More bad Delta variant news

[Shermann]

Let me get this out of the way: regardless of whether the vaccines can stop the spread of Delta or not, they still provide robust protection against severe illness and death.

That said, there is that stubborn issue of stopping Delta. CNN has been looping over the same shallow mask and vaccine debate material for a while now. Gone are the discussions about R-Naught values and pandemic models that we had this time a year ago. We're not going to get any answers from them.

The good news is the local ABC news in Chicago took a deep dive into the subject which I found to be surprisingly good. The bad news is that it is, well, bad news. While I'm not a medical scientist, I do have a science background and this report matches my back-of-the-envelope approximations.

https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-vaccine-efficacy-against-delta-variant-covid-booster-shot-is-pfizer-effective/10949401/

I'd like to think I simply have confirmation bias, but I doubt it.

[JoanofArgh]

1. We need a new vaccine tailored to Delta. I went to Moderna's website and they're

working on one but when it'll be available, who knows?

[PortTack]

8. It may not be that long.,the mRNA technology to create vaccines does not change, only the

Specific protein spikes that are related to the delta variant.

[FakeNoose]

13. Yes but they're a long way from admitting that

[carpetbagger]

2. The numbers seem unduly pessimistic.

I think the equation works out the same in real life, with 60 percentish vaccination (37 in my county). I wouldn't conclude that 100 percent vaccination, masks, basic social distancing, and cancelling mass events wouldn't control delta.

[mucifer]

3. Curious what happened in India with the Delta variant.

[SoCalDavidS]

5. India's #'s Have Been FUBAR From The Beginning

I'd trust them as much as I'd trust the #'s coming out of Floriduh.

[Amishman]

11. I'd trust India's even less

Florida you have a decent reporting apparatus a d modern medical care, so the raw data could/should be reasonably accurate - manipulation happens afterwards.

India has a huge poverty bound underclass, with medical facilities far worse than those available to even the poor here. You also have superstition and ignorance issues that dwarf our Trumper anti-science problem. On top of that bad data, you have a government that is corrupt and wants to suppress information.

[Shermann]

9. A dramatic spike

The same as the UK.

This is another mystery which has yet to be explained to my satisfaction. Why do these surges grow exponentially like the models predict, but then crest and start receding so dramatically? The surges weren't nearly big enough to get to herd immunity, if that is even possible.

[LisaL]

10. UK cases are rising again.

"A hundred more people have died in the UK after testing positive for coronavirus, latest figures from the government have shown, with cases rising by almost 33,000."

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-08-13/uk-records-100-covid-deaths-as-cases-rise-by-almost-33000

[mucifer]

12. That's my question. How did the India numbers dramatically plummet without vaccine?

[Phoenix61]

4. If there is 100% vaccination rate R0 won't stay at 8.

I don’t know what it would be but it’s not that.

[LisaL]

6. We will never have a 100% vaccination rate.

NT

[Chainfire]

7. If the disease caused people to spontaneously explode there would be hold-outs on the vaccine.

The same people that just live with their heads up their butts and vote for Republicans.

[crickets]

14. The article is quite helpful and informative, if depressing. Thanks, Shermann. nt

[Ms. Toad]

15. Too many moving parts -

But if things don't change - pretty darn close.

[Bad Thoughts]

16. So after a bunch of hand wringing, put a mask on

I'm tired of these bullshit, sensationalist articles that repeat facts that have been available for weeks, but present them as something new and worrisome.

Guess what? The vaccines are working better than expected. Their limitations reflect issues related to vaccines in general, not weaknesses of the specific vaccines.

Here's what to do: wear a mask, keep your distance, don't go to big parties, tell your school board to protect children. These things aren't hard. The sky isn't falling.

Remaining vigilant will drive down the transmission rate.

And realize that tomorrow, another Chicken Little article will be published that will have nothing new to say.

[Shermann]

17. Sensationalist? Did you read or watch it?

It was quite informative and told matter-of-factly in the language of science, which is why I posted it. That's the opposite of sensationalism.

[Bad Thoughts]

19. Yes, the focus of the story is on the vaccines not being sufficient

Thus information isn't new, not even just for delta. The epidemiologist were saying in May it was too early to throw the masks away.


To make matters worse, the anchor starts with a bit of misinformation: 70% wax the bare minimum; it is generally believed 90% vaccination rate is necesary

[BannonsLiver]

20. +1

[madville]

18. The simple approach to the mask issue is irritating on the news

It seems to just be a power struggle between state and local governments at this point.

No one actually explains the proper use and benefits of effective masking anymore, it's all just about the politics of it. Probably less than 10% of the mask wearing public is actually doing it according to recommendations the CDC and WHO say are required to make it effective, especially with Delta with it's ability to put far more virus in the air. Using the recommended types of masks (N95/KN95/PM2.5/etc) that are correctly sized and fitted to one's face, disposing of masks at the appropriate interval or washing reusable masks daily, washing/sanitizing hands before and after touching the mask, that masks are not a substitute for social distancing and lose effectiveness the closer you are to other individuals.

But you never see anything informative like that on the news now, it's all just the polarized political aspect.