in a way, it's odd that people put so much stock in the media "calling" the election.

[unblock]

every serious stats analyst has basically said biden won.
the betting markets have the uncalled states all for biden around or over 90% each.

donnie needs to win 3 of the 4 (with one of the 3 being pennsylvania. that's somewhere around a 0.3% chance.

he needs to go to a race track and bet on the 10-1 long shot in 4 separate races, and the long shots need to win in the first one as well as in two of the other three.

it ain't happening. biden won.


and if you're looking for something official, for that you have to wait for the secretaries of state in each state to certify the vote.
then wait for the electors to cast their electoral college votes on december 14. then wait for the votes to be counted and survive any challenges on january 4 by the new congress.


what does the media calling it mean?

nothing, really. yet people can't rest easy until that happens, and they will rest easy once it does.

and yet, it means nothing.

kinda strange if you think about it.


as far as i'm concerned, biden won, and i'm fine with the media never calling it until january 4, i really don't care.
just as i'm fine with donnie never conceding. it really doesn't matter.

[Skittles]

1. because it seems ODD

if it was ANYONE but Trump they would have called it by now

[unblock]

5. i get that it's unusual, but really, what difference does it make?

i know, i get it, it feels like we're in limbo (even though we're not, we know biden won) and we want closure, some moment where we can feel the election is "over" (even though it never is until the first day of congress, or in rare cases, some days later).

it's kinda like a breakup where the other person did something unforgiveable and you've decided you're done with them. you never want to see them again, ever, and yet you still want to have that one conversation where you can tell them off or get those things off your chest. but you're never going to see them again, so really, what does it matter if they won't return your calls? that form of "closure" really doesn't matter, in the end.

[Skittles]

9. it's also RIDICULOUS

Biden has over 4 million more votes than that POS Trump, yet we are having to fixate on some votes here and there - the EC has to GO

[unblock]

12. no argument there. sadly it seems rather intractable to get rid of it

certainly not as long as one of the other major party is completely bonkers.

[SheltieLover]

35. Absolutely!

Ridiculous!

[uponit7771]

33. Shit tons !! Coverage of CV19 is being eclipsed with this bullshit when Biden won

[Demsrule86]

38. It makes a huge difference. The race will be

in limbo until the call is made.

[marybourg]

7. They don't even really "call" it.

They merely “project” it. It’s really inconsequential, especially with an opponent like tRump who won’t concede. So projecting saves no one anything.

[unblock]

13. exactly. they take a view that it's practically certain one candidate or the other won,

and then in the rare case where something happens later that dictates otherwise, the pull their projection or flip it.

i get that they don't want to do that often, but they have gone beyond their usual standard in this case.

but again, it's all pretty meaningless.

[Demsrule86]

39. No it isn't.

[c-rational]

2. Good point. The media has never been our friend. Maybe we should come to that hard realization and

move on.

[Demsrule86]

40. No they need to do their job.

[mr_lebowski]

3. Well, they've never really turned out to be wrong ...

Other than 2000, and really ... they weren't then either.

Think how famous the pic is of Truman and the newspaper. And then think why that's so.

We trust these people to correctly predict ... that all the other, later official shit is actually going to happen ... if they say it's going to.

Literally no other 'entity' has the same imprimatur at least not immediately after the election ... which is when we want to know.

[elleng]

4. Right.

Thanks.

((Has anyone suggested the reason is the huge number of 'absentee' ballots cast due to pandemic, resulting in need for the hundreds of countries throughout the country to hand count those ballots?))

[unblock]

11. that's why it takes a long time to actually count everything, sure. but in terms of projections,

basically 538 (nate silver) is done, they say officially they don't "call" elections, but they see no reason for the networks or the ap not to call it. it's over. donnie winning is beyond the level of statistical improbability that they normally use to "call" states, so the according the *numbers*, the election is over but for the formalities of a final count and certification and so on.

the remaining votes would have to come in in a highly improbable way for donnie to win, and miracle he needs would have to be repeated in 3 states. he's toast.

that's all the "closure" i need.

the media finally coming to the same conclusion or finally deciding to brave whatever violence or backlash they fear calling it might bring upon them from the lunatic right-wingers, that does nothing for me.

[Demsrule86]

41. No In PA Trump is done. Call it.

[BootinUp]

6. its another chance for them to do it right

have the best experts, etc. we still need media that is reliable, youre saying there isnt one that is meeting your standard?

[unblock]

8. i criticize the media elsewhere for right-wing bias, but not in this case. in this case,

i really don't care because it really doesn't matter.

they can call it tomorrow, or next week, or never.

it has zero impact on anything. the result is known barring a miracle or three for donnie or basically a supreme court coup, and the media calling it at any point isn't going to change the odds of those long shots.

[BootinUp]

10. I agree with the mathematics as you state, but in this case

I think its part of their duty inherited from the days of yore and its part of that institution

[unblock]

15. well if they're going by tradition, they should call these states will the same criteria

that they called the other with. and they certainly didn't wait for the last dribs and drabs elsewhere.

i think some states they called even before there were any ballots counted at all.

which is fair enough, biden was never going to win wyoming or whatever, but point is, hey, a miracle could happen, right? but they didn't use that criteria until it got down to the last few states.

but once again, it really makes not difference if they never "call it".

[BootinUp]

18. I actually think they are considering public reaction more

than usual. I dont have a problem with that.

[unblock]

21. i don't really have a problem with that in theory, either.

if they can present news in a way that's likely to trigger a riot, then certainly it's best if they find another way or maybe avoid that topic.

but i'm not sure their approach is reducing that sort of risk. it's *delaying* it, certainly, but if anything, it's probably increasing that sort of risk. sometimes you gotta let the steam out rather than letting it build until something blows....

[BootinUp]

27. I trust they are monitoring social media...

these days they have too. And i could be wrong but my take is most people allow time for these counts and calls. The time is just related to the large mail vote

[D23MIURG23]

14. Its an assurance.

People like assurances.

Beyond that, it comes from people at the networks who have good data and models that generally are reliable. Its rare for there to be a serious dispute about the outcome of an election after its been called.

It's kind of artificial, but there are good reasons for the media to be treated as an authority on this.

Having said that, its also true that at least one outlet (decision desk hq) which has called the election for Biden, and we do have assurances from the team at fivethirtyeight.com that Trump is very unlikely to win, so there is that.

Personally, I'm satisfied that Biden has won.

The call is important to me because I want Biden to have permission to act like he's won. I also want Trump to hear the major news organizations tell him that he lost the election. Because the media are treated as the authority on this, the call is what will cement the outcome in public perception.

[unblock]

17. agreed completely. good points in the last paragraph in particular.

the delay allows an increased perception that the election is closer than it is, or that the outcome is more controversial than it is.

and that is something to care about.

[SheltieLover]

36. It's always about perception vs truth

While I agree with the OP that in reality, the media callung it is inconsequential, there is the perception of questioning Joe's legitimate standibg as President elect in the general population.

It appears to me the media is allowing repukes to reframe the results. And they are trying very hard to do so.

If repukes can buy or otherwise coerce a judge to legitimize their bogus claims, the general population will say, "well, the media never even called it for Biden. There must be si
something to these claims."

Thus, the power & importance of the media, sadly. And, imo, they are misusung it by cowerig before the histrionic repukes. Absolutely sickeing.

[Iwasthere]

16. Where it matters Bigly I think

... Biden could be moving forward, many important traditions and duties.

[unblock]

19. i don't think it's holding him up at all.

i think he's already started planning for january 20 and building his team.

he doesn't really need the media to call it, either.

[CousinIT]

20. My concern is that it gives Trump + his cult continued reason to call it fraudulent and...

...to stir up violence and other shenanigans. I wish someone would change the nuclear codes. NOW.

The transition - due to all of anything POTUS and his admin are likely to touch needing to be sanitized because WH was a COVID hotspot -- and due to the known fact that Trump will not cooperate in any way, form, or fashion with Biden's transition team - will be a freaking mess.

[unblock]

23. if i were biden, my transition would be working 100% with the career civil servants.

i wouldn't trust any of the trump team idiots and liars anyway. i wouldn't even want a briefing from them. they don't care about america and they don't want biden/harris to succeed, so why even waste time allowing them to set traps or lead us astray?

and yeah, deep, deep scrubbing, and lots of replacing of furniture and such. personally, i'd raze the place and rebuild. gets rid of the listening devices at that same time....

[CousinIT]

29. Lawrence mentioned tonight the career civil servants being important to the transition.

They will be heavily relied upon. Trump's EO about reclassifying civil service workers as political goes when he does. https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/trump-has-found-whole-new-way-make-government-worse-whether-n1245041

They'll be happy to help Biden, no doubt. I hope he can restore the civil service workforce to normalcy once he's in there.

[MoonlitKnight]

22. By not calling it

They perpetuate a perception that it’s close.

I don’t think they necessarily need to call the whole thing. But Nevada is done. Put the pressure on Fox to go along or retract Arizona. Don’t allow them the chance to play both sides and host ridiculous conspiracies.

So yes, we know Biden will win. Projecting a winner is not official. But trump has killed a lot of norms and it would be nice to at least keep one.

[unblock]

26. yeah, the perception that it's close can have an impact.

even though that's silly. what happened on or by election day is what it is, it just takes a while to learn exactly what the count was. the order of the counting or the timing doesn't affect the outcome.

if the election wasn't particularly close, then it *never* was particularly close, even if it seemed that way at some point during the partial counting.

i think in the end, biden will have won by a 3-state margin and 306 electoral votes, which is a 36 electoral vote cushion. not a landslide, but hardly a squeaker, either. a clear win.

but yeah, i get that the delay can leave people thinking it was closer than it actually was.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. Absolutely this! I don't think DU gets how many average folks think right now it's 50/50...

There's a lot of people out there who think this race could go either way. They really, truly believe it's a toss-up and that narrative is harming Biden when he's putting together one of the most decisive victories of the 21st Century (only second to Obama's win in 2008).

[SheltieLover]

37. This!👆

Well said.

[MoonlitKnight]

43. And we now see, now that NBC and CNN called it

That Fox not only went along, but also called Nevada without a single additional vote added since last night for Joe Biden.

It was damned important to call it and I cried telling my daughter that a woman was just elected as Vice President of the United States.

[SDANation]

24. It's important

Because most of the 70 million who didn’t vote for Biden, will back down and accept the result, like we all had to go through in 2016. It affirms the narrative the campaign is over and now it’s time to accept and move on for most. Lingering only allows anger and hurt to reside. And with trump it’s especially dangerous because he is stating it’s fraud and the election is being stolen, fomenting further distrust in our system and deepening our partisan divide. That’s why it’s important even it means nothing.

[unblock]

28. i guess my faith in republicans conforming to traditional norms is just completely gone these days.

they will *not* respond by accepting bad news because their dear leader will respond instead with more denial and accusations of fraud and cheating. so him minions will echo that, probably violently in some cases.

and that probably has a lot to do with why the networks are delaying. they fear making themselves a target for these nutcases.

[marylandblue]

25. It matters because of Trump.

If this happened with any other President, both sides would say wait to see how the count goes. . Once the answer became obvious, the loser would concede. But Trump won't concede, he will scream and yell and sue until he has no other choice. We are hoping that if the networks call the race, he will at least stop fighting. Trump believes what he sees on TV, so it's not unreasonable to hope this.

[Wanderlust988]

31. Because we all want to see 'PRESIDENT-ELECT JOE BIDEN' on the chryon

That's why it's important! Put some respect on Joe Biden's name!

[chriscan64]

32. It is a custom, like having Frosty The Snowman shown at Christmas.

Most people don't watch Frosty, but it would be weird if you heard that it was cancelled. We are not around for official certifications, so TV's announcement is our surrogate "official" marker. We could celebrate a mathematical inevitability, but when did that start?

You are right that the announcement on TV is not any more official than someone crunching the numbers and deciding that it is over, but it allows a shared experience all at the same time.

[NurseJackie]

34. There's something satisfying about having an authoritative and recognized precise moment of victory...

There's something satisfying about having an authoritative and recognized precise moment of victory… especially when millions are eager to celebrate their joy and relief with each other.

I suppose that for some emotionaless "analytical types" they can be perfectly happy with "knowing what will eventually happen" and take comfort with the knowledge of how everything will assuredly play out in the end.

But others of us will get a great deal of satisfaction and delight from being able to hear our party's nominee CLAIM VICTORY for himself, and for OUR party, and for our nation and the world.

It will be a defining STARTING POINT where we can begin celebrating with others. It will be a moment to look back on and talk about. It's like the moment between midnight and the new year! (Compared to a group of disinterested people coming to the eventual conclusion over the course of a week that the new year had indeed happened a week previously.)

LET'S CELEBRATE!!! LET'S BREATHE A COLLECTIVE SIGH OF RELIEF!!

[Silent3]

42. You shouldn't judge this by your own satisfaction with the election results, however

I'm confident of a Biden win too, but when the major media outlets "call" the election, that has an important effect on the state of mind in the country as a whole. It's an important touchstone for public perception, whether or not it has any official or legal significance.

So for me, I do care when the news outlets declare a winner, because I recognize those declarations as psychological milestones in the public's sense of the history of our times. Many people will not move past denial or doubt without those media pronouncements.