My guess? We've seen the high water mark for the GOP.

[Glamrock]

I know a good 15-20 people who’d never voted before. And then came along a reality tv star at the same time we were running a candidate that had 20+ years of “scandal”. Now, you and I both know, it was complete and utter bullshit. But after 20+ years of hearing this shit, and having every Repud scream about how awful she was every time they were in front of a camera, the con job was set. The rubes among us were ripe for the picking. And picked they got!

Now that he’s gone, or at least shuffling to the door? That’s it. I’ll be shocked and stunned if these same people I’m talking about vote again more than twice in the next 20 years. This entire coat hanger abortion that was the last four years was nothing more than a cult of personality. That’s it. End of fucking story, man. Game fucking over. 47.7%, as demographics continue to move in our direction, is the high water mark.

Texas is going to be ours in 5-10 years. The rural areas of this country are continuing to drain into the cities as there’s no work available. And living in a city where you’re exposed to different religions, sexuality’s, races, etc., forces you to change your views. Unless you’re an asshole, of course. And I realize there’s more than a few of them. But look at Georgia. And N. Carolina. Whether we win them or not, the South is changing is my point.

Now, I’m not so full of myself (at the moment anyway) to be blind to the arguments. Worst President in American history. Worst response to a disaster in American history. Etc. But I honestly believe that had he not been on the ballot, had the Senate been a midterm election, we’d have taken the majority by 10pm on Tuesday night. I firmly believe that. We’ll have to see with the runoffs in Joegia. But I think, at least for now, I’d rather be on our side. With a motivated electorate that wants serious change, rather than the Repud side that’s going to see a 10-15% drop off without the orange asshole on the ballot.

And with that, flame away baby! But I’m telling ya, these people I’m talking about? They ain’t voting again until it’s one of the Duck Dynasty assholes on the ballot. In the words of the mighty Malaise, you can take that to the bank!

[dchill]

1. Yep, and as that high water mark recedes...

... imagine the scummy stain it will leave for the rest of us to clean up!

[Glamrock]

5. There is that, my friend.

Never said it would be easy. But my guess is without a tv star on the ballot? Should get easier for us. As long as we can maintain motivation. That will be the key.

[Claustrum]

2. I hope you are right. I am on a wait and see stage.

Trump woke me up to vote the first time in 2016 (for Hillary) and I will continue to vote for the rest of my life. I hope his base would hide back under the rock and stay out of politics. But I am afraid that he awaken a new republican base that we have to deal with for years to come.

[calguy]

3. They aren't going away

They'll re-group, adjust their message and re-organize for the next election, just like we did last time. Sure they lost the White House, but beside that they did quite well picking up House seats and probably holding the Senate. It wasn't nearly the kind of bloodbath they were fearing.
They are not diminished in any meaningful way long term.

[Glamrock]

10. Uhhm, yes they are. There won't be a Trump on the ballot come '22 and probably '24.

I’m saying I know a bunch of folks (in my own family no less) that won’t be voting in the next election, or the one after that, or the one after that. The GOP is going to see a downward trend in votes. Mark my words. The test is to maintain where we are at.

[Cosmocat]

4. People were posting this here at DU 15 years ago

And here we are ...

[Glamrock]

7. Yes, true. I was here.

But you can’t say it’s not a cult of personality. That’s absolutely true. We gotta bust ass to win votes before they get another tv star or whatever.

Alls I’m saying is, I doubt we’ll see this margin again, barring a celebrity. I’m so not saying the GOP is dead. Just that, with him gone? I think we’ll have a bit more favorable winds electorally. Look at ‘18.

[Trailrider1951]

14. You know, Glamrock, I think you're on to something

Shades of Ronnie Raygun! The GOP then had a movie star to parrot their talking points (saying his lines) and implement their fascist agenda. They've always been more concerned with image rather than the substance of working for the public. Makes me wonder who they'll latch onto next.

[Glamrock]

16. Thanks dude (or dudette as the case may be)

I’m telling you my 15-20 number was extremely conservative. I didn’t take into account their families, you dig? Like, I counted my sister in law, but didn’t count husband and 4 kids. Just that one person, is going to be 6 less votes in ‘22.

[Trailrider1951]

18. Yeah, fewer voters because they all feed off each other. Still we need to work

like the devil to ensure that the next elections are elections for Democrats of all stripes, beginning with the upcoming Senate run-offs in Georgia (next January). Put in what you can: money, work, whatever you have to offer.

Also, not all Trailriders are dudes.

[Glamrock]

19. Right on sister!

Not only to your wisdom, but also your gender. ‘‘Tis why my addition in parenth’s!

[Cosmocat]

26. Ok, but ...

Thank you for the context.

I just would throw out that imo, he wont be gone. The future I see is one where if we root him out now, he declares he us running in 2024 to keep the zombie base in his pocket, spends the next four years lording over the party and slagging Joe like he did his boss and we have another life or death election in 2024 ...

[Turin_C3PO]

9. Yeah but it

does seem like a fair percentage of Trump’s cult are made up of people who only vote because of him. 2024 could see a drop in participation from those types. Of course, some moderates may go back to the GOP so the race will still be close.

[Cosmocat]

27. Not for nothing

But might want to be open to the idea that he will be the 2024 nominee...

[Ohiogal]

6. What you say, so true

It’s a cult, plain and simple, and if an R who is NOT TRUMP ever runs, I doubt they’d get the absolute fealty that that human manure pile got. I think a lot of these fools will go to their deathbeds worshipping him.

Demographics are changing, more strong women are standing up and getting elected, (like my idol Gretchen Whitmer) .... so I’m going to be cautiously optimistic!

Sad thing is, racism has to be taught. That won’t go away any time soon, I’m afraid.

[Glamrock]

13. Truer words have never been spoken, mama.

It’s still too early to escape the racism, but we as a species are moving beyond that. As slow a process as that may be. We’re genetically wired to fear “the other”. That’s gonna take some time.

[whopis01]

8. I think you are right about what would have happened in a midterm

There are a couple strategies that I hope our people can push over the next couple years to make sure it happens at the next midterm.

1)
The majority of the GOP Senators and Representatives know that Trump is done and a good chunk are happy to see him go. They are not rushing to his side in this election. The die-hard Trump supporters should be reminded of that a lot before the midterms. Make sure they know that their party and their local Congress people abandoned Trump.

and

2)
The GOP Senators are probably going to try to block anything that would make Biden successful. It is going to be said all over that Mitch McConnell is blocking legislation and being obstructive. The reality is that it is every GOP Senator that is being obstructive. If a couple broke ranks, things could get done. McConnell isn't the only vote in the Senate majority. They all play a role. McConnell isn't up for re-election in 2 years - so make sure that all the GOP Senate bad deeds don't fall at his feet - make sure they fall at the feet of everyone who is up for re-election.

So - I agree with what you say, I think the momentum is on our side and a lot who crawled out of the woodwork are going to crawl right back in. But that is all the more reason to push hard and make strides while we can.

[Glamrock]

20. Oh, don't get me wrong!

I’m not in any way saying we can sit back on our laurels. I just don’t think we’ll see this kind of high water mark by the GOP for years. It’s up to us to surpass what they bring.

[whopis01]

24. I didn't think you were saying that at all.

I didn't mean to make it sound like you were.

I was just continuing along your line of thinking.

[Glamrock]

25. Right on, right on.

I just don’t think that the fight will be this brutal as we move forward...unless they run Chuck Norris!

[PTWB]

11. We said that 3 weeks ago too.

We expected better of our fellow countrymen. We expected that they would reject the mean spirited petty narcissism and incompetence that is Trump and his brand of politics.

What we found out is that not only did they not reject it, they love the way it tastes and asked for seconds.

Sure, there are more of us than them... but there are still shitload of them.

I used to strongly believe that the GOP would fade away or move back to the center as their old, white, evangelical base died off. Now I strongly believe the opposite is going to happen.

The GOP’s rightward is going accelerate but with a brand of nationalistic authoritarian populism that appeals to low information, low education voters of all races.

[Mike 03]

12. I really want this to be the case

There are demographic reasons to hope this will pan out. I'm crossing my fingers that another "strongman" (charismatic populist) doesn't arrive on the scene in the next four to eight years so that we don't develop the issues that some European countries are facing, where it's becoming more difficult to beat these people back into the fringes of society. There are individuals who, for whatever psychiatric reason, seek out demagogues.

All things considered, I think you are making a strong case. Trump's fans skew older and I don't know if another charismatic populist will appear soon enough to capitalize on that demographic. The younger people who prefer autocracy to democracy is a concern. I don't know where they will go next. The number of Christian Nationalists, we are told, is shrinking. But that entity remains global, powerful, more politically-well connected than ever, and incredibly well financed. I'm perhaps more concerned about them than I ought to be.

Thanks for the thought-provoking post.

[Glamrock]

17. Thought provoking?

Shit, man. If my dumbass is making folks think....i’s batting 1000!

[Mariana]

15. We saw the beginnings of that before, with Sarah Palin.

The people who were so enthralled by her are mostly the very same people who essentially worship Trump.

[Midnight Writer]

21. The GOP is the party of the American Oligarchs.

As long as we have thousands of billionaires and millionaires whose interests are being catered to by the Republicans, the GOP will live on.

When is the last time you have seen a bill passed that seriously threatens the power and wealth of the very rich?

Now, when have you seen bills passed that hurts working class folks?

The deck is stacked. One Koch or one Adelson is equal to millions of regular families.

I remember the Republican Party "died" when Nixon resigned in disgrace.

And it died again when W Bush left office with a 28% approval.

And, of course, our changing demographics have been predicted to kill the conservative movement for decades.

Oh, and the youth vote. That was another supposed nail in their coffin.

The Republican Party is a disease on America. It may wax and wane, but it will never go away.

[Glamrock]

23. I'm not saying the party is dead or going away.

All’s I’m saying is, I predict a drop in participation without that asshole on the ballot. The challenge is to limit the drop on our side.

[wishstar]

22. Hope some magats are like one I know who never voted before except for George Wallace

I know someone who bragged 4 years ago that he would vote for Trump but hadn't bothered voting since George Wallace ran.
Not hard to figure out why and hope he and those like him never vote again.

[DeminPennswoods]

28. I agree

I can't help but think of the Battle of Gettysburg, the high water mark of the Confederacy.

[Sogo]

29. Great post, for your 10,000th!

I agree and was thinking today about how many in the cult are in it because of his celebrity from The Apprentice. It's a big draw for so many who may never have another brush with celebrity again.

[Glamrock]

30. Holy crap! I's at 10k?

Had no idea! Thanks for letting me know! How totally cool?