Damn! Ohio now in play!

[edhopper]

New Hampshire as well.
I thought these were clearly in the Obama column.
I am not comfortable with the way the polls are going.
Two weeks ago Obama had well over the 270 Electoral votes needed.
It is close to a tie now with to many tossups.

[spanone]

1. polls are manipulated...

[graham4anything]

2. Obama has a 5 point lead in Ohio. (most likely more). Rob Portman basically conceded the state

Sen Portman basically conceded yesterday
Ohio is not close

[FSogol]

3. You are being played. n/t

[edhopper]

4. I am using

Talking Points Memo.
Josh has been very accurate.
He has Ohio a dead heat.
Obama was ahead by 6 points a few weeks ago.

[OldDem2012]

6. What polls are being used by Josh to reach this rather interesting conclusion?....

Have you not read any of the threads about what's happening with the polls since the switch was made from Registered Voters to Likely Voters?

Can't help you if you're not up to speed on the pollsters claims that women and Latino LVs are split between Obama and Romney. That's just not true, and you should know that just from a common sense perspective.

Think about it.

[magical thyme]

16. and in early voting, Obama is ahead 3 to 1. no link available? nt

[serbbral]

5. Re:Now Ohio in play!

Has Obama lost his 5pt. lead in Ohio? I heard this this morning, but no one showed the new polls for Ohio. If Ohio has not "dipped" from the 5pts., then what is everybody talking about ?

[edhopper]

8. TPM

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/oh-president-12

aggregate polls

[OldDem2012]

15. Oh, good Lord. Please stop making yourself look silly. nt.

[edhopper]

19. What polls

are you looking at.

[OldDem2012]

21. Let's talk about the polls TPM used...

...minimal research on each of these polls will tell you the following:

Credible Polls:
---------------
PPP (D)
NBC/Marist
SurveyUSA (Sponsored by WCMH-TV Columbus )
CNN
Columbus Dispatch
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT
WaPo

Not Credible Polls (sponsored by right-wing groups):
-----------------------------------------------------
Zogby * (Sponsored by Newsmax)
Gravis Marketing
Rasmussen
Pulse Opinion Research (Sponsored by Let Freedom Ring)
Wenzel Strategies (R) (Sponsored by Citizens United)
We Ask America

Unknown Affiliation:
--------------------
American Research Group

So, why didn't Josh do his homework before he included those polls that are considered not to be credible?

Why didn't you do your homework?

[regnaD kciN]

18. From the poll numbers given there...

...it appears the "closeness" is due to a quartet of Gravis-level polls showing Romney ahead, three of the four from more than a week ago.



Obama has a multi-point lead in all the other polls taken together.

[krawhitham]

7. Ohio is not in play if PPP is correct

52 point advantage in early voting
19% have already voted

rMoney need to carry the remaining 81% by 12 points to win Ohio

[Botany]

9. I am in Ohio and right now team Obama is working very hard to put Ohio out of reach

w/ early voting.

If Mitt does win this state it will be because it was dirty.

The Demographics are brutal for Romney. Women, gays, hispanics, the young, the anti SB 5 vote,
students, African Americans, democrats, and independents all are big time against Romney.

[justiceischeap]

10. I'm starting to question a lot of the poll data

and that includes pollsters we usually trust. There are just too many conflicting polls to trust the data at this point, IMO. There are polls today calling PA a swing state now and having lived there most of my life, I don't buy that. There are polls showing the gap between women is closing, I don't buy that. There was even that Gravis poll that had RMoney winning the AA vote in Colorado... I really don't buy that.

[earthside]

11. What is the Obama message right now?

For some reason it seems to me that the Obama campaign has sagged in the last two weeks.

It would seem to me that there should be a consistent, unified attack on Rmoney's flip-flops and inconsistencies. Where are the Obama-Rmoney comparison ads ... or more pointedly, Rmoney-Rmoney comparison ads?

But the campaign itself appears to be still obsessing about the first debate --- and putting all its eggs in tonight's debate performance.

I posted yesterday that in the swing state of Colorado in the swing county in Colorado (where I live), there is less visible Obama campaign presence now at a time when Rmoney is stepping-up his visibility.

And .... for the folks who keep saying that yard signs don't vote --- people who put signs in their yards do vote. Seeing no Obama signs and more and more Rmoney signs conveys a sense of momentum and enthusiasm for the Repuglicans and is quite discouraging to Obama voters --- and that can be enough in a place like Colorado where it could come down to a tenth of a percent to win.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

14. So that means

Colorado Democratic party needs to get others to call and help if it is close.

[leftyohiolib]

12. if people in ohio VOTE potus will win. vote early or you have to stand in a 10 hour line

[magical thyme]

13. which poll are you looking at? because without context you're looking pretty foolish imho.

Most polls, even some of the more rightwing ones, showed the end of the Romney bump and the renewed upswing for President Obama.

[edhopper]

17. TPM

aggregate polls

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/oh-president-12


10/12/2012 -
10/13/2012 PPP (D) Obama 51.0 Romney 46.0
10/07/2012 -
10/11/2012 Zogby *
(Sponsored by Newsmax)
Obama 45.0 Romney 44.0
10/08/2012 -
10/10/2012 Zogby *
(Sponsored by Newsmax)
Obama 45.0 Romney 44.0
10/06/2012 -
10/10/2012 Gravis Marketing Romney 45.9 Obama 45.1
10/10/2012 -
10/10/2012 Rasmussen Obama 48.0 Romney 47.0
10/07/2012 -
10/09/2012 NBC/Marist Obama 51.0 Romney 45.0
10/07/2012 -
10/09/2012 Zogby * Obama 46.0 Romney 42.0
10/05/2012 -
10/08/2012 SurveyUSA
(Sponsored by WCMH-TV Columbus )
Obama 45.0 Romney 44.0
10/08/2012 -
10/08/2012 Pulse Opinion…
(Sponsored by Let Freedom Ring)
Obama 47.0 Romney 46.0
10/05/2012 -
10/08/2012 CNN Obama 51.0 Romney 47.0
10/05/2012 -
10/08/2012 American Research… Romney 48.0 Obama 47.0
10/04/2012 -
10/05/2012 Wenzel Strategies…
(Sponsored by Citizens United)
Romney 48.0 Obama 47.0
10/04/2012 -
10/04/2012 Rasmussen Obama 50.0 Romney 49.0
10/04/2012 -
10/04/2012 We Ask… Romney 47.0 Obama 46.0 Johnson. 1.0
10/01/2012 -
10/01/2012 Pulse Opinion…
(Sponsored by Let Freedom Ring)
Obama 50.0 Romney 43.0
09/30/2012 -
10/01/2012 NBC/Marist Obama 51.0 Romney 43.0
09/27/2012 -
09/30/2012 PPP (D) Obama 49.0 Romney 45.0
09/19/2012 -
09/29/2012 Columbus Dispatch ** Obama 51.0 Romney 42.0
09/18/2012 -
09/24/2012 Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Obama 53.0 Romney 43.0
09/19/2012 -
09/23/2012 WaPo Obama 52.0 Romney 44.0

[magical thyme]

22. I see Obama ahead in every single one of those polls except 4 old RWs:

ARG, We Ask, Gravis and Wenzel (Citizens United). And the dates for those are from 3 days to a week old.

Most of the polls you list have Obama ahead.

[Drab]

20. Ohio is just about out of reach for rMoney

Several polls have been skewered. Just recently it was found that Gallup used a poll from last week to poll numbers yesterday. And unless Obama has a bad night tonight, which I don't think he will. I believe Ohio is sewed up for the Pres.

[Arkana]

23. Ohio's not in play.