Study Considers a Link Between QAnon and Polling Errors

[applegrove]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/technology/study-considers-a-link-between-qanon-and-polling-errors.html

Study Considers a Link Between QAnon and Polling Errors

Nov. 6, 2020, 2:34 p.m. ET3 hours ago

By Cade Metz at NY Times



"SNIP.....

The researchers identified a strong statistical correlation between state polls that underestimated Mr. Trump’s chances and a higher-than-average volume of QAnon activity in those states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.

“The higher the support for QAnon in each state, the more the polls underestimated the support for Trump,” said Emilio Ferrara, the University of Southern California professor who is overseeing the study.

The study draws on an analysis of more than 240 million election-related tweets from June through September, which included widespread activity involving QAnon, a conspiracy theory that falsely claims that President Trump is facing down a shadowy cabal of Democratic pedophiles. The researchers then compared this data to election predictions made by the popular website FiveThirtyEight.com.

Mr. Ferrara suggests that QAnon believers were not properly captured by the polls because such conspiracy theorists tend to distrust mainstream media organizations like FiveThirtyEight or The New York Times. “If you distrust institutions,” he said, “you are less likely to participate in polls.” Participants are typically recruited by phone and in online surveys.

....SNIP"

[applegrove]

1. Something the right can go back to again and again and again in elections

if they keep QAnon alive. In Canadian elections lefties regularly watch if the Conservatives are in danger of winning a federal election and then break Liberal to stop it. There was overconfidence in a Democratic win this election in the US. Same thing happened when Kerry lost in 2004. 'Faulty' exit polls had him ahead by 2PM election day. I hope someone does an afterpoll of democrats to find out who didn't vote and why not.

[Baked Potato]

2. QAnon is gonna be their McGuffin.

A dangerous device they will some day regret not destroying.

[applegrove]

3. I had to look McGuffin up. Yes it is very dangerous. Unfortunately it

is in canada too.