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Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:24 PM

Here's why I feel confident about Pennsylvania

Just heard on CNN that there are 800,000 votes still left in PA, and Biden has to win about 60-62% of them in order to win the state. That sounds like a lot, but Biden is going to easily outpace that 60-62%.

It appears that Pennsylvania Democrats, more than any other swing state, took advantage of vote by mail. And ALL the ballots that are left are vote by mail. It happens that a huge chunk of them are in counties that should favor Biden, which is encouraging. But here's the thing: it doesn't matter what county in Pennsylvania the ballots come from--they're going to favor Biden heavily either way.

The New York Times has a list of counties with their vote totals and the estimated percentage of votes returned:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html

There is a consistent pattern in each and every single one of the counties where the vote is >98 in: Trump's margin did not increase in ANY of those counties by more than a couple of points. In Snyder County, for instance, he was +46.8 in 2016 and +47 this year. So he gained a very little. In a few of them he lost a bit. His biggest improvement was in Elk County, which went from +42.4 to +45. But that was only one of a handful of counties where he moved the needle on his margin more than two points. So it looks like, when it comes to improving his share of the vote in a given county, 3 points is probably his ceiling.

In most of those counties he improved his raw vote total, but Biden also improved over HRC's raw vote total. Look at Washington County, for instance, which is the largest county that Trump won. Trump got 61,386 in 2016 and increased that to 71,072 this year. But Biden also eclipsed HRC's 36,822 votes, winning 44,231. Biden came within a few points of matching or else exceeded Trump's increased turnout in every single county that has been completely counted.

Now look at the counties that still have votes outstanding. Some of them are huge Trump counties, like Cumberland, which Trump won by 17.8 points in 2016. Trump pulled 69k in 2016, but only 67k so far this year. So there are probably at least 2k votes for him in the uncounted mail-in ballots. But look at the democratic votes: HRC pulled 47k in 2016 and Biden only has 40k so far. So it seems likely that, even in this solidly Trump county, Biden is going to gain between 3k and 5k votes on Trump when the mail-in ballots are counted. In some of those counties, Trump is running 10, 15, even 20-25 points ahead of his 2016 margins. Which means they almost certainly have big margins of uncounted Biden votes remaining.

And those are the heavily Trump counties. When you figure that most of the remaining votes are in counties that Clinton won in 2016 (like Philadelphia, Allegheny, and Bucks most notably), things look even better. And so far, among all the counties that have counted all their votes, Biden has EXTENDED Clinton's margin in every county that she won in 2016. So the break there will be even bigger for Biden.

Biden is going to win Pennsylvania. Likely by a larger margin than the 44,000 trump won by in 2016. Maybe even by somewhere near or upwards of 100k.

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply Here's why I feel confident about Pennsylvania (Original post)
fishwax Nov 2020 OP
pbmus Nov 2020 #1
KPN Nov 2020 #2
NoMoreRepugs Nov 2020 #3
tclambert Nov 2020 #14
TheRealNorth Nov 2020 #4
Thekaspervote Nov 2020 #5
Cha Nov 2020 #11
Upthevibe Nov 2020 #6
Olafjoy Nov 2020 #7
TheRealNorth Nov 2020 #8
luvallpeeps Nov 2020 #9
Blue Owl Nov 2020 #10
ancianita Nov 2020 #12
cleolew Nov 2020 #13
fishwax Nov 2020 #15
BumRushDaShow Nov 2020 #16

Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:27 PM

1. From your keyboard to GODS ears, make it so...

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:29 PM

2. You may have an election analyst future ahead

of you.

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:29 PM

3. NYT website breaks down the mail-in voting in PA.

Of a million plus counted so far JB got 78% of them. They show 700,000 more to count. Do the math.

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Response to NoMoreRepugs (Reply #3)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 01:50 AM

14. 546,000

Trump would get the other 154,000. So Biden gets a 392,000 benefit. According to the AP, Trump leads at this moment by 164,000.

End result would be a Biden win by 228,000.

(Assuming I can still do arithmetic after midnight.)

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:30 PM

4. I hope you're right

But I am loathe to make assumptions about there being Biden margins in the absentee ballots outside of the Philly and Pittsburgh. I think if Biden gets 50% of those votes outside the urban areas, I think he does squeak by with a win. My understanding is that election officials in the Republican areas have been slow to report those, so I do hope the Biden campaign is keeping a close eye on all of this and not being over-focused on just the Democratic areas.

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:31 PM

5. yes..100k!!

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #5)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 12:00 AM

11. Oh god.. I hope they're correct, too.. TY Kasper.

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:32 PM

6. fishwax....Thank you...

This is exactly the kind of thing I'm trying to get a handle on. Thanks again....

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:33 PM

7. Kornacki said even in the red counties, Biden is getting more than trump in the mail-in.

I know he has been up for two days straight with a reported 20 minutes of sleep, but he said that maybe an hour ago. Iím sorry, I have been glued to the coverage

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Response to Olafjoy (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:35 PM

8. That is good to know

I haven't seen the data on that, but if that continues to hold true I know I can sleep a little easier that Biden may be able to pull out PA like he did WI.

I admittedly wasn't sure about WI when I went to sleep last night, despite the fact I am pretty familiar with the WI political landscape.
But we managed to eek out a victory there.

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:35 PM

9. Thank you

I've been feeling better, but my hands are shaking again.

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Wed Nov 4, 2020, 11:47 PM

10. K&R

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 01:46 AM

12. Wow. You and Cuomo think a lot alike about numbers. Thank you. Your analysis is heartening.

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 01:47 AM

13. Hopeful

Thanks for that. Need to hear positive news. I live in SF, thank goodness, but it tears at my heart to think about 4 more years of the madman.

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Response to fishwax (Original post)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:21 PM

15. Just heard about Cumberland County specifically from Kornacki in MSNBC

Now look at the counties that still have votes outstanding. Some of them are huge Trump counties, like Cumberland, which Trump won by 17.8 points in 2016. Trump pulled 69k in 2016, but only 67k so far this year. So there are probably at least 2k votes for him in the uncounted mail-in ballots. But look at the democratic votes: HRC pulled 47k in 2016 and Biden only has 40k so far. So it seems likely that, even in this solidly Trump county, Biden is going to gain between 3k and 5k votes on Trump when the mail-in ballots are counted.


The mail-in count from Cumberland just came in: Trump pulled 9k and Biden 21k. A huge gain in the mail-in ballots from a county that Trump carried by double digits.

Every group of votes that gets returned is going to help Biden. Even the ones from Trump Country. Joe's going to bring this thing home in his home state in Pennsylvania.

Maybe it will even be one of a couple of counties near his hometown of Scranton--Luzerne County or Monroe County--that puts him over the top. In Luzerne Biden is 10k down from Clintons's total, so I expect a lot of Biden votes will come in, and Trump is already ahead of 2016 in that county, so I expect his numbers there will be smaller.

In Monroe, Biden is 2k behind HRC while Trump is even with his 2016 numbers.

In almost all the counties adjacent to Scranton's Lackawanna, Biden is running 2-5 points ahead of Clinton's margins, so that's another reason those Luzerne will likely come in big for Biden.

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Response to fishwax (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 5, 2020, 07:35 PM

16. What you are pointing out is something that I had been hoping might be the case

A couple days ago I saw a report that there were 31 counties that actually had a higher turnout than in 2016. The 31 were (to me) obviously red counties, and that was concerning regarding whether that meant yet more deplorables woke up and decided to vote.

But my other thought was that due to the availability of mail-in voting here in PA for the first time this year, which wasn't available in 2016 (only "mail-in" would be regular "absentee" with a narrow set of "excuses" that applied), and it is obviously possible that there are Democrats and Independents in those red counties (and we hear about many here on DU) who opted to go ahead and register to vote for the first time AND vote-by-mail because it gave them the freedom of voting without possible confrontation by their MAGat neighbors if voting "in person" (and aside from COVID worries).

So I am hoping some "excess" mail-ins for Joe will be coming out of those red counties from Democrats there who never voted before.

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