Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Now-cast, 9/29: 339.4 to 198.6, Obama with 98% chance of winning

[highplainsdem]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/


His Nov. 6 forecast, as of tonight: 319.3 electoral votes for President Obama, 218.7 for Romney

Obama with an 83.8% chance of winning.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Assuming this is the case on Nov 6

This is landslide territory.

[hrmjustin]

2. that means that obama would win 5-7 million votes and would win all states he won except IN

[clydefrand]

3. Oh, I hope this works for us

What will happen to us if Mitt wins? That man is crazy as hell. Crazier? Yep.

[calimary]

4. DO NOT get complacent!!! We don't have this thing won yet.

[proud2BlibKansan]

5. People aren't going to show up to vote if they think it's going to be a landslide.

I'm becoming very concerned.

[CobaltBlue]

6. North Carolina. Again.

I believe President Obama will again carry North Carolina.

Indiana and Nebraska #02 need more polling, and I wonder what the internals are in the Obama Camp on the Hoosier State. (He flipped it in 2008 by a margin just over a full percentage point. Neb. #02 was a similar margin.)

I look to Arizona and Missouri as opportunities for pickups. Georgia and Montana haven't had much attention and, despite carriage in 2008 by John McCain, performed favorable for President Obama.

But in all frankness: Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan is such a lousy campaign, I'd love to see poll numbers move dramatically for Obama, so we could see him winning nationally around 15 points. (He beat McCain by over 7.) That would bring in even more states.

[highplainsdem]

7. kick

[SIDURI]

8. NEVER FORGET ....

Sorry for shouting.

It's in my sig line:

The GOP knows it cannot win without cheating. Since the Supreme Court gave its blessing in 2000, cheating has become explicit GOP policy. That's why we now have electronic voting machines and voter ID laws. FIGHT BACK.~Siduri~

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. K&R