided Voters"

Like his policies, embarrassed by his behavior and antics. I don't think that there are actually a lot of true "undecided voters" out there because I'm just not sure what they're undecided about. If this were an election between, say, George H.W. Bush and Joe Biden, then, yeah, sure, I can probably see where there might be some indecision. Or Bob Dole and Joe Biden. But between Donald Trump (+4 years of history) and Joe Biden really should not be hard to decide unless you voted for Trump in 2016 and are stuck trying to figure out if you're going to vote for him again or how you might rationalize such a decision.

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 11:42 AM

3. I agree. Most "hidden Trump voters" out rhere previously supported Trump

and are uncomfortable admitting that they may support him again after all that he has done. But even if he wins back all of those wavering prior supporters he's not adding anything to his coalition. And of course he won't be winning back ALL of them, if he's lucky, when push comes to shove, he will hold onto most of them. That's still a shrinking pie, while Biden is growing his potential base with approval ratings that are literally rising as this race proceeds.

And sure, Trump will bag some rural white voters who sat out 2016. Biden will win far more Democratic coalition voters who sat out 2016 than Trump can even dream of.

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 12:36 PM

8. Here in Northern California

I think anyone who put a Trump sign in their yard or on their car would become a social outcast in a second. It won't matter here, since Biden will carry CA, but I'd bet money that there is not a single poll capturing quite the number of votes Trump will get.

He speaks to much more of the population than many of us really want to admit, and that hasn't changed from 2016.

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 08:24 PM

49. They're trying to figure out a way to say out loud they're voting for Trump without being shunned.

That's the current definition of "undecided."

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 05:55 AM

52. Undecideds tend to break heavily for the challenger.

There are always undecideds and this election has less than 2016, which is what allowed it to shift around so much as news broke.

This time the race is far more steady, and the undecideds likely will break 2:1 in favor of Biden.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 11:45 AM

4. The media has got nothing else. There's going to have to be a whole lot of them!!

With the polls being what they are, there are are very few undecided voters..maybe 3-5%.
Dotard would have to have every one of the undecideds vote for him...and flip 2-4% of Biden voters just to come close to even with Biden

They look so ridiculous when they spin that kind of crap!!

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 12:15 PM

5. Yes they are virtual and located in the voting software

If we get the House, Senate, and Presidency; we must do something about that. Some sort of universal voting rights act that standardizes the methods of voting with absolutely secure audit track back (ie paper ballots locked up).

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Response to exboyfil (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 01:20 PM

10. YES, my thinking exactly

Who knows how many Russian Votes for Republicans are floating around out in Cyberspace, just waiting to be released the day of the election !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

One of Hitler's minions said: "We don't need to control the votes, just the people that count them......" That was the exact thing that happened in 2000 and 2004.

I believe that what happened in the Obama elections was that they rigged the votes to win by a reasonable percentage and the voting for Obama was such a landslide that took them by surprise......

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Response to DENVERPOPS (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:05 PM

13. Which is a good reason why it is important to firmly establish the narrative Trump is losing big

...rather than playing along with the possible existence of a hypothetical massive one sided "hidden vote" for Trump that would be used to "explain" how all of the polls were wrong. NOW is the time to trumpet Trump's pending loss rather than accept unchallenged purely speculative explanations for how he can still win.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #13)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 09:01 AM

38. I appreciate your input, but isn't it a two edged sword and the danger of over confidence.

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Response to DENVERPOPS (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:21 PM

18. "Russian Votes for Republicans are floating around out in Cyberspace"

Russian vote-flipping is my deepest fear.

We must make it a landslide for Joe.

Bury the damned Repugs.

No. More. Bullshit.

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Response to Talitha (Reply #18)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 04:23 PM

20. Vote flipping

worked well for them in 2004 especially.................

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 12:27 PM

6. I believe many are hidden...

under 6 feet of dirt unfortunately. Lock him up

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 12:29 PM

7. OF COURSE there are hidden turd voters.

 

There are also hidden Biden voters.

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Response to not_the_one (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 05:04 AM

51. That's what I think, as well.

There are a lot of them who are voting for Biden but don't want the arguments with Trumper friends and family.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 12:49 PM

9. I like where we're at

The caveat is we must vote because Trump could overperform his 43% by a bit. I say this because, as I've posted before, MAGA-World has no like for any type of authority other than their own. They're actually anti-establishment, which is another side issue. But they view pollsters as part of the establishment, the Swamp. I don't think they're shy or ashamed, I just think they like to lie to pollsters. Do they vote in numbers? Do they have new registrants? Yes and yes. But some have flipped. Our massive turnout plus flippers should exceed MAGAt holdovers plus new MAGAts.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 01:44 PM

11. Remember 2018. GOTV

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 01:46 PM

12. This would be Clinton Dole at this point if they didn't

 

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:05 PM

14. Well Said, Sir

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:06 PM

15. Don't underestimate these cheaters and treasonous bastards....

 

They are already posting up phony ballot boxes for collections....and getting away with it. They are making plans to subvert the USPS and mail in ballots. I'm pretty certain Russia (and the GOPutinista party) are making plans to sabotage the voting machines and data that is being pulled from them.

Don't underestimate these criminal, anti-democratic fascists. They will stop at nothing...and their gun thug "militias" have already shown their colors for dealing with adversaries. Meanwhile, we waste time talking about what will happen if the fat fascist asshole refuses to leave the White House IF he is defeated. We may never know he gets defeated. We have been cheated once too often...and now we are waiting for the results of the most consequential election in our history. Do we move forward with a democratic government, or switch completely to a fascist dictatorship. THAT is what is on the ballot. Fuck these "undecided idiots". If they haven't made up their minds yet.....they are beyond hope. Fuck them all!

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Response to Hulk (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:11 PM

17. See post #13 n/t

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:08 PM

16. It's simple, the media making that claim to keep viewers tuning in, a tool of the trade if you will?

Pretty obvious pattern?

Necessary evil of the format?


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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 05:46 PM

21. I'm a SECRET BIDEN VOTER....

I guess I'm not really good at hiding things I suppose....

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 05:47 PM

22. Of course, the media, regardless of which network

have a lot to gain ratings-wise by making everyone believe the race is very close if not a dead heat right near the end. They do this every election. Try this: keep score on how many times you hear the term dead heat the closer we get to the election.

For sure, they are having a much tougher time doing this, but they will try nonetheless.

One thing is for sure, if the election is fair and doesn't involve the SCOTUS and Trump wins big, it may be the end of the polling business.

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Response to Mr.Bill (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 06:50 PM

26. Exactly

Also, on election night, none of the networks will declare a president any earlier than 11 p.m. Eastern.....they want to keep viewers watching throughout the prime time hours.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 05:54 PM

23. Demoralized Trump supporters...

I like that. Hopefully, and likely too demoralized to vote. Either they won't show to vote or they do but decide not to vote for either so they can in their mind say they didn't vote for Trump without voting for Biden.

The media likes to just highlight a few points without applying it to the other side. When that happens they need to be called out.

Some of those hidden Trump voters are now deceased since the 2016 election. And yes there are some that voted Democratic in 2016. But based on stats it likely split 60/40.

Some of those hidden Trump 2016 voters have either decided not to vote or to vote for Biden.

To help demoralize Trump supporters give them a bit of math. For every person that did not vote in 2016 and votes for Biden in 2020 that is a plus one vote. For every person that voted in 2016 for Trump and switches to Biden in 2020 that is plus two votes for Biden.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 06:04 PM

24. Great post...well done

 

Nearly every time since November 9, 2016 that actual Americans have had an opportunity to rebuke Trump and Trumpism, they have, in larger numbers. Trumpies won a few special elections in heavily Trump districts, but also lost some in heavily Trump districts. That's it. As you say, whenever people have voted since November 3, 2016 and Trumpism has been on the ballot, Trumpism mostly lost. People don't like Trump. It's that simple.

Biden has also played much of this very smartly. He's essentially flipped Trump's rallies on him, making them look like the irresponsible nonsense and fanatical cult event that they are. The question before Americans everywhere is whether they identify with frothing Red Hats and lunatic gunners. The answer is no.

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #24)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 01:31 PM

41. Good post yourself and the point made in 1st paragraph.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 06:36 PM

25. I am sick and tired of hearing about these poor trump voters. Enough. All I care about is my

vote for Joe Biden, that's it. Nothing else matters to me. So shut up enough about these poor trump voters and their suffering etc. Such whiners. We've had enough of these idiots for the last four years, I don't think Mr. Biden's voters need anymore encouragement to get out and vote...trump alone will do it, by driving us nuts w/ his constant moaning, ranting and raving. I never heard the likes of anyone moaning so much about this and about that constantly.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 08:50 PM

27. less likely so

They were never really hidden, just underestimated. Poll model electorates now consider non-college white males differently and were quite on target in 2018. What the model electorate may in fact be missing this time is an apparently much higher than usual 18-29 vote. The 18-29 set has been counted on by both Howard Dean in 2004 and Bernie Sanders in 2020 and other losing politicians over the years. Barack Obama turned them out in 2008 and won big. He did less well with them in 2012 and won smaller. Hillary did even worse. Bernie counted on turning them out this year and we know how that ended up.

A huge effort funded by a lot of outside funds has gone into turning them out this year. The Trump failure on covid has had an unusually direct impact on the daily lives of 18-29 year olds. They have lost jobs heavily and most social venues are closed as well as many college campuses. These folks are connecting to the fact that elections really do matter in their day to day personal lives.

There would be no solid reason for polling firms to adjust the model electorate. The "youth vote" has been promised for years and other than 2008 has never really shown up. However if it does what it appears to be doing, it will break the models outside the margin. In short, things may not be as close as they appear, by as much as 3 or 4 percent.

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #27)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 08:06 AM

37. THIS Thanks. n/t

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Response to quaker bill (Reply #27)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 06:00 AM

53. Agree, was listening to a Carville podcast, and he said

he thinks there could be a 'hidden Biden vote', as the pollsters tend to overcompensate the other way when they get it wrong, ie they underestimated Trump support last time now could be overestimating it.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 09:13 PM

28. Judges are the hidden voters.

 

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Response to NorthOf270 (Reply #28)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 02:32 AM

33. Yes. It's going to be an ugly November and December while the GOP (after having lost big)

will dissect every county judge by judge.

This has been in the works for some time—apparent by McConnell's obsession with appointing judges; and by Trump's complaining of mail in voter fraud.

I have no doubt the GOP and Putin have sent out thousands of ballots with bad signatures—or of dead people—and cast them for Biden. So they can try to nullify the election.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 10:51 PM

29. back in Louisiana

There was a saying, " he was so popular, people rose from the grave to vote for him." Not doubt that will happen for Donnie, too.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 11:21 PM

30. There are no hidden voters. Either you love him or hate him. There's no in between.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sat Oct 24, 2020, 11:22 PM

31. This whole "hidden trump voters" meme gives plausible deniability to Putin's

 

changing of electronic vote tallies...

Even though the polls say Biden is way ahead, when Putin changes the totals the media can just say, "See? Hidden trump voters".

It would start with RT, Newsmax, OANN, Breitbart, then followed by FOX. EVERYONE HATES NOT BEING ON THE BAND WAGON after the tipping point is reached...

Legit media will, hopefully, resist the urge to jump on board.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 02:28 AM

32. They're saying that so Putin has more wiggle room for screwing with the votes.

I don't know which media is saying that, but I can't help be paranoid about the Putin-effect.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 05:35 AM

34. My gut tells me there are a lot more hidden ANTI-TRUMP voters . . .

as is being shown by the humongous early voting, and as will be conclusively proven November 3 . . .

bye bye, Donald . . . don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out . . .

on second thought, I hope it hits you hard enough to knock some sense into you . . . fat chance, though . . .

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Response to OneBlueSky (Reply #34)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 01:47 PM

43. My gut agree w/ you totally. There are far more disgruntled trump voters this time around, and

there are far more democratic voters who are utterly bound and determined to get their votes in, regardless of the challenges in this Covid 19 environment throws at us.

Be safe. Vote smart.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:30 AM

35. Gotta keep the horse race narrative alive

To keep eyes on the TV 📺 screen while they fill airtime between ads for drugs we never knew we needed.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #35)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 06:54 AM

36. FYI

 

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 11:51 AM

39. No, don't stop worrying about hidden Trumpists, GOP vote fraud and suppression, right wing

media disinformation and lies, et, etc. Just get out and vote, and encourage all your friends and family to do so.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 01:26 PM

40. He sure hasn't won over any voters.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)


Response to Name removed (Reply #42)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 02:06 PM

44. I am so sorry!

That sounds so difficult. Are these relatives, friends or both?

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Response to Name removed (Reply #42)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 02:17 PM

45. Same here in NC.

I'm surrounded by orange voters everywhere. Neighbors and co-workers. Trying to give me bumper stickers and yard signs and I tell them I don't like things on my car or in my yard. Glad when this election is finally over.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 03:50 PM

46. I think the media may be unknowingly passing a Russian disinformation effort to suppress the vote.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 07:39 PM

47. THERE IS NO SILENT MAJORITY

There is only a noisy minority, pretending to be the majority. We are about to witness a landslide, a tsunami, of epic proportions.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 08:11 PM

48. They are hidden all right.

Under six feet of earth. Dead by Covid-19, due to lack of presidential leadership.

Hoist with his own petard. "Rightly" so.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 10:07 PM

50. Are this hidden voters possibly hiding in mama's basement?...

 

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2020, 06:27 AM

54. For the sake of the down-ballot, let them be demoralized and stay home.

We must win everything from dog catcher to senator.

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