General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIn the coming second American Civil War,
which side are you on?
Sure, it's unlikely. You may think it's impossible. But that's always what people think, until it's too late
By CHAUNCEY DEVEGA
PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 4, 2021 6:00AM (EDT)
A man hold his hand to his heart as a Proud Boys organizer recites the Pledge of Allegiance during a Proud Boys rally at Delta Park in Portland, Oregon on September 26, 2020. (MARANIE R. STAAB/AFP via Getty Images)
A man hold his hand to his heart as a Proud Boys organizer recites the Pledge of Allegiance during a Proud Boys rally at Delta Park in Portland, Oregon on
If there is a second American Civil War, which side would you choose? It may be wise to make that decision now, in the spirit of planning for the worst while hoping for the best.
A recent public opinion poll by the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that a majority of Trump voters want to secede from the Union. Alarmingly, nearly as many Biden voters, 41 percent, also feel it may be "time to split the country." This is part of a larger pattern; other polls and research have come to similar conclusions.
It's important to resist false equivalence and superficial analysis here. It may be true that a large percentage of both Democrats and Republicans are willing to consider seceding from the United States, but their reasons and motivations are very different.
Today's Republican Party has, in practice, largely surrendered to neofascism and white supremacy currents that were not far below its surface for many years. It has embraced and condoned the violence of the Jan. 6 insurrection, and has come very close to directly endorsing terrorism against its perceived political enemies.
For Republicans, America's multiracial democracy is anathema to their values and must be destroyed. Public opinion research has shown that tens of millions of white Republicans, especially Trump supporters, view Joe Biden as an illegitimate president who should be removed from power by whatever means necessary.
more at www.salon.com
bluecollar2
(3,622 posts)Has begun.
former9thward
(32,259 posts)bluecollar2
(3,622 posts)My use of the term "Balkanisation" is somehow a xenophobic slur.
Did you find it offensive?
former9thward
(32,259 posts)bluecollar2
(3,622 posts)I was quite taken aback by the comment.
milestogo
(16,829 posts)Try to think of a non-xenophobic insult.
bluecollar2
(3,622 posts)A couple of points:..
1) you don't know me so your inference that I am a xenophobe is personally insulting.
2) the tone of your message is condescending and infers that I need to go back and rethink my observation.
Frankly, I understand the term and the implications better than you may know. It's precisely because of that understanding that I specificslly chose to use the term.
I have no intention of revising my post. If you believe it to be xenophobic feel free to alert the moderators.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,149 posts)I could not find any reference on line objecting to the use of the term as a xenophobic slur.
I think you are making it up as a slur.
bluecollar2
(3,622 posts)I appreciate your perspective.
marie999
(3,334 posts)None of our states are homogeneous. But I doubt the U.S. will separate into two countries. There is too much interaction between the states.
Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)Deep State Witch
(10,507 posts)It's their long-term plan.
Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)It must have been like taking candy from a baby for Putin.
To ruin American, its people and democracy.
Of course the GOP is working hand in hand with Putin.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)He's famous for exporting and development of corruption for the purpose of destroying the governments of other nations, and as usual the vulnerability was in strong/very strong conservatives in government, building on their own propensities for corruption and anti-democratic ideology.
Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)Ancient Roman military strategy.
Yes it was fairly easy for Putin to pull this off due to the corruption, greed, racism, white supremacy, ignorance prevalent in the US.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)just how successful they were so quickly.
But let's spot our own domestic enemies some credit. There really is a vast RW conspiracy. RW power blocs have been plotting for decades to bring it about; and cooperating and overlapping or not, I kind of assume plotting for their own to be on top in the end. I doubt Charles Koch ever intended to need permission from tRump or a council of bishops to open a factory.
Otoh, of course we also doubt Putin plans for America to continue as a superpower.
Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)Putin tapped into the GOP desire for unlimited power and wealth.
While Putin's goal is the US losing superpower status.
Russia and China now have the best relationship they have had in many decades.
They want an alliance against the US. China is determined to gain superpower status.
I don't think the GOP cares anymore about US global dominance as a superpower.
As long as the wealthy elite can maintain most of the US wealth, they don't really care about anything else.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)to get the oil, beef up our domination in the ME, and "finish" the first gulf war by smashing Iraq?
Right now the trumpist types are feeling sorta isolationist because trump hasn't been blowing the war trumpet. But most of them are frequently huge warmongers, and most of the rest support it as needed.
Btw, and this helps explain so much about them, it's the nature of strong conservatives to know enemies will detroy them if not destroyed first. And they always have enemies. (Unfortunately, instead of Russia or Iran, we're currently #1.)
And it's also their nature to believe only forcing enemies to total surrrender will save us from destruction. 41 let them down terribly by not invading Iraq (and they didn't reelect him) but 44, one of them, returned to invade, occupy, and kill Hussein and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis (and salvage his father's honor).
This is why so many respond with outrage to diplomatic solutions, limited engagements, smart war, etc. It's not just partisan opposition -- typical strong conservatives are typically appalled. Trumpist types opposed all the nuclear test ban and step-down treaties! And, btw, they've always known we will need to use our nuclear arsenal to protect ourselves, nice people placidly accepting the need to murder millions as a certainty.
And very hard-core conservatives like these and worse currently threaten to take over. Situations and reactions change, but personality traits remain the same, including in very educated and experienced strong conservatives at the top of government and business. We've all been amazed at what mean, inadequate little creeps so many are.
China and Russia are of course also ancient enemies, and both are headed by conservative governments. Of course they are allied, somewhat, against us now...
Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)They seem to be quite prevalent in the GOP.
Yes this is the party of all out war to win, whether at home or abroad.
Torture, murder, civilian casualties, invasion, etc.
Yes there is a new Sino-Soviet Alliance for the purpose of lessening the power of the US.
Russian and China hope to emerge as global powers.
And they will do so without firing a shot or spending much money.
And yes I think we are all amazed and shocked by the pathology of the GOP, how mean, immature, self-centered creeps they are.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)flocking to government too??
Beyond unbelievable times.
Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)In recent times the number of sociopaths and narcissistic personality disorders in public office has markedly increased.
It is unbelievable.
roamer65
(36,749 posts)Within months almost all fiat currencies would be near worthless.
The Russians and Chinese are delusional if they think otherwise.
Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)The apparent plan:
As a greatly disrupted and nonfunctional US loses superpower status, China gains power and prestige.
roamer65
(36,749 posts)They have created too many RMB to do it.
There would have to be a new, worldwide unit of account created like the Bancor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)These contracts were priced in yuan, but convertible to gold.
The rise of the petroyuan could be the death blow for the dollar.
Anyone who has seen first hand the astounding progress it has made in the past two decades, should not be surprised at what it does in the next 20 years.
roamer65
(36,749 posts)Irish_Dem
(48,938 posts)But they are working on it, step by step.
China is 100% determined to be a global superpower.
And they will do whatever it takes to achieve that goal.
dem4decades
(11,337 posts)We'll keep our tax money and the Red States of America can shit in their red hats.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Blues Heron
(5,975 posts)It ain't happening
BlackSkimmer
(51,308 posts)Whoa.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Seem like that is exactly what is happening. I stay and fight if there is a fight. If there is no fight I'll leave. I won't live under republican theocratic authoritarianism under any circumstances.
Blaukraut
(5,701 posts)Those who are against a breakup have no alternative solution to offer to autocratic republican rule. The knuckling under and financial exploitation of blue states. What would they have us do instead of peacefully 'divorcing'?
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)dwindling farm land and fresh water, bad governance, flight of business out, more devastation from unadequately controlled diseases, failure to reestablish stable government and reasonable prosperity. Criminal cartels move in, terrorist and militia groups roam and take, former fellow citizens were migrating north until the doors were slammed shut and military posted along the border in response to anti-immigration riots.
How you doing up there on your side? Needless to say, drugs are flooding in and criminal and paramilitary raids are frequent, but the kind of commerce that once made everyone more prosperous isn't.
Polybius
(15,587 posts)No need for war.
dem4decades
(11,337 posts)RicROC
(1,206 posts)upstate and western New York State would join the red state confederation.
intheflow
(28,537 posts)Especially in rural and suburban communities, which run overwhelmingly white and "Townie".
Blaukraut
(5,701 posts)They're free to depart for 'greener' pastures.
Tommy Carcetti
(43,241 posts)Or hell, within certain pockets downstate.
Straw Man
(6,633 posts)This isn't like the 19th century Civil War, when two clearly defined regions had opposing interests. There's no "North vs. South" in this one; you'd have to arbitrarily partition the country and then let people decide which one they wanted to live in. That worked out really well for India and Pakistan in 1947, he said sarcastically.
Tree Lady
(11,571 posts)All the states work closely together we have for years with fires, etc.
Blues Heron
(5,975 posts)This will be over before it begins. FBI has informants throughout the supremacist movement - the minute their fort sumter was planned they would find themselves staring at the inside of a cinderblock cell wondering who squealed. This is just a MAGAT wank fantasy.
There will be no American Civil War 2.0
Jedi Guy
(3,293 posts)There will be no organized armies clashing in the field. But terror tactics and insurgent movements across the country? That wouldn't surprise me a bit. FBI won't catch them all.
Blues Heron
(5,975 posts)former9thward
(32,259 posts)The Weathermen blew up buildings in the late 60s and early 70s and were on the FBI 10 most wanted list. They were a national group and they were never caught. They finally surfaced attar about 10 years when the government had given up and moved on. No real penalties.
Blues Heron
(5,975 posts)Plus Theyll probably post selfies on Instagram like the Insurrectionist morons did.
former9thward
(32,259 posts)As a criminal defense attorney I know the #1 reason people are caught by the police is they tell on themselves. And with the younger generation it is by social media pictures.
Straw Man
(6,633 posts)... for the Weathermen? Kathy Boudin served 22 years, Judith Clark 37 years, and David Gilbert 38 years, all for the Brink's robbery. Mark Rudd, Bernardine Dohrn, and Bill Ayers did get slaps on the wrist for the plot to bomb the office of a California state senator, but that was a plot that never came to fruition. Others in that plot got sentences of up to three years.
former9thward
(32,259 posts)The Weather group began to surface (including Gilbert) in 1976 and 1977. Gilbert and the others went back underground to form the May 19th Communist Organization which was a white support group for the Black Liberation Army. That is when the Brink's robbery took place. Weather had nothing to do with it.
You mention one small incident with an office. The Weather group planted bombs which went off in the Capitol building, Pentagon and many other buildings across the U.S. They were suspected in the killing of a San Francisco policeman and some of the people you mentioned were still being questioned about it as recently as ten years ago. None of the Weather leadership served any real time.
Straw Man
(6,633 posts)Point taken.
Kaleva
(36,483 posts)And look at how little support those rioters got from other Magahats since then.
samplegirl
(11,555 posts)It makes things more exciting to think so. Everyone is entertained by what ifs.
Chille
(193 posts)won't be with guns. I will be done through monetary policies, my guess.
samplegirl
(11,555 posts)and its already started.
Chille
(193 posts)as it sounds
The Jungle 1
(4,552 posts)Fox news is the main lie machine in this plan. They are demanding their bucket of loons hate fellow Americans.
It these stupid people hate Democracy so much then how about they just remove themselves from the evil of our Democracy.
Stop collecting SS and using Medicare. Take your kids out of our schools and stay off our roads. Don't flush your crapper and turn off our water.
Majority rule. If you don't like it then get out of my country.
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)Our first civil war was the American Revolution in which many of our ancestors fought against each other. The Second is the war of 2861-1865. So this would be the Third if you want to call it that, however a case can also be made that we have never really been a society that is not in some way at war with itself, sometimes violently, most times less so.
Bucky
(54,162 posts)You don't get to rename wars based on your personal whims.
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)Thank You Very Much.
John Ludi
(589 posts)physical territories...except maybe urban versus rural...but there are still a great many exceptions to that. Plus, guns are not JUST in the hands of the far right and the lack of coherent organizational skills and forethought evinced by the people on the far right is a huge stumbling block.
I think what is more likely to play out is that things continue to unravel on all levels until a tipping point where the entire system becomes dysfunctional...and then all bets are off across the board. That process is underway right now, and it would only be greatly accelerated if the Repugs get back in power. The Dems are basically trying to plug holes in the dike as fast as the Repugs can create them, attempting to return to a business-as-usual scenario as best they can, just to keep the whole thing from imploding...but the ability to act in unison is stymied by people like Manchin and Sinema, as well as those who propose even more radical solutions to the world's issues that, while laudable, are contrary to The Big Machine that keeps food on the shelves and water coming out of the taps.
That's not to say that there won't be increasing violence...I think THAT much is baked in the cake, and lots of it...but for it to be an actual civil war? It's just MY opinion (and I'm just some random guy posting in a forum), but I doubt it.
Dave says
(4,649 posts)John Ludi
(589 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Just imagining national or large regional breakouts of violence, etc., which I believe is very unlikely, though:
You make a huge point about interruption of food and water. Also power. And communications. With notions of people fighting in the streets, those would tend to happen at different points in different places to different degrees -- both intentionally and unintentionally. But where occurring, it seems likely the very interruptions they caused would act as brakes on civil hostilities by forcing people almost immediately to tend to very basic needs.
Plus whoever controlled governments, federal, state, municipalities would impose control, closing roads, controlling communications, imposing and enforcing curfews, likely not caring who was on which side, and deliberately turning off power and water to force whole neighborhoods, counties, areas of states into compliance.
This isn't 1776 or 1861. Lack of water alone would bring people to their knees very quickly.
John Ludi
(589 posts)it just kind of depends on who ends up having their hands on the taps.
I spent most of my life in Detroit, Chicago and Minneapolis, but have lived the past ten years in rural Wisconsin...and the difference between the two is pretty huge in terms of levels of control and who has them. The ironic thing for my own situation is that I came out here thinking that I'd be in better shape if things finally went awry than I would in the city...it didn't take long long to realize that I may have been incorrect in that assessment.
Out here where there are tons of organic farms I used to think that we could feed ourselves quite nicely if the lights went out. Nope. They are all tied into the grid as much as any urbanite buying their Trader Joe's enchiladas and Starbucks lattes. And beyond the physical infrastructure, there is the question of the intellectual infrastructure (out here in the bubble where facts go to die). So those brakes would probably be applied better in the cities than out here where the food ultimately comes from.
That's the nightmare for me; the far right (and well, the right in general) have a pretty simple and linear grasp on the potential consequences of their individual and collective behavior. Things would play out badly for everyone, exponentially. Fortunately, as you mentioned, those in charge who have not totally lost their grip on sanity could bring a certain amount of them to heel pretty quickly...but that's probably a question of location.
Wait and see, I guess.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)revolution, and for that reason alone insurrectionist authorities might encourage it, as well as DVE groups. Our own county is very red, already Republican territory, so hopefully those in charge would attempt to maintain order.
As for potential consequences, simple, linear grasp might be overstating it. Someone some months ago told me he could always feed his family by hunting and pointed to the southern Appalachian wilderness for a backup food supply. He seemed to be imagining himself stalking through silent woods like Daniel Day Lewis.
I told him about the millions of hunters that would be pouring into them from all surrounding states and cities as soon as food was cleaned out closer to home. They'd also of course be ravaging agricultural crops. Exponentially.
Worst cases of course, dystopian novel territory. But for any level of disorder from any cause, I have a very low expectations these days for the competence or integrity of conservative governments.
Doughnut time.
OnDoutside
(19,993 posts)doc03
(35,521 posts)surrounded by MAGAts.
Ishoutandscream2
(6,666 posts)Working desperately to get my wife to agree moving out of state.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)The territory would already be theirs. You'd likely be sitting at home unable to go anywhere because roads were closed, orders in place for everyone to stay home, watching coverage of problems elsewhere, maybe fires and fighting in parts of a city near you.
All dystopian novel territory, of course. I don't expect anything like this.
GemDigger
(4,305 posts)It will be neighbor against neighbor, brother against brother and in my case, I already reminded my cousin (trumper) that I am a faster and better shot than he is.
Ishoutandscream2
(6,666 posts)Not necessarily territorial.
imavoter
(646 posts)when a gun store owner was shocked that I was a Democrat.
I said, "Why would I only want Republicans to own guns?"
hunter
(38,384 posts)Should've been done a long time ago.
When World War II ended there was zero tolerance of Nazi ideology.
Sure, there were still plenty of Nazis around but they shut the fuck up.
BlackSkimmer
(51,308 posts)So Im not sure about your mopping up term.
Many, if not most, of these loons seem to be in PA, OH, OR, western NY, MI, MN.
FakeNoose
(33,061 posts)We don't live in an either-or world. Things aren't black-or-white.
I won't be manipulated into deciding whether I'm coming or going.
Just sayin'
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)American Interregnum
(78 posts)Especially considering the fact that so many right-wingers have been jonesing for it since the mid-90s!
jmowreader
(50,630 posts)The few right wingers who want secession, bloodshed, etc., are outnumbered by those of us who dont. And most of them who do, dont have the courage to follow through.
Kaleva
(36,483 posts)TFG got 75% of his vote in MI from those who live in counties identified as mostly urban.
maxsolomon
(33,516 posts)We have a fairly clear divide in America - Urban Liberals & Minorities versus Suburban/Exurban/Rural White Conservatives.
The animus, fear and distrust of country towards city is as old as America.
Bucky
(54,162 posts)Historically they've proven themselves quite adept at lining up and following the leader
Kaleva
(36,483 posts)A civil war implies death, imprisonment or serious harassment. DU could be hacked by those who wish us ill, we being commies and antifa after all, and our real identities and locations made known. Some DUers may find their tires slashed or their homes firebombed. Others may be gunned down in the street.
But since I don't think there's much of a chance, I post here without worry.
Tommymac
(7,263 posts)The US will be the Big Military that protects the 1% in this scenario. And serves to keep all the little regional Wars that will happen rolling along, because Arms Sales.
In 25 to 50 years I do see the real possibility of the US becoming more or less 'balkanized' at some point, probably more due to the effects of severe Climate Change and not so much a prime result of political strife.
But not in an active Civil War...it will just 'drift apart' along obvious political/societal fault lines, with terrorist attacks, some riots and violence, lots of shortages and pain and suffering, but overall if compared to the French Revolution or the American Civil War, it will not be a bloody throwdown.
Stuart G
(38,480 posts)Yes there will be protests of every kind, some will be violent, but in my opinion, NO CIVIL WAR.
LiberalFighter
(51,678 posts)Suggesting two separate countries won't work.
More drastic actions may be necessary. Hope clamping down hard on the racists and wackos will do the job though.
XRubicon
(2,213 posts)The shitbird failed to start anything when he was in power, it ain't happening now with Biden running the show. The military won't back this shit anyway, they like getting paid on a regular basis.
Unless there is a total, I mean total economic collapse, nothing will happen. Then maybe something could happen. The people who are rooting for this will be shocked at how their lives wind up, spoiler alert - they won't be happy.
discntnt_irny_srcsm
(18,494 posts)I'm guessing that none of them know that Francis Bellamy was a Christian Socialist.
imavoter
(646 posts)is a former slave traders apology.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)There could possibly be scattered small outbreaks of violence, but that's not civil war.
HOWEVER, we are facing a real threat of a far-right takeover and establishment of an authoritarian government, best guess masquerading as a faux democracy. Though if tRump was at its head, who knows?
In any case, that could set the stage for civil war, sooner OR later, in response to states seceding.
They might not all be blue states.
bluecollar2
(3,622 posts)Of "The Troubles"
The violence will be extreme, carried out by multiple factions with innocents caught in the middle.
I grew up in the UK during the height of the violence that was taking place in Ulster.
In the end, it took Catholic and Protestant women and mothers to effectively put an end to it all.
I'm afraid we will have to rely on American women, once again, to drag White men into modern reality.
Just my $.02
misanthrope
(7,446 posts)I have published too much opinion that circles me as an "other" in this ruby-red corner of the Deep South. I am agnostic and embrace rational skepticism, critical thought and the scientific process over religion.
I am liberal (especially for this place).
I can't stand the Lost Cause and what it has wrought. I am deeply suspicious of Southern culture and have publicly pointed out bigotry and white supremacy. I am involved in efforts to reveal and bridge the racial chasms here.
I am a heretic when it comes to local myths about the culture and history.
I am disabled and live on the social welfare system. Lack of access to medical treatment and pharmaceuticals would be disastrous for me.
I wouldn't stand a chance of surviving a civil war. If I didn't die by violence, I would die from medical reasons.
WarGamer
(12,591 posts)Look... we can go the way of Yugoslavia or Czechoslovakia.
One didn't go so well and the other was nicknamed the "Velvet Divorce".
There's ZERO chance of the US going Yugoslavia.
Ask the Czech and the Slovaks how their divorce went.
You have 2 countries that are happy to be independent. They're friendly neighbors and all is good...