A view of the Iowa Poll from an Iowan.

[SharonClark]

Although it would break my heart if everything in that poll (except Axne) came true, Iowa is only 6 Electoral Votes and Biden doesn’t need Iowa to win.

I hope Ann Seltzer spends a lot of time on Wednesday explaining why her poll was wrong.

[Demsrule86]

1. Good point thanks.

K&R

[LizBeth]

2. Right. I won't be disheartened if we do not get Texas either but sure would be fun.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Thx, would sure like to know how correct they have been

They did not correctly call the last 2 dem primaries

[Sogo]

4. What's wrong with Axne?

We need to remain blue!

And that poll is within the margin of error, meaning it's a statistical tie.

[madaboutharry]

7. Axne is ahead, I think that's what was meant.

Nate Silver of 538 seems to think the poll is wrong.

[Sogo]

10. Thanks.

I haven't seen the details of the poll yet.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I don't think people are concerned about Biden losing Iowa.

Most everyone entertained the likelihood of him losing Iowa this year, even after it tightened.

I think people are worried that this surge is reminiscent of a similar surge from four years ago that swung Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to Trump. The thought process is that it was picking up, at the state level, the overwhelming support Trump was seeing in white, high school educated voters. So, extrapolating that out, a seven-point lead in Iowa may mean a much narrower race in Wisconsin than what the polls are suggesting.

It's hard to reconcile that Trump is on the cusp of winning Iowa by +7 and Biden is on the cusp of winning Wisconsin by maybe an equally large number when the states have voted together in every election since 1944 minus one - 2004, when Kerry lost Iowa by 10,000 votes and won Wisconsin by about 10,000 votes.

[shrike3]

8. But it seems all the rules have been thrown out the window

this year.

I just found out that in Vigo County, Indiana (I live in Indiana, I know that area) Biden and Trump are tied. That can't be right. Can't be. We're talking "hell is real" (signs along the highway that say that) territory. They can't be tied.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Absolutely. But we're humans are creatures of habit.

And that means we often build our assumptions off what we know based on the past since, really, the future is uncertain.

Rightfully or not, the only thing we have to compare this election to is through the lens of 2016 and that's because one candidate is Trump - just like 2012 was compared to 2008. We know what voters Trump will bring to the polls. We can only speculate on what voters Biden will bring to the polls because this is, like Hillary four years ago, Biden's first real solo national campaign (as in, he's not the second man on the ticket). So, because of that, little things like this will be amplified as we focus on the trends to get a sense of how this election will break. Moreover, there is a bit of PTSD with how 2016 went - the fact Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania shifted so quickly and the polls failed to pick that shift up.

As for Vigo County, I think that county has voted for the election winner in like every election since the 1950s - and all but two since the 1800s - including Obama's two wins. So, if Biden is really poised to win, it's not a surprise he's tied in that county.

[shrike3]

16. Well, given I live in Indiana it's a surprise to me.

That's all I'll say.

[zebrapa]

15. Vigo County ...

trump won that county 54% to Hillary's 40%. That a poll indicates a tie is excellent news.

[shrike3]

17. I agree. I'm still in shock that any "hell is real" people would even vote for

Biden. By "hell is real" people, I'm talking about the signs along I-65 in that part of the state. "Hell is real," "repent."

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Obama won the county in 2012.

He carried it both elections. So, it's definitely winnable.

[shrike3]

24. Obama carried the state in 2008.

Damndest thing I ever saw. Told my husband, "Hear that sound? It's the sound of rednecks' heads exploding all over the state."

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Yes but also lost the state by 11 points in 2012.

[shrike3]

29. That's the Indiana I know and love.

Winning in 2008 was lightning striking. 2012 was return to normal.

[marylandblue]

14. I think the thought process is, "Damn Seltzer triggered my PTSD!"

[SharonClark]

19. I don't think Iowa is that similar to more populated

and diverse states like PA and WI. We’re physically between MN and MO and heavy with agriculture, evangelicals, clear channel right wing talk radio, and FoxNews.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. IA and WI are two states that overwhelmingly vote together...

It's very rare they don't. In fact, going back to 1944, they've only voted differently once: 2004 when Bush won Iowa by 10,000 votes and Kerry won Wisconsin by roughly 10,000 votes.

That could be changing, but it does give me pause.

[econron]

31. And a bunch of socialist farmers

I'm so sick and tired of this state and all the handouts... farmers, amazon, and every company willing to add "jobs". Thank goodness Ethanol is going to save the economy.... sarcasm

[still_one]

20. Joe is spending these final days in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Not even comparable

to 2016

At best Iowa was always a toss up state, but with the media pushing this poll, it is psychologically unnerving because of what we have been through the last four years

As long as we vote we will win

There are more Democrats than republicans, more Women than men, add to that the Latino, African American vote, and those republicans who have come out against trump

As long as we vote, our diversity will win the day

[Drunken Irishman]

25. I know Biden camping out in these states should make me feel better, but it's the opposite.

It tells me they're not convinced these states are locked down, despite the polls indicating a healthy-ish lead in all of 'em. He certainly has a better polling advantage in Michigan than he does in Georgia and North Carolina and Florida, yet he won't be to any of those states.

As for Hillary and 2016, something similar actually happened to her. In all of October, Hillary had three rallies total in Pennsylvania (2) and Michigan (1). In the final four days of the campaign, she actually held NINE rallies in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. She changed course at the last moment and I know it led people to wonder if her internals were showing those states as closer than what the actual polls were showing.

Turns out...

[still_one]

30. The biggest difference, no Comey

[Tribetime]

6. 😁 I agree!

[spooky3]

9. I think the main concern is for Greenfield

Although Biden doesn’t need Iowa to win (though we’d all love to win it) Dems are hoping to pick up that Senate seat.

[zebrapa]

12. Greenfield

We absolutely need to pick up that senate seat.

[still_one]

22. Yes, but also have great possibilities in Arizona, Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia,

and even Mississippi

[zebrapa]

32. WE NEED IOWA

We need to turn five senate seats to control that body (we're almost for sure going to lose our seat in Alabama).

IMHO Arizona and Colorado are "for sure". Maine and NC are "almost for sure". Georgia is a possible but if Ossoff "wins" with less than 50% of the vote, they'll have a runoff election.

Mississippi and Texas - not going to happen for us.

WE NEED IOWA.

[David__77]

11. There could be nothing wrong with the poll, and it could be really wrong.

There's chance in involved when sampling, even with the "best sampling approach," whatever that might be.

the poll you're referencing reported error +/-3.4%. If this is a 95% confidence interval, it's equivalent to saying the following:

We're 95% sure that the true results is somewhere between these two results -
Biden 37.6%, Trump 51.4%
Biden 44.4%, Trump 44.6%

There's a 5% chance that the true result lies somewhere outside the interval between those results.

I like the approach of looking at many polls to see trends: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

[still_one]

26. Add to that the don't want to tell, and undecideds still makes this a toss up

[grantcart]

18. Seltzer doesn't need to explain anything. Good pollsters have outliers

Mediocre pollsters trash outliers so nothing falls outside the "safety zone".

You want a pollster who reports all their findings not just the ones that appear correct.

[PTWB]

28. The concern isn't about IA directly but if it indicates a trend that will pervert the Midwest.