FYI- Poll Trolls Will Not Like

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[VMA131Marine]

1. Trump is going to need a poll to point to that shows him winning

if he’s going to claim the vote was fraudulent.

[Maru Kitteh]

2. I'll go one better - I think it's more than 1.5% gained

I’m so glad I took election and the day after off!

[panader0]

3. No one will be able to work anyway.

Everyone will be glued to the news.

[honest.abe]

4. I predict Trafalgar will come out with new polls within the next few days with Trump leading..

in all the key swing states.

[kurtcagle]

5. It's funny watching 538 Today

This morning President race was at Biden 88, Trump 12, and in the six hours it's gone

Biden 86 Trump 14,
Biden 87 Trump 13,
Biden 87 Trump 12,
Biden 87 Trump 13, and, as of 3 minutes ago:
Biden 87 Trump 12.

The takeaway from this is simple: what you're seeing at this point is statistical noise. There's about one chance in seven at this point that Trump can eke out a win based upon 538's model, which I believe to be accurate or perhaps slightly conservative in its estimates. The big wildcard, which they readily admit to, is the impact that early voting plays on this, because there's not a lot of data points to incorporate it into the model without losing resolution.

The other factor that comes into play is that as more vote early, the smaller the available pool becomes for dramatic swings, and the greater the likelihood that ostensibly undecided voters will simply sit on their hands and not vote. In many respects, this helps Biden, because that pool will likely break for Trump. I think that Biden might break 90% likelihood, but won't go much higher than that, even if Trump and Pence both quit before election day.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Nate just mentioned stolen election

He seldom if ever brings up something like that. But in a recent tweet he said it's getting to the point there are very fews ways Trump can win, other than if the election is stolen