Pinellas County FL seems to point to Biden winning Florida

[beachbumbob]

"Worth noting that Trump won the County by 1% in 2016, or a total margin of 5,500 votes across around half a million cast.

That 10% shift would at that level of turnout a gain of 50,000 votes for Biden, except we know the turnout will be up significantly.

For what it is worth, that should give folks some confidence about Florida."


We polled bellwether #Pinellas County, Florida one last time.

Trump won Pinellas +1% (5,419 votes) in 2016.

@StPetePolls
final numbers:

@JoeBiden
54%
@realDonaldTrump
45%

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1323618317882544131%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2020%2F11%2F3%2F1992179%2F-Pinellas-County-FL-seems-to-point-to-Biden-winning-Florida

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/3/1992179/-Pinellas-County-FL-seems-to-point-to-Biden-winning-Florida#comment_79160538

[sweetloukillbot]

1. Dave Wasserman has been watching Sumter (The Villages)

He's saying Trump needs 67% minimum, or he's in trouble in the state.

He just tweeted this:
Sumter Co., FL has cast 83,592 early votes (79% turnout, by far the highest in the state). Breakdown:

GOP: 49,094 (59%)
Dem: 19,799 (24%)
NPA/Other: 14,699 (17%)

Sumter's Election Day turnout as of 11am:

GOP: 2,676 (65%)
Dem: 633 (16%)
NPA/Other: 788 (19%)

Looks like he'll need 100% Republican votes and 1/2 of the Independents to meet that benchmark. I'm not sure that's gonna happen. We'll see what the indies do...

[mopinko]

2. shouldnt assume repubs are voting for him.

it will be interesting to see. but i'm guessing min 10% are voting biden. prolly more.

[sweetloukillbot]

3. No, I think this looks good

But I'm not a deep dive data expert...

[kitron]

4. Pinellas minute by minute

I have been tracking Pinellas all morning. Here is what I am seeing so far:
* collecting data from https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin (data is refreshed every 10 minutes)
* on a minute/minute basis Republican ballots are beating Dem ballots by a rate of 1.5-2 to 1. This has improved for Dem since early morning. It was even more tilted towards republicans early on 2.5-3 to 1
* Republicans are currently up by 970 and they made up more than 9000 ballot lead the Dem had


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H-z81jD8fWHqzZKYoKe9AmYG_sITugiZKEIZsZ__Fmg/edit?usp=sharing

[beachbumbob]

5. watching voter affiliation is a rough way as we know there will be significant crossover to Biden

and throw in the unaffiliated/first time voter data which will be heavy Biden

[DrToast]

6. It's all we have for right now

Last edited Tue Nov 3, 2020, 03:07 PM - Edit history (1)

At 8:00 PM EST, we will get some votes and have a much clearer picture of Florida.

[triron]

7. Fantastic!

[EarthFirst]

8. 73.3% turnout @ 1:30 pm... nt

[kitron]

9. 74.79% turnout

[triron]

10. In Pinellas or Florida?

[Sunsky]

13. This is the latest data from the links provided

Democrat 198,511(37.23%)
Republican 202,389(37.96%)
Pinellas county

ETA today's vote so far:
DEM 17,882 - 23.44%
REP 36,777 - 48.21%
NPA 20,047 - 26.28%
Other 1,573 - 2.06%

[Johnny2X2X]

11. Florida looking better and better!

Link to tweet

?s=20

[triron]

12. Not sure what this means. Nor do I think NPAs break evenly.

They will break for Biden.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. They early NPAs likely broke hugely for Biden

This writer is assuming they split 50-50 today. Trump needed 1/2 million or so more Republicans to vote today than Dems, he's not on track to come close to that.

[coti]

15. Yeah, people need to be clearer in their calculations, too many

indefinite nouns