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[Tomconroy]

This message was self-deleted by its author (Tomconroy) on Sat Dec 18, 2021, 10:20 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[Nevilledog]

1. It's the result of not providing enough vaccines for the world.

[Tomconroy]

2. I was actually asking why cases are not doubling every 3 days

But I agree with your point.

[lapucelle]

6. In South Africa the problem is vaccine hesitancy.

South Africa delays COVID vaccine deliveries as inoculations slow

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/

Africa's COVID-19 Vaccine Problem Is More Than Just a Shortage of Doses

https://time.com/6124974/omicron-africa-vaccines/

Omicron’s Spread Exposes South Africa’s Vaccination Struggles, Public Distrust
Rollout of shots was hampered first by lack of supply and more recently by skepticism and low case numbers

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicrons-spread-exposes-south-africas-vaccination-struggles-public-distrust-11638712983

South Africa’s Vaccine Headache Switches to Demand From Supply

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-13/south-africa-s-vaccine-headache-switches-to-demand-from-supply

[madville]

15. There are plenty of vaccines, in fact

The vaccines doses often expire and are destroyed in these African countries due to vaccine hesitancy, not availability.

[kirby]

3. Data is confusing...

Lots of people in SA already had covid so their so called unvaccinated population have some level of immunity from previous exposure.

[Tomconroy]

4. You mean natural immunity works?

[kirby]

5. Yes...

If you are not one of the people who dies first. Kind of like Dirty Harry..."you feeling lucky punk?"

[Scrivener7]

7. We've always known that having the virus gives you some immunity. The question

with this thing is how much, and how much against the variants?

The problem with herd immunity is that it requires an unnecessary bloodbath. I'm not willing to be one of the ones who dies while we are bringing our society to herd immunity.

And then doing it again for the next variant.

And again for the next,

And so on.

[lapucelle]

8. According to the experts, omicron's transmissibility is still unknown.

Transmissibility: Currently, it is unknown how efficiently the Omicron variant can spread from person to person. The replacement of Delta by Omicron as the predominant variant in South Africa raises concerns that the Omicron variant may be more transmissible than Delta, but due to the low number of cases in South Africa when Omicron emerged, it is unclear if this variant is more transmissible than the Delta variant. Further, the relatively small number of cases documented to date makes it difficult to estimate transmissibility. Analysis of the changes in the spike protein indicate that the Omicron variant is likely to have increased transmission compared to the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, but it is difficult to infer if it is more transmissible than Delta.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron-variant.html

[Effete Snob]

9. Depends on your definition of "works"

Did you know that smoking cigarettes will eventually cause people to stop smoking in many cases?

If you want to tolerate a high enough body count, a lot of things “work”.

[Tomconroy]

11. As Johnny Cochran used to say:

That's an interesting answer to some question but let's get back to MY question. Why aren't Covid cases in SA doubling every three days?

[Effete Snob]

34. Because it's summer there

Which is pretty easy to understand if you bother to, you know, look at a map and know how seasons work.

Do you remember what last July was like? We are approaching the solstice. You may have recognized by the annual decorations and festivities.

[Tomconroy]

36. It never ceases to amaze me that annonymous.people

On the internet can explain what no one else can.

[RussBLib]

38. are you sure that it isn't?

I have seen some stats, but nothing to answer your Q

[Mariana]

44. Of course natural immunity works.

Maybe not forever, but credible reports of reinfections are pretty uncommon as far as I know.

[appalachiablue]

10. In South Africa where many have already had Covid

it's also warmer weather now- not indoor winter and many reports include the large younger population there- some of the issues that people claim are factoring into SA news.

> There are 4 articles in LBN on the Front Page now with news of Omicron, the Covid 'blizzard' and comments.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142842168

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142841814

[Tomconroy]

12. I am fully aware of the fear porn. I'm asking about what is

happening in the real world.

[appalachiablue]

22. I'm taking the new reports into account- 'fear porn'

to you, that's fine.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

13. Because math and because they used to be doubling EVERY day

But that was then, this is now.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/south-africa-s-new-covid-19-cases-double-in-1-day-amid-omicron-1.5689559

If you have 1% infected on Dec.1,

2% Dec 2
4% Dec 3
8% Dec 4
16% Dec 5
32% Dec 6
64% Dec 7

It does not go to 128%.

If it is every 3 days:

2% Dec 4
4% Dec 7
8% Dec 10
16% Dec 13
32% Dec 16
64% Dec 20

As a practical matter, when it gets above some large percentage, it starts to slow down.

[Tomconroy]

14. Now if everyone would figure that out. Even the scientists.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

28. They have. Seems you haven't. What's your game?

[Mariana]

46. You mean they won't continue to double every day forever?

[NickB79]

16. COVID in Africa has confused scientists for 2 years now. No one really knows yet

On paper, there should be millions dead there. Rampant HIV, malnutrition, wars, poor medical care, little vaccination, etc. It looks like the perfect environment for a pandemic to rage.

Yet most of Africa has been largely spared from ALL the variants so far. Even the Delta wave in South Africa has a fraction of the deaths and hospitalizations compared to most European countries and the US when adjusted for population size.

It's why I'm really hesitant to apply what we're seeing in South Africa to the US or Europe.

Note that this was written before Omicron was discovered.

https://theconversation.com/the-impact-of-covid-19-has-been-lower-in-africa-we-explore-the-reasons-164955

[LisaL]

17. And it's already clear that data coming out of UK on omicron isn't going to be the same as

data coming from South Africa. UK is suggesting omicron could be just as bad as delta in terms of severity, not mild.

[Tomconroy]

18. And getting back to my original question.....

[LisaL]

19. It's summer there?

Younger less overweight population than in US or Europe.

[Tetrachloride]

27. Africans eat a medium calorie diet in most countries.

Not very many fat people in Egypt for example.

[Ace Rothstein]

35. South Africa is in the top 20% of countries by obesity.

Egypt is just a few spots below the US.

[Tetrachloride]

48. if I may rephrase, its rare to see super obese as in Wisconsin

I was aware of the statistics. but upon arrival, my visual perceptions changed.

the statistics of obese and super obese overlap , I predict.

on the other hand, Arab culture and cost of living women at home.

Black tea here can be super sugary.

[Sugarcoated]

29. As someone above said

Covid in South Africa/Africa appears to be behaving very differently than other countries. No one knows why yet.

[Wingus Dingus]

23. I wonder if there is a prior widespread viral exposure

of some sort, in that population, that makes them fight off Covid better--or maybe there is a genetic component in either becoming infected initially or immune reaction afterward. Health experts had tried studying things like blood type and other genetic factors in contracting Covid, not sure what was ever discovered that proved true over time.

[Pobeka]

20. Initially, it was incredible. They appear to have gone past the peak now.

Go look at the data.

Just visually compare the uphill slope on this last wave to the uphill slope of the previous wave.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

[LisaL]

21. This is their fourth wave.

Their delta wave appears to be smaller than their omicron wave. Our delta wave is still going strong.
South Africa doesn't appear to be a good model for what will happen in the US, whatsoever.

[Pobeka]

25. Yep. This one looks like they thought delta might look like.

Rose super fast, (looks like, another couple of days we'll know for sure), is dropping fast when the population of susceptible individuals grew small.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

24. Too early in that variant's life span to answer your question accurately ...

which in reality, should be addressed by an immunologist of international standing, not by casual users of a political forum.

You can get most of the best opinions currently available here, as they have asked that question of people in SA:

South Africa says vaccines and natural immunity are limiting latest Covid wave
Peter Beaumont
The Guardian UK
Fri 17 Dec 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/south-africa-says-vaccines-and-natural-immunity-are-limiting-latest-covid-wave

Many, many data sets, knowns and unknowns are involved in accurately answering such a question as well as demographic factors such as population aging and mobility.

It's irrelevant to us in the USA that SA's case spread rate appears to be slower.

KY.....

[Sugarcoated]

30. Your response is the best answer to the OP's question

None of us are experts.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

32. Thanks. We get asked the damnedest things on DU sometimes.

Unfortunately on the subject of COVID, unqualified internet opinions can kill people.

KY.......

[Tomconroy]

39. Why is it irrelevant?

[KY_EnviroGuy]

49. Because SA is very different from the US in many ways and....

it makes more sense to pay attention to our own data and that of similar nations.

For example (from another Guardian article)....

Dr Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, told a select committee on Thursday that for Omicron the R value was between 3 and 5 in the UK and that the variant was spreading rapidly – doubling in size every two days.

Hopkins said data on the severity of Omicron would not be known for another fortnight. At least 250 patients would need to be admitted to hospital before there could be a statistical analysis of the disease, she said.

South Africa has a younger, much less mobile population and they were more seriously exposed by the earlier waves. They also live in a drastically different climate than the USA.

Just sayin' we should be watching the UK, Canada, Germany and Mexico for example, rather than SA.

Regardless, it's still too early in Omicron's life span for average citizens to even discuss it, or at least in ways that might shift people's behavior and hence possibly risk their life.

From what I'm reading, Delta is still the primary bad-ass virus. With everyone in the US trending toward the indoors and considering nation-wide holiday activities, this is no time to let our guard down.

KY

[hamsterjill]

26. When you get an answer, will you please let me know?

I have the same curiosity. And I’m sensing a change in the messaging for the US. Have you seen the doctor from Stanford who was on Smirkonish last night? Very interesting.

[Tomconroy]

31. I have been following the twitter feeds and no one knows the answer.

But reality is not matching up with the predictions of some in SA.

[Pobeka]

33. Another thing. The total vaccination % for S. Africa is only 44

See page 9

https://sacoronavirus.co.za/latest-vaccine-statistics/

I'm not sure it that number is fully vaccinated (I suspect it is)

In the US, we are at 61% fully vaccinated. and 72.5% at least partially vaccinated.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total

The UK is at 68% fully vaccinated.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/uk_coronavirus_full_vaccination_rate

That difference if vaccination rate is going to have a noticable effect (in a good way) on the spread, and severity of omicron in the US and UK.

[Tomconroy]

37. And we have some unknown amount of unvaxxed people

with natural immunity.

[Mariana]

40. Why do YOU think they aren't doubling every three days? nt.

[Tomconroy]

42. I have no idea.

[cadoman]

41. why do you need an explanation to follow the science?

We've known since the beginning of the pandemic what it takes to get out: wear a mask, social distance, and vaccinate. The scientific evidence in favor of this is overwhelming, and you can see it from the suffering and death in the qanon cult states.

It's not up for us to analyze case data, most of which starts well but is then misrepresented by misinformation specialists (which it appears have suckered you in). Let the scientists and journalists handle the analysis.

Our job is to follow the scientific consensus and let the experts handle the analysis. You're swimming way out of your lane right now, and could end up in the ocean if you're not careful.

[Tomconroy]

43. I appreciate the warning!

[cadoman]

45. no problem, I stumbled onto some misinformation on COVID "prophylaxis" once..

..and was actually rescued by some folks here. Just stick to your mask routine and keep your vaccine status up to date, and avoid gqp at all costs.

[Tomconroy]

47. So this is out there:

Link to tweet

?s=20

[LisaL]

50. People likely got a lot of immunity from the previous waves.

NT