44 of 50 States Swung Away from Trump in Comparison to 2016

[Stallion]

a week ago New York was the biggest state to swing toward Trump but those numbers disappeared under an avalanche of late Biden NY votes. States swinging toward Trump

Utah 2.9
Hawaii 2.7
Florida 2.2
California .9
Arkansas .7
Illinois .1

6-44 is good for last in the American League. Sad.

https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

[beastie boy]

1. Is any Democrat still trying to blame any other Democrat for losing ground in this election cycle?

[Wounded Bear]

2. Good link for election geeks...

Includes a downloadable spreadsheet you can play with.

[Thekaspervote]

3. With last 2 hardly swinging towards dotard at all

[dsc]

4. and California and Illinois are still counting

so they may wind up moving towards Biden as well. That leaves Utah (the Mormon 3rd party candidate wasn't on the ballot this time), Hawaii (no clue there), Florida (only real failure on the Biden campaign's part), and Arkansas (Hillary's home for 2 decades of her life).

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Even in those, Biden got a larger share of the vote than Hillary in 2016

A "swing to Trump" tends to indicate him picking up 2016 3rd party (eg Libertarian) vote, eg California:
Rep 2016: 31.62%; 2020 34.3%
Dem 2016: 61.73%; 2020 63.53%
Libertarian 3.37%; 2020 1.07%
Green: 1.97%; 2020 0.46%
assholes who wrote in Sanders 2016: 0.56%; not listed on Wikipedia in 2020 (maybe too insignificant this time? Hooray!)

Hawaii was similar - most of the Libertarian/Green vote share transferred to Trump, but Dem share still went up a little.

Utah had a large McMullin vote in 2016; Trump in 2020 went up 12.6%, Biden 10.2% over Hillary. In Florida the Dems crept up by 0.04%; that's probably one state where there was a 'true' swing towards Trump, rather than just 3rd party effects.

[Celerity]

6. your 2016 numbers are off, you almost doubled Stein's percentage (she got 1.07 %, not 1.97%)

The RW'ers Johnson, McMullin, Darrell Castle (Constitution Party), and Rocky De La Fuente (Reform Party) + other fringe RWers got around 5.5 million votes to Stein's a little less than 1.5 million (around 1.7 m if you add in the other LW minor and fringe parties plus Bernie write-ins) Bernie also got nowhere near .56% (which would have been around 760,000) There were around 400,000 undisclosed write-ins nationwide (only 12 states (Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wyoming) allowed write-ins and the only important one was PA, and there were only 6,060 write-ins for Bernie. The RW 3rd parties and write-ins garnered 175,000 votes to Stein and Bernie's combined 56,000. Bernie played no role in terms of write-ins deciding any state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. Those are national numbers; I gave the figures for California

being a state where the Democratic margin over Trump decreased, slightly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_California#Results

Current figures:
Democratic Joe Biden Kamala Harris 11,082,293 63.53% +1.80%
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 5,982,194 34.30% +2.68%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen 187,154 1.07% -2.30%
Green Howie Hawkins Angela Walker 80,729 0.46% -1.51%

and in 2016:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_California#General_election
Independent Bernie Sanders (write-in) 79,341 0.56%

I'm not saying they were decisive in any way, just that there were enough to be thought about when looking at the California swing between the 2 years.

[Celerity]

8. Ahh. Oki, sorry for the misunderstanding

Cheers