Prediction: Another Electoral Landslide for Obama

[WCGreen]

By Larry Durstin

Politics is many things but one thing that it is not is rocket science. That’s why the above headline should not come as news to anyone.

And no, the upcoming 2012 electoral landslide is not simply due to the traveling vaudeville show billed as the Republican presidential primaries – though it’s literally impossible to underestimate the collateral damage done via the “discourse” proffered by this particular group of scenery chewers. Still, it’s hard to be too critical of Republican voters for being at least fleetingly mesmerized by the zany antics of a number of these political thespians.

After all, how could any country club Grand Old Partier not be seduced by the bravura performance given by Herman Cain as “The Kingfish” in his own updated version of “Amos ‘n’ Andy”? The Republicans who pretended to support him (in order to prove that they were not racists) were genuinely tickled by his ability to trot out mindlessly rhythmic phrases like “9, 9, 9” with a big Cheshire Cat grin. True, the white women who came forward to accuse him of harassment dampened the ardor a tad for Cain’s modern day minstrel show. Still, there’s little doubt that the joy Republicans of all stripes derived from rubbing the pizza man’s head for luck will abide long after the votes are counted.


http://www.coolcleveland.com/blog/2012/01/prediction-another-electoral-landslide-for-obama/


A good detailed prediction of what will be in November, 2012....

[surfdog]

1. I agree

I don't see a path to victory for the Republicans

[Ter]

2. Another?

Did he have one in 2008? There are a total of what, 536 Electoral Votes? I'd say you need 400+ to have a real landslide, and 40+ states. Last time we saw that was 1988.

I'm not being difficult, I just can't call 2008 a true landslide, because it cheapens 1964, 1972, and 1984, and isn't even close to 1980 or 1988. Perhaps we need another term for something like 2008. Solid win? Obama handily won 2008.

[surfdog]

8. I consider 2008 a landslide

Just look at the states that Obama took from the GOP

Nevada Colorado Iowa Indiana Ohio Virginia North Carolina Florida

[phleshdef]

12. I'd say having twice as many electoral votes as your opponent in a 1 on 1 election qualifies.

It doesn't cheapen anyone's previous win. And there is no officially accepted definition of what constitutes a landslide.

[zipplewrath]

3. Name the states

It woulda helped if he had named the states. Most of the work on a state by state level doesn't reach those kinds of numbers. He has to "rewin" some reddish/purple states to have that kind of landlside.

[Proud Public Servant]

13. Yep. see my Post (#9) below n/t

[AtomicKitten]

4. I think Pres O will win without breaking a sweat.

Mittens, the GOP's default candidate, is being dismantled by his fellow candidates on a daily basis.

It's a beautiful thing, really ((wipes fake tear from eye)).

[WCGreen]

5. Besides that, their natural base is dying off or being marginalized.

[AtomicKitten]

7. Did you see the new poll?

IPSOS POLL: Obama 48, Romney 43; Obama 53, Gingrich 38; Obama 48, Paul 41; Obama 51, Santorum 40.

[WI_DEM]

6. If unemployment continues to fall then things should go pretty well in November.

[Proud Public Servant]

9. Don't count on it, and do the math

Hope for it, but don't count on it.

270 electoral votes needed to win
Obama won with 365 electoral votes in 2008
BUT, after 2010 census adjustments, those same states (plus DC and NE-1) only have be 359 votes.

Is Obama going to pick up any states he didn't win in 2008? No.

Ok, is he going to lose any states he won in 2008? I'd say he'll lose Indiana for sure, and will lose New Hampshire if Romney's the nominee. That's 15 electoral votes. I think North Carolina also looks shaky. Virginia looks bluer than I had expected, but will be harder to win if Gov. Bob McDonnell is the GOP veep candidate (a very likely choice). So that's another 28 electoral votes lost, for a total of 43. Now Obama's at 316 electoral votes.

Okay, 316 electoral votes is a margin of only 46 votes. What does that mean? It means...
If he loses FL (29) and PA (20), he loses.
If he loses FL and OH (18), he loses.
If he loses PA, OH, and a couple of small purple states (IA and NV, for example), he loses.

So, if everything breaks his way, it could be another landslide (no way he gets to 350, though; the article's author is smoking crack if he thinks Obama's keeping Indiana, and without it he's at 348). But it's just as likely to be a nail-biter.

[peace13]

10. And...Ohio is a big if right now.

I don't even know what he could do to impress the average voter here.

[Proud Public Servant]

11. Exactly

My hope is that corporate-raider Romney would be even more repugnant to working-class Buckeyes, but I don't know Ohio well enough to say.

[peace13]

14. The fact that most of the Bible belters would not consider Romney a Christian evens the field a bit.

Of course we have Diebold counting in many regions so regardless of what the voters want, there are the machines to be considered. In addition to this I am amazed at how many seriously racist folks we have. I am in and out of assisted living facliities in the area and people are not ashamed to speak out against black workers and our .5 black President. It really is mind blowing. I feel strongly that we need to look for victory outside of Ohio this time around!

[LonePirate]

16. I think AZ is a likely flip from red to blue. Local boy McCain is why it was red in 2008.

Another red to blue possibility is North Dakota. The economy is really booming there with plenty of out of staters to dilute the state's red tendencies.

I still suspect to lose a state or two with IN being at the top of the list. Still, big red states like GA and TX will be a lot closer this year than in 2008 and that will be the true reality check in this election. If Obama achieves a miracle and either of those states moves into the broad toss-up category, then he is looking at an easy re-election campaign.

[Proud Public Servant]

17. Obama's numbers are miserable in AZ

And Romney polls very well there. Anything could happen, but flipping AZ seems liek a long shot.

[LonePirate]

18. I think you are underestimating the Hispanic voter anger in AZ.

Romney will not perform as well in AZ as people think, despite his ties to neighboring UT. Obama will make a big push in AZ and I think he will win it.

[Proud Public Servant]

19. I hope you're right! n/t

[Ter]

21. Obama will not come close to winning ND

AZ I agree with you though.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

15. 'Amos n Andy Minstrel Show'?

Of what relevance to your thread title is that gratuitous stereotyping of Herman Cain? Cain is a pompous fool, but so are Bachman, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, and Romney.

What does that stereotyping have to do with the forces favoring a Democratic political tsunami long predicted by such analysts as Ruy Teixera?

For me, alll that paragraph does is make me extremely suspicious of your source, Larry Durstin, someone I've never heard of before.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

20. From his blog, here are his credentials:

Larry Durstin is an independent journalist who has covered politics and sports for a variety of publications and websites over the past 20 years. He was the founding editor of the Cleveland Tab and an associate editor at the Cleveland Free Times. Durstin has won 12 Ohio Excellence in Journalism awards, including six first places in six different writing categories. LarryDurstinATyahoo.com