Any probabilities on popular vote?

[Tommy_Carcetti]

It has to be at least 98%, right?

There are four Super States.

Two of them, California and New York, are locks for Biden, almost certainly by double digits, maybe even 20% plus margins.

The two others, Florida and Texas, are tight races. That’s to be expected of Florida, but previously safe red Texas has has surprised everybody.

Even if Trump takes both those states, it won’t be by much.

What’s the largest safe red state for Trump? Ohio and Georgia are both either toss-ups or trending blue and are hardly a lock for him, either.

[TwilightZone]

1. 538 has it at 97%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

About halfway down.

[MiniMe]

2. For whatever reason, it seems like the horrible choice gets at least 27%

My guess would be his percentage will be at least in the 30's. Even when he strands his supporters in the freezing cold, they still support him. I don't get it. My cousin supports him, I don't get it. I ask her if she know that she will lose any and all insurance she has she will lose, and I tell her she has a pre-existing condition. Ugh.