Iowa's Sen. Chuck Grassley will be 88 this year. Shelby, 86, announced his retirement already.

[DFW]

Cross-posted in the Iowa forum:

Iowa's Grassley is 87 now. He will be 88 in September.

Iowa is a Senate seat we actually have a chance to win.

For the record, I am NOT neutral though I have never set foot in the state. I have a friend there who is young, dynamic, capable, and a perfect "clean-cut all-American boy" image, perfect for such a race. He is also a solid Democrat with his heart in the right place. He ran for state auditor (a bigger deal in Iowa than in some states) a few years ago, and beat the well-established Republican hack occupying the post at the time. He will be 38 this year, and looks 20 years younger. His name is Rob Sand.

I met him several years ago, and really liked him, not a given, considering our very different backgrounds. I was blown away when the New York Times Magazine ran a huge, multi-page feature story about how Rob, as a young(er) prosecutor, cracked an obscure, very clever, and very lucrative lottery-rigging scam in the Midwest. It flew under practically everyone's radar--except his. I would love to see him on Senate committees, alongside Amy Klobuchar, giving Republican hacks a zinging one-two punch with their sharp questioning.

Rob is so far reluctant to take such a big leap. From State Auditor to the US Senate is no small jump, but I am reminding him of the examples of Marco Rubio and Tommy Tuberville, two Republican hacks who came out of nowhere to the US Senate, and have certainly done little to nothing for the country, whether in the Senate (Rubio) or in their previous careers (Tuberville), and certainly don't show any promise of doing so. ONe time, while we were together in Washington, I asked Rob if he knew, or had been in touch with Howard Dean, who might be able to give him pointers with his campaign for State Auditor. He said no, but he'd love to. I said, "nothing easier than that." I called up Howard on the spot and handed the phone to Rob, expecting them to chat for five minutes. Instead, they were on the phone for half an hour (!!!). Howard said afterward he was very impressed, and where did I come up with this guy?

Now, being elected to the Senate from Iowa is an uphill battle for any Democrat these days. Just ask Theresa Greenfield. But Grassley's performance of late (not to mention pig farmer Joni's) hasn't exactly given Iowa any pressing reason to elect yet another Republican to the Senate except inertia. I have no illusions that it would be an easy race. The Republicans would pour $100 million into that race if they sensed it had a chance of tipping the balance of power one way or the other. With that kind of money, the Iowa Republicans would be the odds-on favorites to win an Iowa Senate race, even if their candidate is one of Joni Ernst's pigs. Still, who would have bet money on our winning Georgia's two Senate seats a month ago? If Grassley retires, I hope Rob goes for it. Even if Grassley DOESN'T retire, I hope Rob still goes for it--Grassley is almost FIFTY years older!--, but I'll have a lot more understanding for his not wanting to.

[calimary]

1. Most interesting!

Sounds like a prospect with potential! How wired in is he with other Iowa Dems?

[DFW]

3. I can only speculate

But I think pretty well. From what he told me, Des Moines is a pretty small city, and the Iowa Democrats are pretty well networked. Rob himself is from a small town of 8000 in some remote corner of the state, so he definitely didn't know the top people from the word go. But after his fame from busting the lottery scam ring and being elected state auditor, I would think he'd be well-known by now among all the state's top Democrats.

[Celerity]

2. The Bowhunting Influencer of Iowa Democrats

Rob Sand figured out how to win statewide office as a Democrat in Iowa, and now the presidential contenders are seeking his counsel — that is, when he isn’t deer hunting with bow and arrow.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/07/us/politics/iowa-democrats-2020.html



CARROLL, Iowa — When I asked Rob Sand, the Iowa state auditor, if he could recommend fascinating Iowans to profile, he suggested himself. Then he suggested we go deer hunting. “We can get you in a tree stand this week to spice it up,” he said in a text. Mr. Sand’s fondness for hunting — cultivated during his childhood years in rural Iowa but also conveniently appealing to the state’s more conservative constituents — helps explain why he was the only non-incumbent Democrat to win state-wide here in 2018. And that, in turn, helps explain why he has become one of the most sought after endorsements in what could be the most important state in the most important presidential primary for Democrats maybe ever.

Over the last year, many of the 2020 candidates have asked him for advice, viewing him as a next-generation oracle of rural Iowa but also as a model for how to win as a Democrat in a state that President Trump captured in 2016 by more than nine points. Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., had coffee with him in February and recently called him to talk about agricultural policy. Elizabeth Warren met with him at a coffee shop during a recent visit to Des Moines. He speaks frequently to Cory Booker. Michael Bennet gave him his book. Terry McAuliffe, the former governor of Virginia, had breakfast with him when he was thinking about getting into the race.



“In the early primary states, he is a truly important influencer,” Mr. Booker said on Wednesday in a brief phone interview while en route to Iowa. “Rob’s endorsement for any candidate, should he choose any candidate, would be very significant in his state in general, and especially in a caucus state,” he added. In Iowa, presidential fortunes can rise or fall on the quality of the on-the-ground relationships candidates build over months of campaigning. Savvy, connected state politicians can provide organizing and fund-raising muscle and inject local star power into campaign events, but they can also help jump-start the infectious enthusiasm that often propels a candidate to victory on caucus night.

For the Democratic candidates blanketing the state, the fact that Mr. Sand is only in his first year in office is not a drawback, but exactly the point: He is especially coveted because he is the latest Democrat to have cracked the code in Iowa. Mr. Sand usually invites candidates over to his house for coffee so he can be at home with his two young sons, Tait and Axel. Sometimes he spars with candidates on his very active Twitter feed about his favorite food, breakfast pizza. He has not invited any of them hunting. “It’s just a lot of sitting there, not talking,” he said, over an egg-and-cheese lunch at a coffee shop near the capitol, “which doesn’t really improve their chances much.” Mr. Sand is 37 but looks like he is 19. He is from Decorah, Iowa, part of the “Driftless Area” in rural northeast Iowa, so called because glaciers left it untouched during the last ice age. The area also happens to be the locus of the Midwestern shift of voters from Obama to Trump. His father was a doctor. His mother was a physical therapist for disabled children.

snip

Link to tweet

AnOther Magazine Fall Winter 2002/2003

Adolescents
Photographer: Terry Richardson
Models: Susan Eldridge, Celine, Douglas Wenz, Jeisa Chiminazzo, Rob Sand, Amy Decker, Sintia, Zachary E, David Joachim, Eric Cumming, David Morrance & Jimmy Sheehan
Stylist: Venetia Scott
Hair: Dennis Lanni
Make-Up: Rose-Marie Swift

[DFW]

4. We never discussed the primary season, but I'm not surprised

As the article pointed out, Rob was the only non-incumbent Democrat to win a state-wide race in Iowa in 2018. That was the race where I put him in touch with Howard. That was in April. Seeing as how Rob won, whatever Howard told him obviously didn't hurt. As the inventor of the 50 State Strategy, Howard knows all too well that what plays in Boston will not necessarily play in Sioux City. Rob knows it too. So, it makes sense that many national candidates sought him out for consultation about his home turf. I have no doubt that Howard steered more than one of them his way.

Actually, when we first met, it was in December of 2017, and he was walking around this gathering we were both at over New Years, looking a little forlorn on the "get-dinner-on-your-own" evening. I asked if he wanted to join me and my family, and he was grateful for not having to eat on his own. Not only that, I had reserved a big table at a Lebanese restaurant (we LOVE Lebanese food), and Rob had never had Lebanese food before. He is now a fan, and we got to be friends. He gave me his schedule for the spring, and out of sheer coincidence, it turned out we would be in Washington on the same day in April (when I called Howard). We consulted informally from Germany after that (I am definitely NOT a political consultant! LOL), and tossed ideas back and forth. Whatever my meager contribution, Rob DID win his race. Despite his claiming to by a "fascinating Iowan," he is actually fairly modest, though far from unsure of himself. I think he'd make a great Senator, and do Iowa proud.

[Celerity]

5. I fear we lose Axne in IA-3 in 2022, which then, if the other 3 Rethugs (Miller Meeks won by SIX

votes in 2020 in IA-2) hold, would mean zero Dems in Congress from IA, unless Sand or someone else can beat either old Grassley or grandkid Grassley. They already have the state Trifecta (Gov, House, Senate at state level). IA is turning into IN and MO, just without a large urban area which guarantees a Dem in the US House.

IF Chuck retires and his grandson wins, we can forget about a Senator from IA for a long time I fear, unless Ernst truly fucks up somehow (2026, IF we lose POTUS (the old 1st midterm curse for POTUS's, which is going to probably hammer us nationwide in 2022) will be our only good chance until the 2030's at that point). Pat Grassley will soon be dug in like a tick on a bird dog.

The deep white parts of the Midwest are becoming a new 'semi-solid south', outside of the handful of big urban areas (Chicago, Minneapolis, and Detroit) that save us from complete ruination in IL, MN, and MI. Milwaukee not so much, but still a fair amount. The A-A vote in Milwaukee is so hard to turn out, the hardest big city A-A bloc in the nation IMHO. Maybe Mandela Barnes can change that.

[Turin_C3PO]

7. It's very sad that

the rural Midwest has fallen under the Trump spell. They used to be largely Democratic. I think (I may be wrong) that rural Minnesota is still competitive for Dems in some areas.

[Celerity]

9. It was, but our last hold-out, Collin Peterson, got smashed in 2020, after a superb 30-year run (so

many wins in a ruby red district). He was a centre-right conservative Dem, but totally accepted him as we had NO hope for better. He also rarely caused issues, a class act, unlike the 2 other hard centre right Dems, Both those 2 are/were in deep blue districts, one is gone, Lipinski (his campaign against Marie Newman, was despicable and funded by hard RW dark money, he falsely, and outrageously called her a holocaust denier, anti-Catholic, made up fake bad health reports about her family's resto, etc), and one still there, Henry Cuellar, anti LGBTQ/pro forced birther, gun humper ( a- rated by the NRA), pro big oil/pro private prison, who campaigns/fundraises for the racist, climate change denialist Rethug John Carter against Dems, and is the ONLY incumbent Dem I support primarying in Congress, as his district has never elected a Rethug in its entire history. We just need a decent centrist who actually believes in our party's core foundations (unlike Cuellar) to challenge him, not these Berniecrats who are bad matches for his district, and who keep losing primaries to him.

[Turin_C3PO]

13. Yeah, Cuellar needs to go.

I’m very accepting of Dems who are in districts where they can’t be “progressive” but being anti-LGBT is a bridge too far. I’m certain his district would support a centrist Dem over him (I consider Cuellar a conservative).

[Celerity]

16. also the campaigning & fundraising for the Rethug Carter, which kneecapped MJ Hegar big time in 2018

4,200 flipped votes (out of closing in on 300,000) and she would have won, and Cuellar worked the Spanish speaking areas/voters of Carter's district hard for him, smdh.


MJ Hegar fires back at fellow Democrat Henry Cuellar for helping her GOP opponent fundraise

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/13/mj-hegar-fires-back-henry-cuellar-helping-her-gop-opponent-fundraise/



https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/11/democrat-henry-cuellar-fundraising-republican-john-carter/

This is not the first time Cuellar has taken an unorthodox tack. He's known as one of the most conservative Democrats in the U.S. House and was a longtime ally of former President George W. Bush. In 2001, then-Gov. Rick Perry appointed Cuellar Texas Secretary of State.

[rurallib]

11. The Rita Hart / Miller Meeks saga is not over yet. I believe Hart will still win the seat.

[Celerity]

17. oh, wow, I had not checked up on it in a week or two

Facing a possible recount in D.C., U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' lawyer on the hunt for more rejected ballots

'Every legal ballot was counted,' until they weren't.

https://eu.press-citizen.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/02/05/mariannete-miller-meeks-attorney-hunting-for-more-rejected-ballots-rita-hart-recount/4387817001/

On Monday, U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' legal counsel was digging around in several counties she won handily, looking for a handful of uncounted ballots. Any such ballots could prove necessary to her holding onto the seat should Congress investigate her historically close six-vote win in November.

In her petition to the U.S. House' Committee on Administration, Rita Hart, a Democrat, identified 22 ballots she argued were improperly excluded from the state's certified results, the net of which would put Hart ahead of Miller-Meeks by nine votes. For her part, Miller-Meeks has argued up until this point that all the legal ballots have been counted, that Hart presented just those ballots that put her ahead, though three of the 22 ballots in Hart's petition were cast for Miller-Meeks. Miller-Meeks' lawyer, Alan Ostergren, has argued that the 22 ballots represent "routine" errors that occur in every election.

But this week, Ostergren was trying to drum up some of his own. The Quad-City Times first reported that the former Muscatine County Attorney had reached out to the Appanoose County auditor and learned of 23 rejected ballots that were divided into the following categories:

Two uncounted absentee ballots were filled out with information from deceased voters.
Two absentee ballots were submitted in unsealed envelopes, only one of which was returned voted.
One absentee ballot was filled out by an inactive voter.
One absentee ballot was filled out by a voter who had moved out of state.
Two absentee ballots were late or bore no postmark.
One absentee ballot was disqualified for lacking a required signature, but the voter did cast a ballot at their precinct.
Three absentee ballots lacked the required signature.
Two absentee ballots were received after Nov. 9's noon deadline.
Two provisional ballots were not counted because the voter was not a resident of the precinct.
Four provisional ballots weren't counted due to a lack of proof of ID.
Three absentee ballot envelopes were returned without ballots in them at all.

[rurallib]

20. I wouldn't believe a word Alan Ostergren ever uttered.

[Bettie]

15. Pat Grassley is horrible

he makes grandpa look like a decent guy in comparison.

Plus, he's spearheading moves to make it harder to vote here, because of course he his.

I really want to get out of this god forsaken state.

From what I've heard of Rob Sand, he's a good guy, but there are WAY too many morons who listen to hate radio all day in their tractors and work trucks. I've seen the change in the 19 years I've lived here, from pretty evenly divided between the two parties to being surrounded by horrific nasty Republicans who literally want liberals dead.

[Turin_C3PO]

18. What happened to Iowa?

There used to be a ton of Democrats there.

[rurallib]

19. We discuss it over and over - no one can seem to get a handle on it

My speculation is the hate radio someone else mentioned -

I even wrote a column on it right after the recent election:

https://blogforiowa.com/2020/11/08/its-the-radio-stupid/

[Bettie]

21. I honestly do think that it is right wing AM radio

In every barn, tractor, and farm truck and even factories, it is playing non-stop all day long. It comes in consistently and is the background noise to everything a lot of people do.

Even if they aren't actively listening, it seeps into their subconscious.

The other factor is the ongoing radicalization of fundamentalist religious organizations. Their churches preach hate and they go forth with hate in their hearts for "sinners" (people who aren't just like them).

I've lived here for 19 years and have seen it happen...people who used to be relatively reasonable are complete raving lunatics with regard to politics.

[gademocrat7]

6. Thanks, DFW

for sharing the bio of Rob Sand. He would be a great choice for replacing Grassley.

[bucolic_frolic]

8. Grassley will be totally unaware forever

He won't leave until they have to wheel him out horizontally.

[colsohlibgal]

10. Think You're Right

He looks like he’s stuck in the 1950s plus he seems to have no imagination at all.

[rurallib]

12. Iowa has a crying need for a decent governor. Kim Reynolds is Gawd-awful.

Rob Sand is surely #1 choice to run for governor also. The bench of up and coming Dems is not that deep here these days.

[OnDoutside]

14. Is there something the Biden Administration could do on tariffs,that would win big support in Iowa ?