Super Covid is Here, and You Should Be Very Worried

[hellno45]

The Next Phase Isn’t Just About Vaccines. Mutant Strains of Supercharged Covid Are Emerging, and They May Be Here to Stay.

2020’s been an abysmal year, and it’s only fitting that it ends with something that many of us have worried about since the beginning of the pandemic now beginning to happen: a newer, worse strain of Covid. The virus mutating into an even more virulent and or deadly form.

I have some (very) bad news to share with you, and neither of us has time to beat around the bush. Say hello to “Super COVID.” It’s about to spread across the West, courtesy of Boris Johnson (you can thank him later.)

Let’s start with the numbers — these come from the BBC, by the way. The new strain of Covid is 77% more infectious than the existing one, the one that’s already hit. And yet it’s not any weaker. It’s just as deadly as the old one. Let me summarise that. There’s a new strain of Covid that spreads almost twice as fast and is just as lethal and dangerous as the existing one. Maybe you see why I call it “Super Covid.” If it sounds scary, that’s because it is.


https://eand.co/super-covid-is-here-and-you-should-be-very-worried-32a6a549449

[Iggo]

1. I've decided to be careful and let everyone else be scared.

Either way, I’ll live longer. 😉

[Thekaspervote]

3. ☝️☝️☝️☝️

[Baclava]

5. Booster shots forever, that's what they're predicting, new variations still respond to vaccines

[The empressof all]

13. I feel the same way

Since early March, I have only been out for short rides and for a Dr.s visit. I am fortunate that my husband has been able to teach from home and is willing to go along with what some may see as overly strident safety protocols. My adult daughter will do occasional shopping for things I can't get delivered and we visit out side from a distance. I'm naturally introverted so I don't really miss in person social interaction. It's been harder for my husband but he walks the dog every day and visits with neighbors outside and he is always masked and keeps a good distance.

I am not scared because I choose not to indulge in risky behaviors. I know I am doing everything I can to stay safe and protect myself and others. I would be extremely anxious to do otherwise. I know when I went to the lab for a blood draw, five people came in for Covid testing. Yes we were all masked and I was across the room, but I heard what they were there for. I counted down the 14 days afterwards until I once again felt secure that I wasn't infected.

[moonscape]

18. I approve of this most inspiring strategy :). n/t

[Raine]

23. Same here, being careful

but refusing to live in fear ... I'm done with that.

[exboyfil]

2. Morons not wearing masks or practicing social distancing

created millions of petri dishes.

[doubleplusgood]

47. +1000

[2naSalit]

4. I've been expecting this...

and here we are. I'll continue to stay home and mask up when off the property. I can't do much more than I am already so I guess this is my new life.

[Initech]

6. Exactly what happened in 1918.

It got worse, then it got better. I hope that's what happens here.

[angrychair]

9. Unfortunately no

Not like influenza. There is no season.
Hot. Cold. Summer. Winter. Covid doesn't care.

Doesn't care if you believe in it or not. Doesn't care how much you pray. Your nationality. Your language. Where you live. How much money you make.

There is a reason you see people like Graham and Rubio getting the vaccine while continuing to feed BS to to their ignorant masses.

By the time your average republican realizes they've been duped, if ever, it will be way to late.

Unfortunately it may be to late for most of us.

[Initech]

10. There's going to be an end to this at some point.

I seriously don't want to believe that we're going to be in this god forsaken pandemic forever. We will get this thing under control. That I want to believe. I trust science and even science says that we will get this thing under control.

[roamer65]

19. The death rate on the 1918 flu was around 6 percent.

The viruses are different, but as far as fatalities that flu virus was way worse.

It hung around in the summer of 1918, then exploded in October 1918 to June 1919.

They said people would turn blue, some blackish, coughing up blood. Many would catch it and be gone in 2-3 days.

[angrychair]

52. Yes

But its illogical to compare the death rates. That was during the tail end of WWI with millions of people moving around, many in horrid living conditions.

In 2020, we have modern medical facilities and no one moving around or living in a bombed out building with no electricity or running water.

Also very different types of viruses. If you survived the 1918 flu pandemic, very few had long term health issues.
Not so true of COVID.

My whole point being that its not an apples to apples comparison.

[angrychair]

54. Very different situations

Its illogical to compare the death rates. The 1918 Flu Pandemic was during the tail end of WWI with millions of people moving around, many in horrid living conditions.

In 2020, we have modern medical facilities and no one moving around or living in a bombed out building with no electricity or running water.

Also very different types of viruses. If you survived the 1918 flu pandemic, very few had long term health issues.
Not so true of COVID.

My whole point being that its not an apples to apples comparison.

[MFM008]

27. we dont know how it will play out

do we?
Doing what they told us in the first place will help alot.

[MustLoveBeagles]

7. As if this year didn't suck enough already

I guess we shouldn't be surprised by this.

Thanks for the post and welcome to DU.

[mvd]

8. K&R

Thankfully vaccines were developed early enough to also adapt. If this new COVID can go through masks easily, it’s an even bigger problem.

[Demsrule86]

38. It seems that the vaccine addresses different strains...it works on a common protein needed for

attachment to cells. Don't panic.

[qazplm135]

11. so that article says it's easier transmitted

not that it is more powerful or deadly. So the same precautions, and the same vaccines will be effective against it.

Keep isolating, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, not doing stupid stuff, and you have a good chance of making it to the vaccine.

Doesn't make this no big deal, but I don't think it's productive to say things like "you should be very worried" as if this isn't still the same virus, just more easily transmitted. It's not more deadly, it is more easily transmitted.

[greenjar_01]

41. Usual fearmogering

[ProfessorGAC]

49. In Addition,...

...there have been viruses in the past that became far more transmissible, but far less pernicious.
Some believe that happened with the common cold over time. Much more severe, but now far more transmissible (and there's a bunch of viruses causing a cold), but none all that dangerous.
Mutations in microbes don't always mean zombie apocalypse. A mutation could actually be a good thing.

[Horse with no Name]

56. This.

It is a virus. It will mutate because that’s what viruses do.
This new information isn’t causing the strategy to shift.

[58Sunliner]

12. Well I am now going with my N95, a paper mask over the outside, wrap around eye protection-

and a face shield.

[roamer65]

20. I've been wearing a automotive painting gas mask.

The inside part of the valve is covered with a piece of surgical mask material.

[58Sunliner]

31. Sounds safe! Do you have to change the filters?

[roamer65]

37. I will soon

Probably this week just to be safe.

[blitzen]

14. Don't get me wrong, but this article is not science...

It's spin from one somewhat idiosyncratic progressive's blog--someone who writes interesting things that lots of us probably agree with.

One the other hand, this particular piece is bullshit sensationalist alarmism. Yes, there are mutations ("mutant" is meant to scare us), some more and some less virulent than others. As some other posts on DU today have explained, the new vaccines will protect against such mutations.

[UTUSN]

16. Thanks for calming us somewhat.

[hellno45]

50. true, it is speculation but even from the science community most of the info about covid

is guess and by gosh.

[Denzil_DC]

15. The author of this article has no medical qualifications, his background's in economics.

There is a high incidence of infection in London and the south east of England at the moment, that's not in doubt. If you look at the scenes of vast throngs of shoppers in London's Oxford Street etc. in the last week or two and the pathetically shabby mixed messages from Johnson & Co. as they've continued to mismanage their response to the pandemic, it's hardly surprising.

Talk of a "Super Covid" in such scaremongering terms at the moment isn't much help and seems to be ahead of the medical research. Mutations in the virus have been logged around the world for some time, and a number of them appear to have made it more contagious. Here's a more sober article from 15 December:

What you need to know about the new variant of coronavirus in the UK

On 14 December, the UK’s health minister, Matt Hancock, told parliament that a new variant of the coronavirus associated with faster spread had been identified in south-east England. This has led to widespread concern, spurred by newspaper headlines about “super covid” and “mutant covid”. Here’s what you need to know about this new variant.

What do we know about this new variant so far?

It was first sequenced in the UK in late September. It has 17 mutations that may affect the shape of the virus, including the outer spike protein, according to Nick Loman at the University of Birmingham in the UK, who is part of a team that has been monitoring and sequencing new variants. Many of these mutations have been found before in other viruses, but to have so many in a single virus is unusual.

So it has a whole bunch of mutations, not just one?

Yes. To put this in context, however, the coronavirus is constantly mutating and there are lots of variants with one or more mutations. In fact, by July, there were already at least 12,000 “mutants”. The number will be higher now, though many mutations are rare and the viruses carrying them often die out.

Hang on, there are more than 12,000 variants of the coronavirus?

There are tens of thousands that differ from each other by at least one mutation in the genome. But any two SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses from anywhere in the world will usually differ by fewer than 30 mutations, and are regarded as all belonging to the same strain. Researchers instead talk about different lineages.

So what’s unusual about this one?

How fast it is spreading really caught the attention of researchers monitoring viral evolution. By 13 December, 1100 cases of the variant had been identified, mostly in the south and east of England, which is a lot because only a small proportion of viral samples get sequenced. “It’s the growth rate we are worrying about,” says Loman. “We are seeing very rapid growth.”

Are the mutations in this variant helping it spread?

We don’t know that yet. The variant is spreading faster than other strains in the same regions, but it isn’t yet clear why. By pure chance, some coronavirus lineages do spread more than others. For now, there is no clear evidence that this is due to these particular mutations. “At the moment, we don’t know if this is making a blind bit of difference,” says Lucy van Dorp at University College London.

How worried should we be?

It will take a combination of further monitoring and lab studies looking at the effect of the particular mutations present in this variant to find out if it really is more infectious. But so far, no mutation has definitively been shown to make any SARS-CoV-2 lineage more transmissible or more dangerous.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2263077-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-variant-of-coronavirus-in-the-uk/

[MerryBlooms]

34. rec. Thank you for the info.

[LovingA2andMI]

17. Five Stages of Grief...Some are

Somewhere between Bargaining and Anger. Acceptance is still quite far away. Thanks for the article.

[BannonsLiver]

43. What are the stages of sadism?

[The King of Prussia]

21. "these come from the BBC"

[link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846|

"There is no "nailed on" figure for how much more infectious the variant may be. Scientists, whose work is not yet public, have told me figures both much higher and much lower than 70%.

But there remain questions about whether it is any more infectious at all."

[Maven]

22. Umair Haque is a sobering voice on political and social trends but he isn't a doctor or a scientist

and has no business making pronouncements about "Super COVID" (not a thing) and predictions about where it will spread.

He should stay in his lane.

[Worried2020]

24. Momma Nature must be getting really pissed off with us Humans . . .

.
.

Who can blame her?

We been poking holes into her, destroying her foliage, wiping out other species

bombing the crap out of her and now,

threatening to ruin her ecosystem for millenniums with our nukes . . .

She don't need us ya know, everything would be quite fine without us humans here

We should ponder that . . . . . .



W

[BigmanPigman]

25. Doctors on CNN said that all viruses mutate.

This is normal. Of course we must take all the self protective measures but rest assured that the common flu is mutated and will mutate again. That is what they do. It is the normal progress as a virus of this type. Don't freak out, this is not "new" news. It has already mutated a lot since it was originally discovered.

[LudwigPastorius]

26. Article is behind a registration wall that I'm not signing up for.

Last edited Mon Dec 21, 2020, 05:20 AM - Edit history (1)

So, maybe this question is answered in it, but how do they know the rapid spread of this variant isn't due to something like people easing up on preventive measures (mask wearing, social distancing, hand washing, etc.)?

[Denzil_DC]

28. No serious medical authority will be able to answer that question at the moment.

But these have been daily scenes on London over the past few weeks, so ...

Link to tweet

Estefi
@Esteft
3 days ago London Oxford Street was packed with people almost no masks, definitely no social distancing...Now, London enters Tier 3...and shops remain open...Doesn’t make sense this tier 3, does it?
🤷?♀️

[MerryBlooms]

35. No mystery as to why the spread is out of control. Wow. Again, thanks for the info.

[Chainfire]

29. This latest iteration may not be the "super bug."

It may be just Covid 1.1 with version 2.0 in the beta testing phase. We may be looking at DOS, with Windows on the way.

It has made me wonder, were there deniers during the great plagues of Europe? The ones who would never give up their fleas?

[Hotler]

30. World War Z. They're coming.....

[Hortensis]

32. This is no "supercovid" and no more virulent than the most common.

I believe the many scientists who are studying this around the planet, not woo-spewing alarmists.

VET THE SOURCES. Who answering this OP knows who the fuck "Umair" is? Or wondered what his/her/its agenda for this dishonest spew is?

[Dem2]

39. It may not be as bad as stated

But many European countries and now Governor Cuomo are looking to ban flights from the UK.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/andrew-cuomo-trump-administration-covid-variant-uk-ban_n_5fdfd70fc5b60d416343641d

[Denzil_DC]

46. There is a major COVID hotspot in London and the south east of England.

Any responsible authority would be seeking to avoid travellers carrying whatever strain of COVID this is into its territory.

Whether it's plain old COVID or the over-hyping OP author's thinly based claim of a "Super COVID" is academic at this stage.

Looking at his Twitter feed last night, he mentioned the European restrictions as backup for his "theory". That's weak.

This scaremongering OP should have sunk without trace. I and others have felt the need to chip in with what factual information we can supply, which has kicked it repeatedly, but that means it currently has 35 recs, possibly from a number of members who didn't read beyond the OP. This is how maybe well-meaning but erroneous information spreads.

[58Sunliner]

33. Generally, in order to be more transmissible it would have to be more virulent.

Meaning it would require a lower exposure (smaller viral load), to get sick. Otherwise people would not be getting tested I would think.
Unless they are just testing population at large. I would think the qualifier would be how they are finding this variant.

[BannonsLiver]

36. Meh

The author is an economist. I’ll wait to hear from actual epidemiologists and other medical experts.

[The King of Prussia]

40. And the experts have started speaking...

[link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/european-experts-urge-caution-over-new-covid-mutation-uk|

Seems like Boris might have been telling porkies (yet again). We'll see.

[BannonsLiver]

42. Thank you

Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if BoJo was telling porkies again. As you said, we’ll see. More would be well served to take that approach.

[Chakaconcarne]

44. I'm not sure these vaccines are going to be as high as 95% effective.

The moderna has been released based on 2 months (Sept-Nov) of data on the 30K population. 25% of the volunteers were healthcare workers, the other 75% were those in high risk occupations. Most every healthcare worker is wearing PPE, masks, social distancing, etc... Most other workers are doing the same... Most of these volunteers are in urban areas where masks are mandated, social distancing is practiced and/or shutdowns are occurring.

Since it would be unethical, they could not control for these factors. They have factor in to the efficacy and could factor in considerably.

Healthcare workers are getting it first.... We will still be wearing masks well into 2nd quarter and beyond. We won't no the true effectiveness of the vaccine until summer at the earliest.

[ibegurpard]

45. Why?

What good is being very worried going to do me? I already wear a mask in public and have extremely limited interpersonal contact.

[scipan]

48. Here's a good article from New Scientist

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2263077-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-variant-of-coronavirus-in-the-uk

Generally, there are mutations in the spike protein that makes for a closer binding to the ACE2 receptor on our cells so that could very well increase transmissibility. They know less about other mutations. It's not earth shattering.

[BannonsLiver]

51. Interesting and informative

Thanks for posting. I wish more people would go that route than posting the thoughts of some goober economist on Medium.

[maxsolomon]

55. I'm too burned out to be worried about it anymore.

Had a maskless down and outer ask me where the greyhound station was today. didn't even sink in that he was unmasked until the encounter was over.