24 hours from now...
We'll be entering a period where we may get a good sense of where this election is heading. True, some of it might be delayed way more than in the past due to the slower mail-in results. But even counting for that, I have a good feeling that, around the 8:00-10:00 Eastern Time hour(s) will give us a hint of who's likely to win.
This was the period, four years ago, that it became really apparent Trump was performing better than expected and Hillary much worse. He took the lead around this time 24 hours ago in Florida and never lost it. North Carolina, which had shown an early lead for Hillary, was gone - and more uncomfortable was the fact she was either barely up, or trailing, in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. This was around the time I knew we were not in a good spot.
Conversely, four years prior, this is around the exact time I knew we were in a good spot. It was clear Obama was over-performing a lot of the polls, or at least matching what the polls were saying, as Michigan was called for Obama shortly after 9:00, and he was doing very well in Pennsylvania.
It was also the period of time I knew 2004 was not going to go as the pre-election exit polls were suggesting - as Kerry was struggling to put away Pennsylvania, running well behind in Ohio and Florida, and not dominating like it looked like he would in places like New Hampshire.
I don't know how the slow counting will change things tomorrow night, so, it's entirely possible this hour (or two) means little.
But I suspect it won't. I think we'll have a pretty good idea if Biden is going to take North Carolina and whether he has a real shot at Florida.
8:00 to 9:30 or 10:00.
Keep that in mind.
= new reply since forum marked as read
