Reaching 'Herd Immunity' Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

[demmiblue]

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

Early in the pandemic, when vaccines for the coronavirus were still just a glimmer on the horizon, the term “herd immunity” came to signify the endgame: the point when enough Americans would be protected from the virus so we could be rid of the pathogen and reclaim our lives.

Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.

Continued immunizations, especially for people at highest risk because of age, exposure or health status, will be crucial to limiting the severity of outbreaks, if not their frequency, experts believe.

“The virus is unlikely to go away,” said Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta. “But we want to do all we can to check that it’s likely to become a mild infection.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

Link to tweet

[Phoenix61]

1. As soon as the FDA gives the vaccine final approval

It will become mandatory for a lot of places that are holding off doing that at this point. From an international business perspective it makes sense. I think even DeSatan will come around. International travel brings in too much money and if the US ends up on no travel lists he’ll push for mandatory vaccination.

[FBaggins]

3. The rest of the world is well behind us

The days of the US being on a "dangerous to travel to" list are probably in the rearview mirror.

Europe is around half of our vaccination rate at this point. The global average is about 1/6th of our rate.

On edit - "rest of the world" meaning on average. Obviously, the UK and Israel are well ahead of us.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Actually, the USA has caught up with the UK for vaccine doses given

Go here, and select 'vaccine doses' and 'cumulative' for the graph: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

The UK is ahead on people with at least one dose, but the USA is ahead for those fully vaccinated, since the UK has stuck with the 11-12 week wait (and hasn't started using the J&J one dose vaccine yet).

As far as cases and deaths go, it's still worse in the USA. I would think that's because the UK's recent lockdown has been a lot stricter than the average measures in the USA. It's a bit concerning that the death rate has been steady in the USA for a few weeks now. That may show states are opening up as fast as they dare, and are toying with a new wave, especially if any other variant gets a hold.

[FBaggins]

12. That depends on how you measure it

The gap may also just be evidence that they were correct to delay second doses and focus instead on getting more people their first dose.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. Given the situation in the UK at the time, with the UK variant having just exploded

I think it was the right decision for the UK at the time - it got the most vulnerable their first shot quickly (the UK very much concentrated on age order). The graphs of excess deaths by age for the UK do show a very orderly decrease this year for the oldest age group first, then the next, and so on. Whether the larger gap would have helped other countries so much then, or now, I don't know. The UK has got the overall case and death rates well below the US ones since then, and I think that has been the stricter lockdown.

[Hortensis]

4. Yes. And various areas should achieve herd immunity, with some

of them empowered to stomp outbreaks out. Normal living's going to look nice to those living where the virus is still a real threat.

It seems likely that before too long new hot spots and cases will be seen to concentrate in areas of low vaccination rates and among the unvaccinated. Right now the picture's clouded by the virus just "catching up" in areas it hadn't yet colonized as well as others.

Also, more infectious new variants are now infecting generations who previously considered themselves acceptably low risk. And worse ones may well develop.

Also, more people will recognize that long-term and permanent health damage is a real consequence for many.

All those should join societal prods to push, nudge, push vaccination percentages up.

And should people start fearing for their children's lives, game mostly over for the virus.

[WHITT]

5. Indeed

if we were going to rely on volunteerism, we would never get there because of the RightWing Neanderthals, but we will see business after business following universities, medical campuses, and baseball. If you want to work here, you need to be vaccinated. You want to enter here, you need to be vaccinated,

BUT, this is why the vaccine 'cards' need to be drastically upgraded, because right now an 8-year-old can create a false one.

[bullwinkle428]

7. I work for a division of a big multinational (everyone here would be

totally familiar with it), and I work with several people who I know to be Trumpers. Corporate let us know, in rather certain terms, that they saw the vaccine as best pathway back to some sense of normalcy, in terms of both business and life in general.

We heard the message that while they could not mandate the vaccine for employees, they also stated that one's future may be somewhat limited, if they could not travel, participate in group settings, etc. It's amazing how many of these Covid/vaccination skeptics willingly lined up, with their sleeves rolled up for that needle!

[LisaL]

8. The vaccines are also being tested in children, and

as soon as they are approved for those under 16, we will have lots of additional people that can get vaccinated.

[uponit7771]

16. +1, I'm watching those studies closely as soon as my kidos can get vaxed they're going

[Lovie777]

2. I think we will get there. ...

[Peppertoo]

6. This is a bit pesssimistic

A lot of people have had Covid already. The combination of those who have immunity from getting the disease and those who have immunity from the vaccine is going to put us close to the threshold, especially in New England and other areas with high vaccine uptake.

[mopinko]

9. except getting it doesnt confer long lasting immunity.

6 mos is a figure i have heard. lots of ppl getting it twice.

[uponit7771]

17. damn

[Peppertoo]

22. It's likely to be longer than 6 mo

In terms of numbers, lots of people have gotten it twice. In terms of percentages, it’s low.

The news is overdramatizing the second cases.

[underpants]

11. Watching sports on TV you'd think it was over

The NFL draft heavily emphasized that everyone there had been vaccinated and that the team draft rooms were fully vaccinated but on stage there were no masks and lots of hugging.

The golf tournament yesterday in Tampa was wide open. I don’t think I saw a single mask on anyone. I don’t think it was near the regular sized crowd but they were 2-3 deep, tightly near each other, and no masks. I know - golf in Florida but still.

[BannonsLiver]

18. The NFL did a great job of putting the event together

So not sure the criticism is warranted. Country club sports are for snobs so I don’t watch them and couldn’t speak to how they handle their mitigation efforts.

[underpants]

21. Okay I didn't mean that as criticism

It was just unusual to see that much up close and personal.

[IA8IT]

13. Petri Bags keeping covid and it's mutations on the move. Good job Fox et al.

[Initech]

15. Fuck anti-vaxxers. That's my post.

[redqueen]

19. Variants are a serious concern

These anti vax nutjobs are gonna fuck around and create captain trips.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

20. We need vaccine passports and to exclude/shun assholes who refuse to be vaccinated