Russia's Vietnam: Why an Invasion of Ukraine Would Be a Disaster for Putin

[Sherman A1]

Ukraine is about Putin's Post-Imperial Hangover, not NATO, Biden's 'Weakness,' and So On

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a disaster for Russia. It would obviously also be a disaster for the Ukrainian population, but geopolitically it is hard to see how Russian President Vladimir Putin would escape either the international isolation which would ensue, or win the war itself with manageable costs.

The media's coverage of Ukraine has missed this; it has been alarmist and hyperbolic. As in the coverage of the Afghanistan withdrawal last summer, the media again has rehearsed exhausted neoconservative tropes about U.S. 'weakness' and the 'strength' of its autocratic opponents who are apparently bent on no less than global domination. The 'blob' seems particularly dazzled by Putin's strength, tactical brilliance, and so on. Just as predictions last summer that the withdrawal from Afghanistan would bring down the world order, this year's hyperventilating will almost certainly be inaccurate.

NATO Expansion is Not to Blame

One variation on this argument is that had NATO not expanded, Putin would not be pressuring Ukraine and other states around Russia. The Russians read NATO as a threat, and its expansion east is the reason Putin supports gangsters like Alexander Lukashenko, the repressive president of Belarus, or maintains 'frozen conflicts,' as in Georgia, along Russia's perimeter. The story goes that U.S. officials made promises to the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, that the U.S. would not expand the alliance towards Russia's borders.

Whether such promises were made and how binding they were given has long been a point of contention, but this entire line of argument misses the real, geopolitical reason NATO expanded – the huge demand for it in Eastern Europe and its massive advance of Western security and values (200 million people and the economies permanently joining the West). The entire Russian argument, for decades, against NATO expansion is premised on the idea that eastern European states do not enjoy full foreign policy autonomy, that they are within a Russian sphere of influence which gives Moscow some measure of veto privilege over their foreign policy choices, such as external alignment. Accepting this line of reasoning is consonant with neither the moral (liberal) values of democratic states, nor in the national interests of the NATO membership.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2022/01/25/russias-vietnam-why-invasion-of-ukraine-would-be-disaster-putin.html

[former9thward]

1. Russia does not need or want all of Ukraine.

Which makes the argument being made in the OP not really effective. The Russians would like a land bridge to Crimea and take the Russian separatists areas of Ukraine. No need, at this time, to take the western regions.

[paleotn]

3. Ukraine won't let them have it without a fight. Period.

A fight where Ukraine is funded and equipped by the US and NATO allies. Thus, a quagmire that will bleed Russia white without even counting the massive sanctions.

[former9thward]

4. There will be very little supply to Ukraine.

The U.S. has offered very small shipments so far. As far as NATO is concerned;

Germany Blocks NATO Ally From Transferring Weapons to Ukraine

Germany is blocking North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permits for German-origin weapons to be exported to Kyiv as it braces for a potential Russian invasion.

Unlike the U.S., Britain, Poland and other allies, the German government has declined to export lethal weapons directly to Ukraine.

In the case of Estonia, a small country on Russia’s northern border, Berlin is also refusing to allow a third country to send artillery to Ukraine because the weaponry originated in Germany, according to Estonian and German officials.

The issue is being seen by Western security specialists and Ukraine as a test of Berlin’s arms-transfer policy during a mounting crisis in Europe and points to the difficulties the U.S. and its European allies are facing in forging a common response to Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine and demands.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-blocks-nato-ally-from-transferring-weapons-to-ukraine-11642790772

So much for NATO "unity".

[paleotn]

5. Estonia? That's a joke, right?

Germany cannot stop the US, GB or any other NATO ally from supping Ukraine.

Very small shipments....that you know of, man. That you know of.

[former9thward]

7. Estonia has been a member of NATO since 2004.

So, yes, Germany can stop NATO allies from supplying Ukraine. "That you know of" OK, I sure secret agents all over the place. Someone watching too many movies??

[paleotn]

8. Estonia can't supply German made weapons to Ukraine.

How does that impact the US, GB, Poland....specifically? How?

[Igel]

6. Cross-talk.

Ukraine says that a full-scale invasion won't happen.

Media reports "no invasion will happen." They're different things. The media version is blatant misinformation. The claim is that Lviv, perhaps Kyev, are safe. Mariupol'? No claim's made.

If Russia did invade and occupy Russian-majority areas, triggering--as they did in the Donbas to milquetoast outcry--a large ethnic outflow of ethnic Ukrainians, they'd have a relatively Ukrainienfrei area that would easily connect the Donbas to the Krym. Given that nobody noticed in 2014-15, Putin might be thinking nobody would notice in 2022.

Then there'd be the claim of "mission accomplished". Yeah, some bloodshed, but little chance of insurgency. Why? Because most of the population would happily snitch on "domestic extremists" that were disloyal.

Remember, Putin says that Russia's the *real* democracy. Disagree or not, that's the claim.

Note that the USSR talked of "deepening democracy," and there was the standard joke that GDR, like any "democratic republic," obviously wasn't.

[paleotn]

9. Sure the outcry will be milquetoast? Biden certainly isn't giving off that vibe.

Nor are the Ukrainians.

[Mary in S. Carolina]

10. What is your point?

If Russia tries to take an inch of Ukraine, Putin will be in a world of trouble, so the OP by Military.com is spot on.

[former9thward]

11. He already took Crimea

And then the Donbas region by Russian separatists. No world of trouble for taking those parts of Ukraine. The Russians don't care about sanctions. They have had them in one form or another for years now. Allies such as China and India ignore sanctions.

[Mary in S. Carolina]

12. Time will tell former9thward

Yes they do care about sanctions , why do you think he wants Trump as President? Russia has a small income stream and the income stream they do have is coming mostly from Europe. Also, they have a population deficit, they cannot sustain a 20-year war and poverty at the same time. This weakness will invite China to overtake Russia. Putin should feel lucky that we let him exist. He is in a very weak position. The invasion of Crimia and the invasion of Ukraine are not comparing apples to apples and today is not 2014.

[former9thward]

13. Obama had sanctions.

Trump imposed even more of them.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/

The Russians did not care about either of them. What is the evidence they did?

[Mary in S. Carolina]

15. Like I said - only time will tell.

Sanctions have crushed Russia and that is why they are coming from a position of weakness. Additional sanctions, freezing assets, preventing them from participating in SWIFT, lack of money to replenish weapons and killing off a population that is already decreasing only weakens Russia more which makes them ripe for a Chinese takeover.

I didn't say that Trump didn't put some sanctions on some Russian people (hackers, etc) with pressure from the American people and businesses, but he also gave classified information to Putin and used Putin's fascist playbook to brainwash 1/2 the US. Putin sees Trump as being weak, that is why he wants Trump in office.

Actually, both Trump and Putin are weak as they are going to soon find out. I am pretty confident in my position, but I have been wrong before.

I strongly disagree that Trumps sanctions were more severe than Obama.....please.

[paleotn]

2. A bridge too far, Vlad.

If by some bizarre occurrence Russia does invade, Ukraine is a tough nut and Russia's military is actually a paper tiger. The Russians may be victorious on the battlefield, but at a gigantic cost militarily as well as economically. Ukraine will bleed white what little there is to bleed. That might be enough to kick the legs out from under the Putin regime, plunging Russia into political chaos....again. To be honest, I fear that more than anything. I like to have a good idea exactly who is in control of all those Russian ICBMs. I'm funny that way. Give Putin an "off ramp" and a stern warning. That's the best scenario.

[roamer65]

14. Southern Ukraine across to Moldova is mainly Russian speaking.

That’s the area he would probably target in an invasion.