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Nate Silver: Typical N.H. Winner Gets 39 Percent of Vote
If Mitt Romney stays close to our forecast and gets about 39 percent of the vote in New Hampshire tonight, his performance will be highly typical for the winner of the primary.
Since 1972, the winner of contested New Hampshire primaries has gotten an average of 43 percent of the vote and a median of 39 percent.
If incumbent presidents are excluded from the calculation, the average is 39 percent and the median is 38 percent.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/live-blogging-the-new-hampshire-primary/?src=twt&twt=fivethirtyeight#typical-n-h-winner-gets-39-percent-of-vote
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