Some science from a real virologist on Omicron variant

[DenaliDemocrat]

Last edited Fri Nov 26, 2021, 03:56 PM - Edit history (1)

Too much disinformation right now . This is an article from a scientist who played a role in developing our vaccines (but it does emphasize how important getting that vaccine is)!


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1464222680731820043.html

And please note the comment from Sarah Gilbert, an Oxford scientist who I have quoted before and was called a liar for it.

[JohnSJ]

1. Her comment saying that their is no plausible scenario that will take us back to square one in one

breath, followed by we don’t know enough about this new virus to make any conclusions, are puzzling

It depends on a lot of factors, including:

1. Are the current vaccines effective against this variant
2. How transmissible it is
3. How lethal it is
Etc.

It will take at least a couple of weeks before that can be determined

[dem4decades]

2. Also will the pill work to reduce the viruses' effects and is the medication available.

Lots to unfold here

[JohnSJ]

10. Exactly. We just need to know what we are dealing with

[LiberalArkie]

18. Merck's COVID-19 pill shows significantly lower efficacy in updated data (50% - 30%)

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/merck-says-covid-19-pill-cuts-hospitalization-death-risk-by-30-2021-11-26/?fbclid=IwAR1ngAcG_g108pDyGWpptSpznRQaFkEgSsXMBNk3A7YsPeYQfxJwQMknfcc

[DenaliDemocrat]

3. Sarah Gilbert's comment is

That due to the specificity of the RBD, any mutations that rendered the vaccines useless would result in a virus incapable of infecting the cells - thus 100% evasion will never happen.

[Dorian Gray]

61. We won't go back to square one

for a lot of reasons. Mostly because there is surveillance infrastructure out there that didn't exist at first. Also because vaccines are primed to be updated much quicker now than they were at first. And theurepuetics will be released in early 2022 that will most likely be effective.

Square one... a world that feels like it was ending in March 2020... won't happen. She's right about that.

[TheBlackAdder]

4. Delta Nu -- Where have I heard that before?

.







.

[PSPS]

5. We already have some facts about this

1. There is a new variant with many mutations on the loose
2. This new variant is more transmissible
3. This new variant is being found in an increasing number of countries
4. Existing vaccines may or may not prevent infection, same as Delta
5. The best we can hope for at this time is that existing vaccines will minimize severity of an infection, same as Delta
6. An infection, even with little/no need for hospitalization to recover, can still subject the patient to long-haul effects, same as Delta
7. People should continue masking and social distancing regardless of local proclamations of "all clear"

The fact is that, with the worldwide MAGA and libertarian movements still dominating the discourse, this cycle will continue indefinitely. Only 60% of the US population is fully vaccinated and this cycle will continue until the vaccination rate is at least 90%, like measles (Covid is more contagious than measles.).

[uponit7771]

8. Vaccines were never meant to prevent infection, vaccines weren't immunity

[JohnSJ]

11. Vaccines are meant to prevent those who are vaccinated from getting infected. What do you think

the vaccines for small pox and polio did as an example

They allow your body to obtain immunity to prevent or reduce infection

[paleotn]

20. No, no and no.

You misunderstand immunity. They reduce the length and intensity of infection, but most importantly, they reduce the transmissibility of the virus to other humans. Transmission is the end all, be all for viruses. Control that, and you beat the virus like we did with small pox. If they cannot find a certain number of new hosts, a virus hits a dead end and dies out. A fire is a good analogy, dying out to embers and ash if new fuel isn't added and added at or above a certain rate.

[JohnSJ]

32. It is an antibody antigen reaction which neutralizes the pathogen. That is the whole point.

lock and key

[PSPS]

12. No, vaccines are always meant to prevent infection. That's the very definition of the word.

The fact that the current covid vaccine doesn't always prevent infection by delta and this new variant means that, in some people, it is merely a palliative, which means it reduces symptoms. This is not to say the current vaccine is not worthwhile. Just the reduction or elimination of symptoms is very important. However, infection, even with little or no symptoms, still leaves the patient susceptible to long-haul effects like fatigue, "brain fog," etc.

[Tomconroy]

24. Do you have a link for that?

[PSPS]

45. A link for what? A dictionary?

[Tomconroy]

47. Ha. No, I didn't think so.

[uponit7771]

27. No ... people got CV19 from the non placebo group in every CV19 vaccine study. Delta didn't exist

... at that point.

Immunity means 99.x% don't GET the virus at all not 97 or 93%

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine#:~:text=Primary%20efficacy%20analysis%20demonstrates%20BNT162b2%20to%20be%2095%25%20effective%20against%20COVID%2D19%20beginning%2028%20days%20after%20the%20first%20dose%3B170%20confirmed%20cases%20of%20COVID%2D19%20were%20evaluated%2C%20with%20162%20observed%20in%20the%20placebo%20group%20versus%208%20in%20the%20vaccine%20group

[PSPS]

44. Nothing in there contradicts anything I said. No vaccine is 100% effective as a vaccine in everyone.

Of course, the covid vaccine is an actual vaccine for those in whom it prevents infection. In those it doesn't, it virtually eliminates the chance of death or serious symptoms that require hospitalization. So everyone who gets the vaccine is protected in one way or another. However, if one does get infected, even without any symptoms, they can both spread the virus and suffer long-haul.

[berni_mccoy]

28. How can you say that? They absolutely were designed to prevent infection

What they are not capable of is 100% effectiveness. I’m a mathematician who specializes in modeling, including biological processes. Immunology is about the math; the statistics involved in transmission and internal infection within the body. Vaccines do both: reduce transmission and reduce viral load within the body. COVID is so infectious that the variants are able to push the odds in the favor of the virus, reducing the efficacy of the vaccine. Once that efficacy is reduced to a certain level, the virus can regain exponential growth factor.

[uponit7771]

29. The CV19 studies from 2020 had people who caught virus from non placebo groups, did anyone rea

...read that study?!?!

[berni_mccoy]

30. Of course I've read most of the studies. Claiming a vaccine

Isn’t designed to reduce infection is a false (and somewhat dangerous) statement to make.

[uponit7771]

33. I agree and didn't claim that, I claimed it wasn't 100% immunity against the original virus

[JohnSJ]

34. Exactly. The Antony neutralizes the antigen. Gee I wonder how small pox and polio mostly

disappeared

[Mariana]

51. Wherever did you get that idea? The CDC says the opposite.

COVID-19 vaccines are effective at preventing infection, serious illness, and death. Most people who get COVID-19 are unvaccinated. However, since vaccines are not 100% effective at preventing infection, some people who are fully vaccinated will still get COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

[uponit7771]

55. CDC never says vaxs effective at preventing 100% infections!! Even studies before vaccine EUA theree

... was 5% of that study group infected without the placebo !!

[Mariana]

56. So what? No vaccine works 100% of the time.

Neither does any other medication, treatment, or preventative. I had the measles vaccine and still got measles a few years later. Will you now claim the measles vaccine "was never meant to prevent infection" because it failed to do so in a small percentage of the people who received it?

COVID-19 vaccines are effective at preventing infection, serious illness, and death. Most people who get COVID-19 are unvaccinated. However, since vaccines are not 100% effective at preventing infection, some people who are fully vaccinated will still get COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html

You said:

Vaccines were never meant to prevent infection, vaccines weren't immunity

But they are meant to prevent infection, and they do, most of the time.

[Celerity]

59. +1

[madville]

62. Go back and read early 2021 articles and studies

Pre-Delta they absolutely were marketed and sold to the public as effective at “preventing infection”, every advocate and outlet was promoting that. Since Delta the goal posts moved to “prevents hospitalization “ and “reduces severe symptoms”.

[paleotn]

16. Clarification....

Nu appears to be more transmissible than Delta, but there's limited data so the jury is still out.

Vaccines don't prevent infection...ever. They give the immune system a leg up in fighting the invader, reducing symptoms and length of infection. Most importantly, they slow the rate of transmission to something manageable by conventional means...staying home when sick, practice social distancing, masks, etc., etc. Together, those things squash the probabilities of viral transmission. The holy grail of containing a viral pathogen.

Delta has an R0 of round 5, vs. 2.8 for ancestral strains. No definitive info on Nu yet. Measles on the other hand is crazy contagious with an R0 of 12 to 18, meaning an infected person will likely infect 12 to 18 people during normal social interaction.

Existing mRNA vaccines will continue to give varying levels of protection no matter how Covid evolves since they're targeted on the viral spike protein. The literal key to entering host cells. That puts Covid in a catch 22. If it's spike proteins evolve too far, they can avoid the vaccine, but can't infect certain human cells and visa versa.

Other than that, I agree with everything you posted, particularly the maga / libertarian stupidity being our greatest risk factor.

[Tomconroy]

19. The CDC estimates that 147 million people actually have been

Infected with Covid. For the rest of the country it's a matter of time.

[paleotn]

22. Not if we get our act together on vaccinations globally.

but I'm not holding my breath. In highly vaccinated populations, it will hollow out the remaining unvaxxed, but finds tough sledding among the vaccinated, eventually slowing transmission. It will evolve and flare wildly in less vaccinated populations, however, since human immune response is slow and not terribly effective with respect to coronaviruses. That's another thing folks don't understand. Not all viruses are created equal when it comes to naturally produced immunity. Some viruses produce long lived immunity in humans. Some don't. Some do, be evolve quickly, like influenza, evading past immunity.

Fascinating stuff. The biology isn't my world, but the probabilistic mathematics intrigues me.

[Tomconroy]

23. Did you know that you can get an EU Covid vaccine passport

By showing proof of recent Covid infection just as if you were fully vaccinated?

[paleotn]

40. Haven't heard that. Sounds risky.

[uponit7771]

38. +1, I think its a matter of time though because of the idiots but we could've stopped the spread ...

... with more effective government a year ago

[DenaliDemocrat]

26. Yes, and the stubborn folks here don't understand

That the receptor binding domain is like a lock and key, and you can only alter that key so much before it no longer fits. It has been modeled multiple ways to Sunday. Any mutation great enough to escape the vaccines 100% is too mutated to engage the RBD. People cannot seem to understand this simple concept.

They also fail to grasp that neutralizing antibodies are a very small and relatively speaking weakest part of the immune response.

They also do not get that 98% effective vs death does NOT mean 2% of the cases resulted in death, and that expected deaths are about .7% in the vaccinated vs naive expected death rate

[JohnSJ]

36. Yes. That is the whole thing about an antibody neutralizing the antigen

[paleotn]

42. mRNA technology is a wonder....

and will take it's place among the crowning achievements of modern medical science. Highly effective vaccines in months, not years and we're just scratching the surface.

[uponit7771]

37. +1, the non placebo group in the original Phizer / Moderna studies got the virus

[PSPS]

43. I stopped reading at "Vaccines don't prevent infection"

You're practically dismissing the importance of getting vaccinated.

[Tomconroy]

46. I don't know how anyone has concluded that the new or nu

Variant is more transmissible than delta since the NYT reported yesterday that only 22 cases had been discovered in South Africa. But what do I know,?

[Tomconroy]

6. I'll include this story from CNN that indicates the heads of

The firms that created the Pfizer vaccine have said they can adapt their vaccine in six weeks and roll out production in 100 days and they are already on the case.
Go back to shopping everyone.


https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/new-covid-variant-south-africa-11-26-21/index.html

[eleny]

7. kick & rec

[mainer]

9. Weirdly enough, the rise of Nu could be good news

IF it is highly infectious and ALSO less virulent, it means a mild variant will displace the dangerous Delta variant. It could mark the beginning of the end for this pandemic.

[Tomconroy]

13. Dr. Faucci has been predicting the end of the pandemic in the

Spring of 2022 since last summer.

[yaesu]

25. and this is generally the way virus mutate too, probably will be just another common cold to deal

with down the road.

[multigraincracker]

39. Good news for me. I like to shelter in place.

Some of those at the Thanksgiving dinner weren't vaccinated so I got to stay home. Looks like this one will get me out of Christmas get togethers.

[Maru Kitteh]

58. New news, nu has a new name, not nu.

And aren't we glad they picked something different? Because that was going to be confusing as hell.

[pinkstarburst]

21. South Africa's problems are due to vaccine hesitancy

South Africa just released a statement saying they do not want any more vaccines at this time. They have enough vaccine on hand for 153 days at the current vaccination rate. People there simply do not want to get the vaccine--it's even worse than in the US.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-24/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-as-inoculations-slow

[Delphinus]

66. Thank you

This really needs to be part of the story. Vaccines are being shared by first world countries but they are not being used by the population.

[nilram]

15. Thanks. Worthwhile reading.

Informative.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. "This doesn't need to be so hard." +1. . . . nt

[berni_mccoy]

31. I appreciate what this scientist is doing. However, they are being a bit hypocritical

In making a claim that it is not plausible that this mutation can evade vaccines to take us back to square one while also claiming other scientists don’t have enough information to make claims.

The real question is what is the efficacy of our current vaccines against this strain. We likely won’t know that for a few weeks

If the efficacy is reduced to 50% and the transmission rate (R0 factor) is greater than Delta, then we are indeed back at square one needing another vaccine tailored for Nu.

[DenaliDemocrat]

35. Again, from a virology standpoint

Square 1 is an entire population with a complete naive immune system. As noted above, there will always be some level of crossover now. We can never go back.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. I would 10x rather be overhyped on a variant to ever be in a position again

where something like trump hiding it from us and people dying

[PSPS]

48. The OP should self-delete this post. It's fostering the posting of too much disinformation.

[DenaliDemocrat]

49. The OP will do no such thing

Because the OP posted real science from real virologists who worked on the Oxford and Moderna vaccines instead of repeating reactions based on fragmented science from a country with extremely low vaccination rates.

The OP is also a biochemist who is tired of the bad information put forth here.

[herding cats]

52. I agree with what you're saying here with on caveat...

You should change Nu to The Big O. The WHO decided to officially go with Omicron as the name for the variant and I've decided that's what I'm calling it. 😂

[scipan]

53. Thank you so much for this information. Nt

[BannonsLiver]

54. Not doomy enough?

[Raftergirl]

50. It's being called Omicron

not NU.

https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

57. Very informative.

Thanks for posting.

[Dorian Gray]

60. Thanks for sharing this

Chiselers is my favorite virologist on twitter. She's level headed and not fear mongering. She's intelligent and puts everything forward in a non biased way. It's straight up science told in an accessible way for a non-science based audience.

IF you don't follow her and you are interested in what epidemiologists, virologists and scientists have to say about Covid, please do. She's been an invaluable resource.

No scare mongering. Just the facts laid out.

[mainer]

63. Dozens of positive passengers on flight from South Africa!

I follow journalist Stephanie Nolen on Twitter and she’s stranded in Schiphol airport with hundreds of other passengers from Jo’Burg. Word is that dozens have tested positive (variant unknown) and they can’t leave. A nightmare. But they all felt well enough to board an 11-hour flight to Amsterdam, so maybe this Omicron variant isn’t so terrible.

[mainer]

64. Stephanie Nolen's Twitter

An exhausting ordeal I’m following in real time:

https://twitter.com/snolen?s=21

[DenaliDemocrat]

65. So the general consensus right now is that due to

Low infection rate of Delta in SA, making any inferences on transmission vs Delta is premature.