the reason PA isn't going to be called? 85k provisional ballots that take a lot of time to process

[Roland99]

UPDATE on 85k+ PA provisional ballots (these are NOT mail-in): Election officials must adjudicate each provisional ballot & assess within 7 days whether the voter was registered & that the voter did not cast a mail-in ballot prior to requesting the provisional ballot

Link to tweet

[AlexSFCA]

1. we just a a random batch to get an idea

[PubliusEnigma]

2. Did they wait on Provisionals to call any other State? No. They will not change the result.

[LeftInTX]

3. I saw that on NBC just a few minutes ago

That is alot of provisional ballots.

They also don't know how they skew

[SoCalNative]

6. I'm sure that they know the voter's registered party

that would give them a big clue

[Tommymac]

11. See this for more enlightenment on skew

The OP and Post #3 have some good insight.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214483907

[tarheelsunc]

4. There are also 89k outstanding mail ballots...

And Biden is winning the mail ballots by a much stronger clip than Trump is winning provisional ballots.

Remaining mail ballots: https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

Counted ballot breakdown by type: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

[Roland99]

10. ah, yes, excellent point. Even if trump won 60/40 splits, Biden is getting 70/30 or 80/20 on mail-in

[tarheelsunc]

12. And I assume the provisionals counted so far are from smaller redder counties.

Would think the larger cities haven't gotten to the provisionals yet. I would expect the rate to shift in Biden's direction.

[standingtall]

5. I don't know how these provisionals are breaking

but could heard someone said they were split. That's not enough for Trump to overtake Biden and a small batch of provisional ballots in red counties could skew how there breaking. This thing really should be called.

[drray23]

7. still its not enough.

When all mail ins are counted Joe will have way more than the 27K he has now. Even if we take 27K as the lower limit, this means that the provisional would have to break 64 to 36 for Trump. Not going to happen given that a significant number of these provisionals are from heavy dem areas. Besides, 27K is a conservative estimate given that there are still mail in to be counted and it will go up.

[Buckeyeblue]

8. But Trump would have to win those by such a large margin that just isn't tenable

I think it'll be called after the next batch. MSNBC has been laying the groundwork for that.

I think we are close to a declared winner and then it's up to Trump to decide if he wants to resist and look like a fool or if he wants to do the decent thing and concede.

Trump can frame his concession speech as a victory speech about his unlikely victory in 2016, blag, blah, blah.

[onecaliberal]

9. At some point the mail ins are going to make the provisional irrelevant.

On edit: that’s not to say the vote is irrelevant, just the number.

[Roland99]

13. Kornacki - We're not used to seeing this many provisional. How big is a lead for a candidate...

before counting provisionals.