General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe media keeps suggesting there may be hidden Trump voters...
Last edited Sat Oct 24, 2020, 02:09 PM - Edit history (1)
They are hidden all right: in fact they are so hard to see because they are being blocked out by millions of disgruntled former Trump supporters and newly engaged Democratic voters.
Of course there are some "hidden" or "secret" or "shy" Trump voters. With some 160 million or so voters out there, there are some of everything. You know what else there are? There are "hidden" or "secret" or "shy" Biden voters too. Those include voters too embarrassed to admit out loud that they could have been so wrong about Trump. Those include life long "Red Dog" Republicans who have a hard time admitting that, for the first time in their life, they will vote for a Democrat' and not just any Democrat, but Barack Obama's VP who has chosen a Black woman to be his own VP. Those voters also include some Republican women married to blow hard Trump supporters who just don't want to rock the boat at home.
But focusing on hidden voters misses the forest for the trees. The American electorate changed dramatically the day after Election Day of 2016, and all evidence supports a conclusion that nothing will change it back while Donald J. Trump remains in office. We have held annual elections since then in 2017, 2018, and 2019, along with numerous special elections throughout those years, and in almost every case Democrats have outperformed. Forget worrying about "hidden voters", and look at the masses assembling in plain sight eager to remove Trump from the presidency. Look at grassroots fundraising, look at early and mail voting, look at all the voices screaming at the top of their lungs that this is the most important election of our lives and everyone has to vote!
Democrats and others who lean to the left are not going to sit out this election. Complacency might have been an issue in prior election cycles prior, but not in this one. Our side is turning out, and we are being joined by increasing numbers of Republicans and right leaning Independents who still actually believe in decency, and the integrity of both our Republic and our international alliances.
There are just two real arguments given for why Biden supporters should not express confidence in his victory. Actually there is only one, the other argument is only relevant for pollsters and pundits. Those political pros are worried about damaging their credibility if they somehow get it wrong and openly suggest that Trump is going down hard but then get it wrong, after Trump already defied the odds once in 2016. Their reputation potentially getting besmirched might be something for them to lose some sleep over since their living depends on it, but worrying about bragging rights doesn't make the list of actual voter concerns: Our lives may well be riding on the outcome of this election.
The other reason given to reign in the specter of "over confidence" is that "over confidence" leads to slackening off, pf not following through, of failing to do all that we can and must do to defeat Donald Trump. May I suggest that there is a core difference between the concept of "confidence" and that of "over confidence?" No one, by literal definition, defends "over confidence" or says that it is a good thing. Over confidence does not exist on the Democratic side of the spectrum this year, because we are not even confident that we can reverse most of the damage to our country that Trump has already done even if Joe Biden is elected President. We are scared for the future of our Democracy. Just evicting Trump from the White House isn't enough. We need a resounding victory to roll back Trumpism with or without Trump in office. We need solid control of the U.S. Senate, we need control of State Legislatures. And we need margins of victory substantial enough that it becomes near impossible for Republicans to steal this election.
And to achieve that we need confidence that all of our efforts can be rewarded. Virtually any scenario conceivable for Trump to steal this election starts out with a premise that the polls must have all been wrong, that "hidden Trump voters" somehow propelled him into an upset victory. Fuck that. We are laying the groundwork for a contested election if we buy into the plausibility of that scenario. We are handing them their weapon of choice on a silver plate by conjuring up the menace of "hidden Trump voters" now. They are like left over ghosts from Halloween, you can't see them but they must be there. Meanwhile we have hoards of defecting Seniors and principled Republicans deserting Trump, and legions of women, highly energized African Americans, and passionately engaged youth coming out for Biden/Harris.
If Trump supporters become demoralized less of them will come out to vote. If they think that Trump still has a chance more of them will come out to vote. I say let's go all in with confidence of victory, and celebrate the likelihood of election results that will go down in history by making additional donations to Democrats, additional phone calls for Democrats, additional outreach to our friends and neighbors for Democrats. Let's pile on with enthusiasm. We have work to do, both before and after Election Day.
dalton99a
(81,485 posts)Oscarthegreat
(121 posts)There are probably a few million Trump voters who are embarrassed to admit they would still vote for Trump, but since no one knows how many of them there are, there's no use in speculating about them. As far as the "undecided":Anyone who is still undecided 10 days before the elections after 4 years of Trump is either going to vote for him or not vote at all, so I would count on even one undecided vote going to Biden under any circumstances.
The only thing we should do is vote, and vote smart. Don't wait till the last minute, don't count on the US Postal Service to deliver your ballot if you vote by mail, locate an official drop off box and deliver it personally, and if you reside in a heavily red area, count on being harassed by Trump goons and find a solution if you insist on voting in person.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,412 posts)Like his policies, embarrassed by his behavior and antics. I don't think that there are actually a lot of true "undecided voters" out there because I'm just not sure what they're undecided about. If this were an election between, say, George H.W. Bush and Joe Biden, then, yeah, sure, I can probably see where there might be some indecision. Or Bob Dole and Joe Biden. But between Donald Trump (+4 years of history) and Joe Biden really should not be hard to decide unless you voted for Trump in 2016 and are stuck trying to figure out if you're going to vote for him again or how you might rationalize such a decision.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)and are uncomfortable admitting that they may support him again after all that he has done. But even if he wins back all of those wavering prior supporters he's not adding anything to his coalition. And of course he won't be winning back ALL of them, if he's lucky, when push comes to shove, he will hold onto most of them. That's still a shrinking pie, while Biden is growing his potential base with approval ratings that are literally rising as this race proceeds.
And sure, Trump will bag some rural white voters who sat out 2016. Biden will win far more Democratic coalition voters who sat out 2016 than Trump can even dream of.
The Mouth
(3,150 posts)I think anyone who put a Trump sign in their yard or on their car would become a social outcast in a second. It won't matter here, since Biden will carry CA, but I'd bet money that there is not a single poll capturing quite the number of votes Trump will get.
He speaks to much more of the population than many of us really want to admit, and that hasn't changed from 2016.
Iggo
(47,552 posts)That's the current definition of "undecided."
radius777
(3,635 posts)There are always undecideds and this election has less than 2016, which is what allowed it to shift around so much as news broke.
This time the race is far more steady, and the undecideds likely will break 2:1 in favor of Biden.
Thekaspervote
(32,765 posts)With the polls being what they are, there are are very few undecided voters..maybe 3-5%.
Dotard would have to have every one of the undecideds vote for him...and flip 2-4% of Biden voters just to come close to even with Biden
They look so ridiculous when they spin that kind of crap!!
exboyfil
(17,863 posts)If we get the House, Senate, and Presidency; we must do something about that. Some sort of universal voting rights act that standardizes the methods of voting with absolutely secure audit track back (ie paper ballots locked up).
DENVERPOPS
(8,820 posts)Who knows how many Russian Votes for Republicans are floating around out in Cyberspace, just waiting to be released the day of the election !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
One of Hitler's minions said: "We don't need to control the votes, just the people that count them......" That was the exact thing that happened in 2000 and 2004.
I believe that what happened in the Obama elections was that they rigged the votes to win by a reasonable percentage and the voting for Obama was such a landslide that took them by surprise......
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)...rather than playing along with the possible existence of a hypothetical massive one sided "hidden vote" for Trump that would be used to "explain" how all of the polls were wrong. NOW is the time to trumpet Trump's pending loss rather than accept unchallenged purely speculative explanations for how he can still win.
olegramps
(8,200 posts)Talitha
(6,586 posts)Russian vote-flipping is my deepest fear.
We must make it a landslide for Joe.
Bury the damned Repugs.
No. More. Bullshit.
DENVERPOPS
(8,820 posts)worked well for them in 2004 especially.................
Cheezoholic
(2,020 posts)under 6 feet of dirt unfortunately. Lock him up
not_the_one
(2,227 posts)There are also hidden Biden voters.
Granny M
(1,395 posts)There are a lot of them who are voting for Biden but don't want the arguments with Trumper friends and family.
bucolic_frolic
(43,158 posts)The caveat is we must vote because Trump could overperform his 43% by a bit. I say this because, as I've posted before, MAGA-World has no like for any type of authority other than their own. They're actually anti-establishment, which is another side issue. But they view pollsters as part of the establishment, the Swamp. I don't think they're shy or ashamed, I just think they like to lie to pollsters. Do they vote in numbers? Do they have new registrants? Yes and yes. But some have flipped. Our massive turnout plus flippers should exceed MAGAt holdovers plus new MAGAts.
Cetacea
(7,367 posts)greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)Hulk
(6,699 posts)They are already posting up phony ballot boxes for collections....and getting away with it. They are making plans to subvert the USPS and mail in ballots. I'm pretty certain Russia (and the GOPutinista party) are making plans to sabotage the voting machines and data that is being pulled from them.
Don't underestimate these criminal, anti-democratic fascists. They will stop at nothing...and their gun thug "militias" have already shown their colors for dealing with adversaries. Meanwhile, we waste time talking about what will happen if the fat fascist asshole refuses to leave the White House IF he is defeated. We may never know he gets defeated. We have been cheated once too often...and now we are waiting for the results of the most consequential election in our history. Do we move forward with a democratic government, or switch completely to a fascist dictatorship. THAT is what is on the ballot. Fuck these "undecided idiots". If they haven't made up their minds yet.....they are beyond hope. Fuck them all!
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)Pretty obvious pattern?
Necessary evil of the format?
AZ8theist
(5,461 posts)I guess I'm not really good at hiding things I suppose....
Mr.Bill
(24,284 posts)have a lot to gain ratings-wise by making everyone believe the race is very close if not a dead heat right near the end. They do this every election. Try this: keep score on how many times you hear the term dead heat the closer we get to the election.
For sure, they are having a much tougher time doing this, but they will try nonetheless.
One thing is for sure, if the election is fair and doesn't involve the SCOTUS and Trump wins big, it may be the end of the polling business.
Windy City Charlie
(1,178 posts)Also, on election night, none of the networks will declare a president any earlier than 11 p.m. Eastern.....they want to keep viewers watching throughout the prime time hours.
LiberalFighter
(50,915 posts)I like that. Hopefully, and likely too demoralized to vote. Either they won't show to vote or they do but decide not to vote for either so they can in their mind say they didn't vote for Trump without voting for Biden.
The media likes to just highlight a few points without applying it to the other side. When that happens they need to be called out.
Some of those hidden Trump voters are now deceased since the 2016 election. And yes there are some that voted Democratic in 2016. But based on stats it likely split 60/40.
Some of those hidden Trump 2016 voters have either decided not to vote or to vote for Biden.
To help demoralize Trump supporters give them a bit of math. For every person that did not vote in 2016 and votes for Biden in 2020 that is a plus one vote. For every person that voted in 2016 for Trump and switches to Biden in 2020 that is plus two votes for Biden.
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)Nearly every time since November 9, 2016 that actual Americans have had an opportunity to rebuke Trump and Trumpism, they have, in larger numbers. Trumpies won a few special elections in heavily Trump districts, but also lost some in heavily Trump districts. That's it. As you say, whenever people have voted since November 3, 2016 and Trumpism has been on the ballot, Trumpism mostly lost. People don't like Trump. It's that simple.
Biden has also played much of this very smartly. He's essentially flipped Trump's rallies on him, making them look like the irresponsible nonsense and fanatical cult event that they are. The question before Americans everywhere is whether they identify with frothing Red Hats and lunatic gunners. The answer is no.
yonder
(9,664 posts)SWBTATTReg
(22,118 posts)vote for Joe Biden, that's it. Nothing else matters to me. So shut up enough about these poor trump voters and their suffering etc. Such whiners. We've had enough of these idiots for the last four years, I don't think Mr. Biden's voters need anymore encouragement to get out and vote...trump alone will do it, by driving us nuts w/ his constant moaning, ranting and raving. I never heard the likes of anyone moaning so much about this and about that constantly.
quaker bill
(8,224 posts)They were never really hidden, just underestimated. Poll model electorates now consider non-college white males differently and were quite on target in 2018. What the model electorate may in fact be missing this time is an apparently much higher than usual 18-29 vote. The 18-29 set has been counted on by both Howard Dean in 2004 and Bernie Sanders in 2020 and other losing politicians over the years. Barack Obama turned them out in 2008 and won big. He did less well with them in 2012 and won smaller. Hillary did even worse. Bernie counted on turning them out this year and we know how that ended up.
A huge effort funded by a lot of outside funds has gone into turning them out this year. The Trump failure on covid has had an unusually direct impact on the daily lives of 18-29 year olds. They have lost jobs heavily and most social venues are closed as well as many college campuses. These folks are connecting to the fact that elections really do matter in their day to day personal lives.
There would be no solid reason for polling firms to adjust the model electorate. The "youth vote" has been promised for years and other than 2008 has never really shown up. However if it does what it appears to be doing, it will break the models outside the margin. In short, things may not be as close as they appear, by as much as 3 or 4 percent.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)radius777
(3,635 posts)he thinks there could be a 'hidden Biden vote', as the pollsters tend to overcompensate the other way when they get it wrong, ie they underestimated Trump support last time now could be overestimating it.
NorthOf270
(290 posts)C Moon
(12,213 posts)will dissect every county judge by judge.
This has been in the works for some timeapparent by McConnell's obsession with appointing judges; and by Trump's complaining of mail in voter fraud.
I have no doubt the GOP and Putin have sent out thousands of ballots with bad signaturesor of dead peopleand cast them for Biden. So they can try to nullify the election.
azureblue
(2,146 posts)There was a saying, " he was so popular, people rose from the grave to vote for him." Not doubt that will happen for Donnie, too.
Initech
(100,070 posts)not_the_one
(2,227 posts)changing of electronic vote tallies...
Even though the polls say Biden is way ahead, when Putin changes the totals the media can just say, "See? Hidden trump voters".
It would start with RT, Newsmax, OANN, Breitbart, then followed by FOX. EVERYONE HATES NOT BEING ON THE BAND WAGON after the tipping point is reached...
Legit media will, hopefully, resist the urge to jump on board.
C Moon
(12,213 posts)I don't know which media is saying that, but I can't help be paranoid about the Putin-effect.
OneBlueSky
(18,536 posts)as is being shown by the humongous early voting, and as will be conclusively proven November 3 . . .
bye bye, Donald . . . don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out . . .
on second thought, I hope it hits you hard enough to knock some sense into you . . . fat chance, though . . .
SWBTATTReg
(22,118 posts)there are far more democratic voters who are utterly bound and determined to get their votes in, regardless of the challenges in this Covid 19 environment throws at us.
Be safe. Vote smart.
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)To keep eyes on the TV 📺 screen while they fill airtime between ads for drugs we never knew we needed.
Trumpocalypse
(6,143 posts)Nitram
(22,800 posts)media disinformation and lies, et, etc. Just get out and vote, and encourage all your friends and family to do so.
nature-lover
(1,469 posts)Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
ismnotwasm
(41,978 posts)That sounds so difficult. Are these relatives, friends or both?
zackymilly
(2,375 posts)I'm surrounded by orange voters everywhere. Neighbors and co-workers. Trying to give me bumper stickers and yard signs and I tell them I don't like things on my car or in my yard. Glad when this election is finally over.
marble falls
(57,081 posts)GETPLANING
(846 posts)There is only a noisy minority, pretending to be the majority. We are about to witness a landslide, a tsunami, of epic proportions.
warmfeet
(3,321 posts)Under six feet of earth. Dead by Covid-19, due to lack of presidential leadership.
Hoist with his own petard. "Rightly" so.
Illumination
(2,458 posts)Earthshine2
(4,005 posts)We must win everything from dog catcher to senator.