My concrete suggestion on how to handle Manchin & Sinema, and pass jobs bill and voting rights:

[Fiendish Thingy]

Last edited Mon Apr 12, 2021, 11:53 PM - Edit history (2)

1) Biden and Schumer announce that Manchin and Sinema are in charge of bipartisan outreach, and responsible for generating 10 Republican senate votes on some version of both infrastructure and voting rights bills- these bipartisan supported drafts would become the opening negotiating point between the parties.

2) give them a deadline for obtaining these Republican votes- end of May for infrastructure, end of July for voting rights.

3) if the deadline passes and Republicans aren’t on board with some version of the bills, and aren’t negotiating in good faith, then Schumer moves to reconciliation for infrastructure, and executes the nuclear option to kill/modify the filibuster to pass HR1 as currently written. As Republicans have been given the opportunity for bipartisan cooperation and input, Manchin and Sinema will be expected to support both votes for reconciliation and the rule change to pass HR 1.

4) If Manchin and Sinema don’t vote to move these bills forward, and continue to obstruct, they will return to their home states for the August recess to find the streets filled with vaccinated constituents demanding action on Biden’s jobs bill and on voting rights. In addition, billboards and media ads will demand that Manchin and Sinema support these bills. Before adjourning, Schumer warns Manchin and Sinema of the consequences if they don’t vote to support these bills, as written, upon their return to DC after Labor Day, which will be:

5) if, after all this, Manchin and Sinema still refuse to support passing the infrastructure bill through reconciliation and changing to filibuster rules to allow HR1 to pass by simple majority, then Schumer strips them of all committee assignments, including Manchin’s chairman position, leaving them as members of the Steve King/MTG club. Their assignments would be reinstated once they vote to support the bills. (Edit to add: Ok, so that process is more complicated than I initially described it- it doesn’t mean Schumer is powerless, or should stand by and do nothing, if it comes down to it, Manchin and Sinema’s peers may have to weigh in as well) If, by The end of September, they still don’t support the bills, then Jamie Harrison informs them both that they will receive no more campign funds from the DNC moving forward.

The stakes are too high for the future of the Democratic Party and for American democracy to cater to these two any longer. If they value their careers, they will comply. Switching parties is not a viable option, unless they both plan to retire from the senate in 2024.

to those who oppose my concrete suggestion:
What is your concrete suggestion on how Dems should move forward on Biden’s jobs bill and voting rights? (Edit to add: still waiting to hear constructive, realistic ideas)

(Note: “work hard to flip more senate seats to blue in 2022 to make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant” or “make DC and Puerto Rico states so the new senators would make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant” are both unrealistic, unviable options, since, without out passage of HR1, which must pass by this fall to block gerrymandering that will cause Dems to lose the house before a single vote is cast in 2022, Dems lose their majorities for a decade or more, and the GOP install their candidate as president in 2024, regardless of the will of the people. So, what else you got?)

[Sibelius Fan]

1. Are you not worried that the actions you call for would cause either or both

D Senators to change parties, thus handing the Senate back to McConnell? The public humiliation tactics could cause their spines to stiffen.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Not at all- unless they plan to retire in 2024, they won't switch parties.

While Manchin and Sinema dither about their votes on the jobs bill and voting rights, Schumer can spend that time getting Biden’s judicial nominees confirmed (a couple dozen vacancies to be filled at this point, IIRC).

[Ninga]

4. If such Senators have the time and inclination to repeatedly call for bi-partisan legislating, then

their leader may rightfully assign them the task of championing such an effort.

It’s part of the job.

[crud]

2. I like the idea about

Manchin and the other one should find the 10 R's needed. It's the natural consequence of their objections. Parents try to teach kids through natural consequences whenever it's safe to do so. Like when Jr. slams his bedroom door, he looses his door for a while.

[PortTack]

5. Good ideas!

[FBaggins]

6. Unfortunately - this misunderstands where the pressure is

It also assumes that Schumer has leverage, when (at least in the case of Manchin) all of the leverage is in the other direction.

Switching parties is not a viable option, unless they both plan to retire from the senate in 2024.

I doubt that they agree with you (again, certainly in Manchin's case)... but he'll be 77 at that point. Why assume that he doesn't intend to retire already?

And expecting the people of WV to rise up in numbers sufficient to convince him that he's not representing his constituents... shows a misunderstanding of WV. They might very well respond to a poll indicating they support a voting-rights bill or an infrastructure bill... but that's an entirely different thing than supporting ending the filibuster and giving Democrats unfettered control of government.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. Manchin has the leverage to pass or block the bills, but Schumer controls the consequences. Nt

[FBaggins]

8. No he doesn't

If those "consequences" are things like removing him from his committee assignments... McConnell would be more than happy to give them all back... and then some... and remove every Democrat from committee chairmanship.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. But you're assuming one or both will switch parties - I don't. Nt

[FBaggins]

11. Of course they will

If Schumer is stupid enough to organize large protests in their states - making clear that they can't win as Democrats... and then remove them from committees... what possible reason would they have to stay?

Fortunately - Schumer isn't stupid.

And there's nothing like being hated by Democrats to get you loved by Republicans.

[tritsofme]

16. lol, it occurred to me that a new organizing resolution would be required to strip Manchin

of his committee assignments...and presumably in a 50/50 Senate, Manchin would need to vote for his own punishment! Super plausible...right? 🤣 😂

[FBaggins]

24. Indeed... the position of Senate Majority Leader isn't even in the Constitution

Schumer only has power to the extent that there are 51 votes behind him.

While Schumer lacks the power to do much to Manchin without his consent... Manchin can effectively remove every Democratic chairperson... Schumer as majority leader... and defang VP Harris' power in the chamber. Yet the OP thinks that Schumer has leverage here?

As I said above... the good news is that Schumer already knows these things and isn't stupid. We are fortunate that Manchin considers himself a Democrat... even if many here do not. Let's not try too hard to change his mind, eh?

[lark]

9. Brava, this is excellent - new thinking could solve this.

Only concern I see is that they abdicate the Dem position and put forward repug only policies that other dems will reject, but then Sienema would totally risk her seat. I think it more likely that she might provide pressure for Mancin to come along to save her own career as a Dem. Az is I believe much more liberal than WV.

[brooklynite]

12. Your approach fails...

they will return to their home states for the August recess to find the streets filled with vaccinated constituents demanding action on Biden’s jobs bill

Says who?

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Says Rev. Barber and the Poor People's Campaign, and Move On

They already organized around the minimum wage issue, and are preparing for action on voting rights- but may not wait until summer.

[brooklynite]

14. What advocacy groups promise says nothing about what Manchin/Sinema's voters will do

[tritsofme]

15. It is incredibly silly to think you could impose such sanctions on Manchin

without causing him to switch parties, handing the keys of the Senate to Mitch McConnell.

This is fantasy, not a serious proposal.

[Elessar Zappa]

17. So what ideas do you have

to encourage Manchin to support our agenda? Is it just fine and dandy that he's threatening to block all of Biden's proposals?

[tritsofme]

19. Elect more Democratic senators, and make him irrelevant.

I trust that Senator Schumer is doing everything possible to push the president’s agenda, but what OP proposed is just unserious.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. Electing more Democratic senators is a naive fantasy without HR1. Not

[tritsofme]

26. I don't accept that premise. Regardless, it does not make your proposal any less ridiculous.

Do you actually think Manchin will vote to strip his own committee assignments? 🤣😂

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. Without HR1, Warnock loses his seat in 2022, guaranteed

Regardless of what voters say, the legislature has given themselves the power to overturn/block certification of results they don’t like. Kemp will appoint Warnock’s successor unless HR 1 passes.

So, folks can GOTV all they want, and work really, really, really hard to flip enough seats to make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant, but without HR1, multiple state legislatures will give themselves the same powers that GA legislature has, and Dems will lose the House through gerrymandering alone before a single vote is cast, and once that happens, it won’t matter if we win 10 seats in the senate.

If Dems lose the senate in 2022, Manchin won’t be chair of any committees, and Schumer could refuse to place his name in consideration for committees in the next organizing resolution- he could even expel Manchin from the Dem caucus.

The fact is, keeping one’s powder dry until the November 2022 elections will be too late- the fight is NOW, for the next few months.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Schumer knows it
Pelosi knows it
Klobuchar knows it
Schiff knows it
Clyburn knows it
Obama knows it

It really doesn’t matter if you “don’t accept the premise”.

[tritsofme]

28. HR1 is not a panacea, and it realistically has no path forward in the Senate.

You can be sure the Democratic leaders you mentioned are prepared to fight and win elections in that environment, your defeatism notwithstanding.

No one is arguing for “keeping powder dry,” Schumer simply lacks the power to carry out the threats you demand.

[Elessar Zappa]

18. Good ideas.

I do worry about them switching parties but we can't be held hostage to them forever.

[WarGamer]

20. wouldn't work.

What are the unintended consequences of flexing on a Senator from a State that supported Trump by 70%

[Crunchy Frog]

21. We'd better make sure that Justice Breyer retires first.

[onenote]

23. IMO you have a better future as a fantasy fiction writer

Than as a political strategist.