On Likely Voters.. Read this from Gallup in 2010, to understand the whole LV thing.

[progressivebydesign]

Though it's from their 2010 Congressional polls, it is VERY clear about their models for "likely" voters. They lean republican, period. Period.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143468/likely-voters-demographically-typical-skew-conservative.aspx

I think that many people assume that the "LV" number is from asking the person in THAT poll if they're likely vote, but that's not the case. Good info in there. They also mention that their polls include 150 cell phone calls for every 850 landlines, and that the "landline calls are random." Which makes me wonder what the cell phone calls are???

[cthulu2016]

1. Land-line/cell ratio is periodically adjusted. Today they use 500-500

It is striking how fast things have moved. They were 600/400 this summer. Went to 500-500 Oct 1.