How do I say this? I am less than fully confident about the VA gubernatorial race.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I knew we had the CA Recall in the bag, I don't have the same feeling about the VA gubernatorial race.

[BlueTsunami2018]

1. New Jersey too.

I’m quite worried about both. It’s a bad sign that these are even close.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. We have a much bigger polling cushion in New Jersey.

[BlueTsunami2018]

6. Yeah?

I was looking at polls today and it’s within the margin of error with the jackass Тяцмрsтег gaining. Murphy was up big a month ago.

[rogue emissary]

2. I think the media is doing everything they can to say it's close.

The stats for early voting look good and McAuliffe is hitting the same poll numbers as Northam.

I'm more worried about state house and senate seats. The red areas are getting redder and the truly toss-up areas are shrinking.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I hope you're right. T-Mac started with a huge lead

[Amishman]

5. I'm one reputable poll away from panicking about VA

The numbers with independents in particular have me really alarmed.

[hlthe2b]

7. I am very worried. If I am badly wrong then I will welcome the ridicule, but for this to be so close

is unnerving as hell.

[Scrivener7]

8. These days, every election makes me nervous. PTSD from 2016.

[honest.abe]

9. I live in the DC metro area and have spent quite a bit of time in VA recently.

I don’t feel confident either. Younkin has run a ‘smart’ campaign and has ads everywhere. Also it seems Dem voters are not as engaged as they need to be. I think they don’t see the crisis nature of this election like the California recall. I’m hoping something can turn the momentum.

[Amishman]

13. I used to live down there and have friends in the area

The impression I get from the few I still talk to, is that Youngkin has used social issues around schools as a wedge to break off a significant chunk of independents who are less liberal on social issues.

It also doesn't help that inflation concerns are ramping up, making the prospect of a large infrastructure spending bill less favorable than it would normally be. I really think we need to communicate better about how Build Back Better is not funded by 'printing money' and will not exacerbate the current inflation issues.

[mcar]

10. Voters who have voted prefer McAuliffe by 24 points

Link to tweet

?s=20

im chuckling bc raise yr hand if you never heard this recent fact abt Va Gov race.

via CBS News poll: "Voters who have already voted prefer McAuliffe by 24 points"

[honest.abe]

11. Wow!

That is much bigger than I had expected given all the recent polling. Sounds like Dem voters got the message they need to show up.

[PortTack]

15. It has not been pointed out enough that the latest poll showing them in a tie is from trafalgor!

Total RWNJ group!!

[Celerity]

21. +1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. It first publicly released polls in 2016. The company has tended to produce polls that show more support for Trump than other pollsters do. Since successfully predicting the result of the 2016 presidential election, its polling has been less accurate.

The company says it utilizes methods to increase the weighting of so-called "shy, pro-Trump" voters which they argue to be underrepresented in most polls. The company does not disclose its methods.

Robert Cahaly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Cahaly

Cahaly has worked on campaigns for various Republicans, including governors Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump.

On November 3, 2010, Cahaly was arrested by the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED) and charged with making illegal robocalls. Cahaly denied any wrongdoing, stating "It is sad and disappointing that in this charged election cycle full of last minute surprise attacks that Democrat Incumbents and power brokers are leveraging all of their influence to create a last minute salacious headline. We are apparently today's target." The charges were subsequently dismissed in October 2012. After the charges were dropped, Cahaly filed suit against SLED officials, claiming his constitutional right to free speech had been violated. The subsequent decision of Cahaly v. LaRosa found the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional, which defended the right of Cahaly to make robocalls.

[Amishman]

12. given that early vs election day voting has even turned into a partizan issue

this fails to calm me.

[Polybius]

20. The keys words are "Voters who have voted"

Republicans don't like early voting, so this is no surprise.

[brooklynite]

14. As I said a month ago...

"People will panic about the VA-GOV race for the next month. Then McAuliffe will win".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I hope you're right

[Carlitos Brigante]

23. Come again? nt

[Bettie]

16. Here is a thing to remember

there are a greater number of Republicans who are eager to vote, per the polls.

However, what percentage of the electorate are Republicans?

What percentage are Democrats?

I think we'll win.

Also: polling relies on people who still answer their phones when they don't know who is on the other end.

[AJT]

17. If this is where we are in this country after everything that has

happened over the past 5 years with the crazy GOP, then we are doomed. Even if they both win, the fact that it is even close says it all.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

19. We need to keep up on GOTV efforts

[BlackSkimmer]

22. I'm not feeling great about it either, especially after watching Rachel last night.

I hope we win because I don’t care for the implications if we don’t.