New CDC studies point to waning immunity from vaccines

[MisterNiceKitty]

By Erin Banco and Adam Cancryn

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-cdc-studies-point-to-waning-immunity-from-vaccines/ar-AANGSj9

"Two new studies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show fully vaccinated Americans’ immunity to Covid-19 is waning as the more-transmissible Delta variant continues to spread across the country.

One study, which focused on frontline health care workers, found that vaccine effectiveness declined by nearly thirty percentage points since the Delta variant became the dominant strain in the U.S. The analysis also concluded that the Covid-19 vaccines were 80 percent effective in preventing infection among the frontline health care workers.

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The second study examined 43,000 Los Angeles residents age 16 and older. It found that 25 percent of new infections from May to July were in fully vaccinated individuals, while 71 percent occurred in unvaccinated people. The study also showed that the hospitalization rate was significantly lower for fully vaccinated people than for unvaccinated people.

The publication of the studies comes a week after the agency released its first three reports on vaccine efficacy, the Delta variant and breakthrough infections. One of those analyses showed that vaccine effectiveness among adults in New York declined from 91.7 percent in early May to 79.8 percent by late July."

I know it's a bit early but does anyone understand that bolded passage?

[LisaL]

1. 80% number is starting in December.

Declined effectiveness is for when Delta became dominant.
This is the link to the study itself.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e4.htm?s_cid=mm7034e4_w

[MisterNiceKitty]

2. ah ok thanks

[LisaL]

5. The reporting has been very confusing.

Bu the bottom line, vaccines are becoming less effective in July/August. Could be a combination of waning immunity from the vaccines and delta being able to more easily break through the vaccines.

[JT45242]

3. loose language around percent change

found that vaccine effectiveness declined by nearly thirty percentage points

% change = (new-old)/old *100
the result of that calculation was -30


They don't give the actual values. So, it does seem plausible.

[MisterNiceKitty]

6. Yeah I think what LisaL says is true

The data items refer to two different time points. It just struck me as conflated and contradictory (not to mention confusing no matter how many times I re-read it)

[ananda]

4. I will get the booster, for sure!

!!!

[Sancho]

15. Here in Florida CVS and Walgreens have been giving boosters. We got them last week.

No questions or MD note required.

[IBEWVET]

22. I am getting ready to try CVS in an hour, N/T

[IBEWVET]

26. This CVS asked, no shot till mid September. N/T

[ananda]

37. I'm not at risk, so I will get mine in October..

after my six months.

[Bad Thoughts]

7. Frontline Healthcare workers?

People who may be working with patients sick from Covid on a regular basis show 80% effectiveness? What's the reason for the alarm?

[Blues Heron]

8. vaccine effectiveness declined by nearly thirty percentage points

Draw your own conclusions, but that seems concerning to me.


One study, which focused on frontline health care workers, found that vaccine effectiveness declined by nearly thirty percentage points since the Delta variant became the dominant strain in the U.S.

[Elessar Zappa]

16. It's concerning but

the vaccinated still have much less of a chance to get severely ill. That said, I’m going in today for my booster.

[MisterNiceKitty]

9. From the article

"In speeches, Biden has repeatedly emphasized that Covid-19 is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated," going as far in late July to assert that "over 99 percent of Covid-19 deaths had been among the unvaccinated."

Yet as reports of breakthrough mounted and scrutiny intensified, health officials have clamored for the more recent data on the proportion of serious infections found in vaccinated Americans."

[Demsrule86]

10. first of all, I am not sure this is true. My niece has an immune disease and my sis wanted to

make sure the shot is working. The doctor did the test but told my sister that until and unless the niece was exposed to Covid, no one could say for sure what the antibody situation was. Now my nephew brought home Covid from school...no masks. and everyone was exposed...including the niece. They all tested negative. This was the delta variant. So I think as contagious as this was, my niece would have gotten it if she truly had no antibodies. My sister couldn't have her tested again as the Georgia hospital situation is dire and must be used for those infected with Covid. I should add that everyone in the house has been vaccinated except the child's mother who was away when he got it.

[MisterNiceKitty]

11. I would count myself fortunate, Demsrule86

[Demsrule86]

47. I am very grateful...that all my family appears to have survived this...the Georgia Governor is

an idiot!

[Tomconroy]

13. If a vaccine is 80 percent effective against Covid that means

80 percent of those exposed won't get covid but it also means 20 percent will get Covid. Which is a lot. Is the vaccine waning or is it that with delta spreading so much that many more people are being exposed?
I have no idea.

[SheltieLover]

14. Look into research done in Israel

[Elessar Zappa]

17. Israel's data shows many breakthrough

infections but the fact remains that something like 95% of those hospitalized and on ventilators or in cemeteries in this country are unvaccinated.

[SheltieLover]

18. Pls read research

That's changing. That's why Israelis are already administering 3rd shots of Pfizer.

[Elessar Zappa]

19. I'm talking about what hospitals are reporting in this country.

I’ve read Israel’s data.

[Tomconroy]

30. I'll take the booster but I'm not going to go crazy

To get it like last spring.

[Calculating]

20. Yes, but those who get it will have greatly reduced symptomes

Very VERY few vaccinated people get seriously ill or die.

[BumRushDaShow]

25. I have a feeling that the ones who are succumbing

who were vaccinated, are the very ones right at the front of the line (and who are currently approved) to get the boosters - the moderate to severely immuno-compromised, who still got the shots, but didn't have a hoped-for robust immune response to the vaccines - which was suspected, but is now being confirmed.

[BumRushDaShow]

23. The original initial Pfizer efficacy was found to be 95% (against the variants at the time)

during their controlled trials in 2020 - https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

which was confirmed by the CDC ACIP analysis - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/recs/grade/covid-19-pfizer-biontech-vaccine.html

Since then, "real world" efficacy was found to be ~91% with some later variants, which upon the appearance of Delta (and I assume the months that passed since the earlier vaccinations), has declined to 66% - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e4.htm?s_cid=mm7034e4_w

Have to keep in mind that few if any vaccines are "100% effective". In fact, you are lucky if the annual flu vaccine hits the 60% effectiveness mark.

[LisaL]

27. No, that's not what 80% efficacy means.

NT

[Tomconroy]

31. OK. What does it mean?

[LisaL]

32. Here:

"So, for example, let’s imagine a vaccine with a proven efficacy of 80%. This means that – out of the people in the clinical trial – those who received the vaccine were at a 80% lower risk of developing disease than the group who received the placebo. This is calculated by comparing the number of cases of disease in the vaccinated group versus the placebo group. An efficacy of 80% does not mean that 20% of the vaccinated group will become ill. "
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/vaccine-efficacy-effectiveness-and-protection

[Tomconroy]

34. Of course it doesn't mean that. A whole bunch of vaccinated people

Last edited Thu Aug 26, 2021, 03:29 PM - Edit history (1)

Will never be exposed. So they will never get it.
I'm a ten year old about science. What in simple sentences does 80 percent efficacy mean.

[Bonn1997]

38. It means this...

You have 100 vaccinated and 100 unvaccinated people all exposed. Let’s say 10 of the 100 unvaccinated people develop Covid. If the vaccine is 80% effective, we would expect 2 of the 100 vaccinated people to develop Covid. The inference is that 8 out of 10 expected infections were prevented by the vaccine. Note that it does not mean 20% of the exposed get Covid. In this example, 2% of the vaccinated exposed got it and 10% of the unvaccinated exposed got it. (These are just fictional numbers to demonstrate one way of arriving at 80% effectiveness.)

[Tomconroy]

40. Now I understand. Many exposed people don't get it is what you are saying I think.

[Bonn1997]

54. Well, at least some exposed don't get it. I made up the numbers.

[Ms. Toad]

50. Not quite.

Effectiveness is measured in comparison to unvaccinated cases (not as an absolute).

So given equal exposure, for every 100 cases in the unvaccinated cohort, there will be 20 cases in the vaccinated cohort.

If 20% holds, it is both the greater transmission efficiency of COVID (80% is pretty much what I get when I run the numbers separately).

For normal COVID, the effectiveness was 95% (meaning 5% as many cases as in the unvaccinated population). The early studies showed Pfizer about 88% efficiency against Delta. Delta is about 60% more infectious.

So 100 cases of COVID (original version) turn into 160 cases (delta version). 12%% of 160 cases is 19.2% (pretty close to 20%)

[Corgigal]

21. All vaccines antibodies wane.

Now check the B cell memory cells. That is where we store what we have been exposed too.

Thank virology of TWIV.

[LisaL]

28. The article is talking about actual immunity waning.

It doesn't matter if you have B memory cells.
The immunity is going down with time.

[Demsrule86]

49. That is what my sister's doctor told her about my niece who has an immune disease.

[Ohio Joe]

24. OK... I'm not a scientist but... Is this not to be expected?

I mean... We are talking about a variant of the virus the shot was made for... No? Is it not expected that new vaccines will need to be made as covid-19 mutates?

I don't know... It's how I thought it worked.

[LisaL]

29. It mutates much faster than we can come up with new vaccines.

NT

[Tomconroy]

33. You know. I think I'm going to start posting this regularly.

I will take some reasonable precautions but I am not going to hide in my house. It is what it is. You get it, you get it. You don't, you don't.

[phylny]

35. Good for you!

As for me, I have a month-old granddaughter and I'll be responsible for part of her childcare. If I get it, SHE might get it.

[Tomconroy]

39. The CDC isn't telling people not to go to ball games, not to go

Outdoors, not to go to the Minnesota Fair, not to dine out or in, not to go to Obama's birthday party or an outdoor rock concert.
They tell us to use reasonable precautions where appropriate. I'm good with your never going outside your house if that's what
you want. I am tired of every time someone wants to enjoy themselves others start claiming it's the end of the world.

[uponit7771]

42. Most VAX data STILL shows 95% effective against hospitalizations and death even with Delta and

... I've not seen a majority of articles stating less.

You might still get CV-Delta but low chances you'll die or be hospitalized from it if vaxed

[phylny]

43. And what of my one-month-old granddaughter?

What does the VAX data say about her safety?

Goodness gracious.

[uponit7771]

45. Data still shows low death rates among children under 12 from CV infection and it shows people at

... risk need to take appropriate precautions.

I think you know both of those pieces of information though right?

[phylny]

48. Sure, what's another death or two amongst children? It's low, it's not non-existent.

Of course I know, but the more people act cavalierly, the more the young are vulnerable.

[uponit7771]

51. You feel the same with driving right? Seeing there are higher chances of a kid getting killed ...

... driving than dying or getting very sick with CV Delta.

I'm sick of this shit, we should be the smarter side and innumeracy kills

https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/teen_drivers/teendrivers_factsheet.html#:~:text=The%20risk%20of%20motor%20vehicle,be%20in%20a%20fatal%20crash.

The risk of motor vehicle crashes is higher among teens aged 16–19 than among any other age group. In fact, per mile driven, teen drivers in this age group are nearly three times as likely as drivers aged 20 or older to be in a fatal crash.2

[phylny]

52. I'm going to guess that our granddaughter

won’t be driving for 16 years or so.

Sorry you’re sick of this shit.

[uponit7771]

53. Yes, ... I am. ... shit

[Tomconroy]

46. No one is saying you should take your grandaugter to an outdoor rock concert.

I am sure you will take appropriate precautions to ensure the safety of a one month old unvaccinated baby. And if you want to absolutely ensure against infection don't go out.
But if everyone did that the economy would tank and we'd be on the verge of a great recession or depression. Not to mention the destruction of the performing arts, the enormous damage to the social lives of young people. The list goes on. Never going out has a cost.

[phylny]

44. The CDC is, unfortunately, not current enough.

Case in point: The two counties near me (I live in one, the other is adjacent) have had over 200 cases of Covid over the past week. That's reported cases. It is a small, rural setting. Fewer than 45% are fully vaccinated.

Where did I say it was the end of the world? Although honestly, it's the end of life for some people.

Go, enjoy yourself, knock yourself out, but remember that your vaccinated self can still spread the virus to those who cannot be vaccinated.

[uponit7771]

41. yep

[ecstatic]

36. Another study seems to be suggesting that variants can evade the antibodies

created naturally or through the vaccine, so getting a booster dose isn't necessarily the answer.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34425281/

[cadoman]

55. also where does Corminaty fit in with this?

Does Corminaty have small adjustments? I am confused at where the line is between Corminaty and the current EUA version.