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Amishman

(5,523 posts)
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 05:58 PM Mar 2021

The reality on promoting a new weapons ban

I see a lot of frustration, justifiably so, after the recent shootings. Many seem to think with just a little coaxing, we can get a new assault weapons ban passed.

There are more obstacles than I think many here realize.

1) passing the House. Our margin is thin, and we are dependent on some reps from purple areas with a strong firearm tradition. It will likely be extremely tight getting to votes in our own party for it.

2) passing the senate. Getting 10 Republicans isn't happening, no matter how many shootings occur, so forget that avenue. That leaves ending the filibuster. Manchin is reluctant as is Sinema. I think we'll have more getting cold feet about it if the reasoning is to put a gun ban to a vote. I can see that only adding to Manchin and Sinema's reluctance. But also can see Warnock, Kelly, and even Hassan being wary of voting yes under those conditions with 2022 looming in their gun friendly states.

3) The courts. There are plenty of Trump judges who would throw an injunction and this would quickly hit the supreme court. Not only do we have to overcome a 6-3 conservative majority, there is also the matter of the Heller decision. The 08 Heller decision indicated that guns that are in common use are constitutionally protected for ownership. This gives them a tailor made excuse to strike it down. This common use challenge to assault weapons bans has not been heard by the court yet, but could easily tear down not only a future national ban but many existing state controls.

Se will call this defeatism, it's just realism. The cards are not in our favor for pushing a ban at the time. Senator Coons pretty much said this recently, indicating that on gun control passing a small bill is better than failing to pass a large one. We should listen and make background checks our focus, it's still progress. Sadly it's also still a long shot, but at least might have a slim chance.

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The reality on promoting a new weapons ban (Original Post) Amishman Mar 2021 OP
As much as I hate it we could also lose both redstatebluegirl Mar 2021 #1
Yup, we have a bunch of people who don't realize how much this could hurt us Amishman Mar 2021 #4
I think many of them live in bright blue areas. redstatebluegirl Mar 2021 #5
But Elessar Zappa Mar 2021 #8
Maybe they should reclassify domestic mass shooting events as terrorism bucolic_frolic Mar 2021 #2
Every year we do nothing puts millions more of these gunz on the street. Hoyt Mar 2021 #3
So we should be reasonable at actually try something that might work Amishman Mar 2021 #6
Why not just let you gun protectors have one six gun and you have Hoyt Mar 2021 #10
See, that attitude is why we can't get anything passed Amishman Mar 2021 #13
LMAO. You should be willing to give up your gun-fetish to stop this crud. Hoyt Mar 2021 #14
Again, the belligerent uncompromising attitude is a great example of why we fail Amishman Mar 2021 #15
Better to achieve something significant, like fixed, low cap mags. Hoyt Mar 2021 #16
Well yes Calculating Mar 2021 #17
Part of the problem. But, your legally owned gunz and all the crap those with that industry Hoyt Mar 2021 #22
And yet former guy, his enablers and supporters have killed 500,000 people without abqtommy Mar 2021 #7
Playing politics while innocent people get mowed down is not the answer jcgoldie Mar 2021 #9
Thank you. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. crickets Mar 2021 #11
You won't even get all the Democratic Senators supporting an AWB hack89 Mar 2021 #12
Push for something reasonable like universal background checks Calculating Mar 2021 #18
I agree. Nt hack89 Mar 2021 #19
Absolutely. Straw Man Mar 2021 #21
Don't agree. That's the position of those trying to protect their gunz. Hoyt Mar 2021 #23
You call your perspective realism. LanternWaste Mar 2021 #20

redstatebluegirl

(12,252 posts)
1. As much as I hate it we could also lose both
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 06:02 PM
Mar 2021

the Senatevand the House in 22. They would pound us to bits with that in purple states.

Amishman

(5,523 posts)
4. Yup, we have a bunch of people who don't realize how much this could hurt us
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 06:07 PM
Mar 2021

The backlash in PA would be severe. Say goodbye to any chances of flipping PA1. PA7 could easily be lost, and even PA6 in play. That's just in my corner of my home state

redstatebluegirl

(12,252 posts)
5. I think many of them live in bright blue areas.
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 06:09 PM
Mar 2021

They are insulated in the same way bright red areas are, they think the whole country agrees with them if they would just vote.

bucolic_frolic

(42,062 posts)
2. Maybe they should reclassify domestic mass shooting events as terrorism
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 06:05 PM
Mar 2021

and hyper-up the punishment and schedule.

Amishman

(5,523 posts)
6. So we should be reasonable at actually try something that might work
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 06:15 PM
Mar 2021

Our current approach is asking too much every time the issue comes up, so we walk away with nothing.

It's like ending every job interview by asking for a million dollar a year salary

Amishman

(5,523 posts)
13. See, that attitude is why we can't get anything passed
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 07:10 PM
Mar 2021

Please excuse the snark, but we might as well ask for world peace and a pony for all the good little children.

A ban with grandfathering is likely a bridge too far. A ban with forfeiture is fantasy.

Focus on the obtainable and we might get somewhere, finally pass something of substance - in this case background fhecks. I remain convinced that the hard push for a new assault weapons ban after Sandyhook cost us getting background checks.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
14. LMAO. You should be willing to give up your gun-fetish to stop this crud.
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 07:27 PM
Mar 2021

Background checks won’t do as much as assault style weapon ban or requiring them to have a fixed low capacity mag, curbs on toting, weapon limits, etc.

Amishman

(5,523 posts)
15. Again, the belligerent uncompromising attitude is a great example of why we fail
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 07:51 PM
Mar 2021

Anyone who disagrees is accused of being a gun fetishist. At the same time no rational explanation or productive path to how something more than background checks could actually be accomplished.

It's time for our party's gun safety platform to grow up and wake up to the reality of what is and isn't feasible. Most of your list is firmly in the latter. Again, this is the point Senator Coons was trying to make - better to achieve something modest than time and time again swing for the fences and strike out.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
16. Better to achieve something significant, like fixed, low cap mags.
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 08:01 PM
Mar 2021

You guys just want to protect your gunz.

Calculating

(2,950 posts)
17. Well yes
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 08:10 PM
Mar 2021

My legally owned guns haven't hurt a thing other than maybe an old tv I shot out in the desert once. I will not give up my legally purchased property.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
22. Part of the problem. But, your legally owned gunz and all the crap those with that industry
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 09:00 PM
Mar 2021

and the people who own and profit from them have directly or indirectly contributed to the problem.

abqtommy

(14,118 posts)
7. And yet former guy, his enablers and supporters have killed 500,000 people without
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 06:41 PM
Mar 2021

firing a shot. It ain't over 'til it's over.

jcgoldie

(11,525 posts)
9. Playing politics while innocent people get mowed down is not the answer
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 06:48 PM
Mar 2021

If you don't use the majority you have to enact desperately needed legislation on the most important issues of the time because you are fretting about losing the next election then whats the point of winning control in the first place. Fretting over this or that district in Pennsylvania as people get mass murdered weekly by automatic weapons is not good enough.

crickets

(25,835 posts)
11. Thank you. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 07:03 PM
Mar 2021

The surest way to fail at passing any type of gun legislation is to bemoan the odds and give up without trying.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
12. You won't even get all the Democratic Senators supporting an AWB
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 07:07 PM
Mar 2021

Let’s not forget what happened after Sandy Hook - the AWB was killed by a Democratic controlled Senate.

Calculating

(2,950 posts)
18. Push for something reasonable like universal background checks
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 08:12 PM
Mar 2021

An awb is a losing proposition politically.

Straw Man

(6,591 posts)
21. Absolutely.
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 08:34 PM
Mar 2021

An AWB is political suicide. Furthermore, it would do nothing like people seem to think it will. Even a complete ban with confiscation, etc., wouldn't show tangible results for decades, given the number of rifles that would still circulate on the black market. And even then, it wouldn't put an end to mass shootings. It might lower the casualty count somewhat. That's the best that could be hoped for.

A complete ban on semi-auto firearms isn't even worth discussing. Any such attempt would banish the Democratic Party to the political wilderness for generations to come.

Background checks have a much better chance of passing. They need to be crafted carefully and reasonably -- easily accessible background checks that are free or reasonably priced would be hard to argue against. Also, they should exempt in-person temporary transfers, such as taking a friend to the range and handing him/her your gun to try out. Currently that is illegal under New York State law without a background check that has to be conducted by a federally-licensed dealer and would need to be done twice: once to transfer the gun to your friend and once for your friend to transfer the gun back to you. To me, that's pointless and excessive.

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
20. You call your perspective realism.
Tue Mar 23, 2021, 08:19 PM
Mar 2021

I see it as little more than faith-based prophecy and reading tea-leaves and chicken entrails.

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