The President's Reelect Bumps Up Nine Points Since October 8 At 538.com

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[BumRushDaShow]

1. K&R

[graham4anything]

2. Obama/Biden GOTV. MittMan and Boy Glove have been defeated

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. All We Can Say With Confidence Is That President Obama Has The Clearer Path To Victory

As of the now the path isn't as clear as it was prior to the first debate but it's still substantially clearer than Willard Romney's path. The probability of the president winning is anywhere from 3-2 to 4 or 5-1 depending on which model or gaming site you visit.

I look at the demographics. All Obama has to do is hold anywhere from 38% to 40% of the white vote to win because of the overwhelming support he is receiving from people of color. For historical reference, even election losers like Mike Dukakis and John Kerry received 40% and 41% of the white vote. The fact that the president can win with numbers that those two gentlemen lost with is because the non white vote is now a much larger share of the electorate.


38% doesn't strike me as some huge hurdle. He got 43% in 08.

[GOTV]

4. Here's hoping Obama's debate performance tonight ...

... helps to undo the damage from the last debate performance.