Is there any update on NC? How many votes are still out? nt

[Boogiemack]

[Claustrum]

1. No one knows. They have till next week to receive ballots that are posted marked on or before

Nov. 3.

[Terry_M]

2. curious if anyone has official figures

but I read somewhere a couple days back there are ~200k absentee ballots that MAY be coming in over the coming days (because anything postmarked on or before 11-3 that arrives by 11-9 can be counted) but this isnt really promising because it's quite likely that not all of those are even coming back (many may be ballots that voters never submitted) and even if most of them make it they would have to break for democrats by huge margins for them to change the way the senate or presidential race ends up.

But because the number of outstanding mail ballots that COULD be coming back is higher than the margins right now, it's not really possible to call the race and it wont be till after 11-9 most likely.

[Mike 03]

3. This figure is a day old, but FWIW: 190,621

But there have been no updates since that figure was reported:

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Check this site out. It's incredible.

[Dem2]

5. Biden will need close to 70% of what's left

according to that site. Seems like a massive uphill climb.

[dsc]

7. the big thing for us, given that Biden doesn't need NC, is for us to save

Chief Justice Beasley. If at least we keep that it prevents the GOP from just drawing whatever liens they want.

[Amishman]

20. And the pool of sources isn't nearly as favorable as PA and GA

I was intrigued by this a few days ago when I saw Orange county had the most left and is very blue (3:1)

After looking into it, there are a bunch of very red counties with a lesser but significant amount outstanding as well.

Trump and Tillis are probably out of reach, but maybe we can scrape up enough votes to salvage some state level races, which had the Pubs do a lot of damage. As of right now they lead in every single state level judge race that was on the ballot, though all are rather close.

I believe I saw no updates from NC until the mail in ballot window closes on the 12th

[Wounded Bear]

4. They seemingly took yesterday off...

no change yet today.

[yardwork]

10. It's not that. They're counting ballots as they arrive by mail.

NC allows ballots postmarked on Election Day to arrive as late as Nov 12. They are trickling in and being counted as they arrive. The vote in N.C. for president isn't going to change. Trump won here, and so did Tillis. And our Democratic governor was reelects. As dsc posted upthread, we hope to save our Chief Justice and some important state races.

[littlemissmartypants]

6. Two largest counties, Wake and Mecklenburg, predominantly blue, yet to be counted.

Also, there is an urgent push for curing. I know this because my local Dem group sent out an sos, looking for volunteers to help with curing. I am still hopeful about the results. We may get a big surprise from the Old North State.

Link to NC Board of Elections:

https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=0

Also, this site is very informative and has frequent updates. I takes a while to load so be patient.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/graphic-see-which-counties-remaining-battleground-states-have-most-votes-n1246472

❤ lmsp

[mnhtnbb]

8. All the precincts of all NC counties have reported 100%

There are 99,000 outstanding absentee ballots that were requested and haven't been returned. That's the wait to see how many might be returned during the allowed time period.

That's all according to the NC Board of Elections website.

[littlemissmartypants]

9. Good work !! Thanks mnhtnbb. I'm too exhausted to do the research.

Thanks for the clarification.

❤ lmsp


ETA You may want to link that to the OP since that's who asked the question initially. Thanks again.

[littlemissmartypants]

12. Estimated 190,231 yet to be counted as of 2 hours ago. nt

[standingtall]

11. I'm skeptical of numbers as low as 100,000 even from state election boards

not because I think there is some kind of conspiracy going on, but just simply don't believe the can accurately trace the number of ballots. Why would NC have so fewer ballots then in other states about the same size or even smaller after election night. Were they so much better a counting then everybody else that they caught up on election night? and decided to take a break from counting?

[mnhtnbb]

14. NC was processing absentee ballots for weeks

prior to the election as they were returned to County Boards. On Election day all those ballots were then ready to be tabulated, just like in person votes on Election day.

Pennsylvania, for instance, wasn't allowed to process their absentee ballots (by law from their legislature) until close of election day. That's why it's taking them so long.

[littlemissmartypants]

13. Estimated 190,231 yet to be counted as of 2 hours ago. nt

[mnhtnbb]

15. What does that number represent? What's the source?

I have read there are about 40,000 provisional ballots, but adding them to the outstanding absentee ballots is less than 140,000. There's no way to estimate how many of the outstanding absentee ballots will be returned.

[littlemissmartypants]

16. Haven't we had this dicussion? Again, NC estimated ballots to be counted.

All data is sourced from an unofficial API powering the New York Times’ election site. The estimated votes remaining values might be off. Consult the state website and do the math to tabulate the current count as this is a moving target. Subtract total ballots counted (results) from ballots cast (received) and you will get the estimated number of ballots left to be counted.

Both numbers are clearly in flux as cast ballots are still being received and counted. The deadline for this is November 12th.

From NCBOE

Ballots Cast:
74.57%, 5,488,131 out of 7,359,798 ballots as of this post.

Ballots Counted

Total up the numbers for each candidate (ballots counted) and subtract from ballots received and you should get the number of outstanding ballots, i.e. those yet to.be counted.

BOE Link: https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=1373

NYT link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html

I think I have this right. I may be too tired to be making any sense. I'm sure you will be able to use the data sources and figure it out. Good luck. Have fun.

Over and Out.

[mnhtnbb]

17. The 7,359,798 represents registered voters

Not every voter casts a ballot. And not every voter votes every office on the ballot.

The NC Board of Elections has no outstanding votes remaining in any precincts of any county to be counted from the election. The only remaining votes to be determined are provisional ballots and any absentee ballots that may be delivered before the deadline. As of the info on the NC BoE website, there are 99,000 absentee ballots that haven't been returned. They might get anywhere from none to all. No way to know. Each county is now working through the provisional ballots and there is no way to know how many of them will end up being valid votes, but at most 40,766.

https://www.ncsbe.gov/

[littlemissmartypants]

18. But wait, there's more!

North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of Tuesday, and Trump currently leads by 76,515 votes. However, the state has announced that about 130,900 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of them will count. Mail-in ballots can arrive until Nov. 12 and still be counted, (caveat mine, if postmarked by Election Day) and at that point more results will be released.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

Rock On.

[mnhtnbb]

19. Indeed, there is!

Click on the 538 link and it takes you to another link in the 538 info straight to a press release from the NC BoE that states NC counties are in possession of 36,200 absentee ballots which have been returned by Friday, but not yet fully accepted as valid and then counted. The press release identified county boards that were meeting yesterday to process about 4300 of those votes.

https://www.ncsbe.gov/news/press-releases/2020/11/06/9-county-boards-elections-counting-additional-votes-today

My point in all of this is that Dems should not be hanging hopes on outstanding provisional or absentee ballots in NC changing either the presidential race or Senate race. It is a long shot how many more of the 99,000 outstanding absentee ballots will be returned at this point.

[littlemissmartypants]

21. Already been there, done that.

If this is true..."My point in all of this is that Dems should not be hanging hopes on outstanding provisional or absentee ballots in NC changing either the presidential race or Senate race." Then why didn't you say so in the first place? Your communication style gives the impression that you are determined to "have the last word" and delight in one-upmanship.

Again I am reminding you that this information is of little interest to me. You should repost it where it can do the most good. More to the point, Boogiemack is the one looking for answers, not me. Here's the link to Boogiemack's post:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214474838

Bye.