Contracting a reported case of CV-19 is similar to aging this many years

[Shermann]

Last edited Sun Dec 27, 2020, 08:15 PM - Edit history (1)

I'm somewhat fascinated with actuarial life tables and have done a rough calculation here.

In 2018 there were 867.8 deaths per 100,000 population in the US. The average death probability is thus .87%. A 56-year-old male has a death probability closest to this based on the Social Security 2015 Period Life Table:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6_2015.html

So this group can be thought of as the median. Half of the deaths will be younger people, and the other half will be older. So they will have similar mortality characteristics as the country as a whole.

The case fatality rate for CV-19 in the US is 1.7%.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

If you add the 1.7% to the median group death probability, the result is 2.57%. This is close to the death probability for a 71-year-old male.

Contracting a reported case of CV-19 is similar to aging 15 years in terms of mortality. I wonder...is it also similar in terms of long-haul symptoms? Perhaps those recovered don't get all of those years back.

[Karadeniz]

1. Interesting info... Thanks for sharing!

[Mossfern]

2. As a 72 year old woman

with heart damage. I regret reading this post.

However, my rower will arrive within 10 days,and I plan to keep on keeping.

[Shermann]

3. Well those probabilities don't kick in if you exercise at home and don't get infected

That's what I've been doing.

It's been difficult to weight the risks associated with this pandemic due to all the contradictory and anecdotal information. I think the 15-year aging frames it in a way which helps to nail it down for everybody.