General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWin PA, we win the POTUS, it's that simple, barring any major surprises (FL & NC were not surprises)
this map is the WORST I can see us doing if we win PAelleng
(131,292 posts)as they refuse to look at 'early' votes until tomorrow.
Some PA counties are trying to get early votes counted now. Philadelphia County, for example, started counting early votes as soon as the polls opened today, per PA law.
There is no refusal, the count is bound by current law to begin on and not before election day.
PA GOP opposed changes to law to allow early counting of mail votes. In one county, election authorities say they will not count mail votes received by 11/6, which may be legally counted per PA law, recently litigated, until the Supreme Court authorizes it, even though it may not even be addressed by that court.
BusyBeingBest
(8,059 posts)Celerity
(43,683 posts)In 2016, I missed 2 states
FL (had it Blue, learnt my lesson there)
and MN (had it Red, which it almost was by a few thousand votes)
I won my uni class pool (needless to say, unfortunately)
I drill down to district level and its showed (in 2016) a huge flow of working class whites breaking late for Rump, Comey and the huge Obamacare rate increases (long forgotten, seldom discussed but had a negative poll impact right before and during Comey) played a massive role, and also I saw depressed A-A turnout coming then in 4 cities, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, plus Chicago and Minneapolis, which did not matter)
this year, too many variables (COVID-19 nightmare, plus systemic election fraud attempts by the Rethugs on an Olympian level) to be as precise via a scientific analysis
This was my final 2020 map
onetexan
(13,078 posts)bamagal62
(3,274 posts)Saboburns
(2,807 posts)Biden up 2% with 80% in.
Celerity
(43,683 posts)Homoudont
(36 posts)Pa is the Key
sarisataka
(18,883 posts)263-275
Polybius
(15,518 posts)Right now that's not a given.
dem4decades
(11,317 posts)Celerity
(43,683 posts)misanthrope
(7,435 posts)is that far too many Americans are comfortable with bigotry and fascism.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,452 posts)Celerity
(43,683 posts)pure gut call
BUT
I did predict we win it
look at my wording
I said that the OP map is the WORST I can see us dong as long as we win PA
this was my actual final map predictions
only have missed NC so far (had it Red until this morning, went on a hunch, and the hunch was wrong)