Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:54 PM

Does anyone really think that NATO will risk a nuclear holocaust if Russia were

to attack a NATO member such as one of the Baltic States?

I don't think so. And I bet that Putin doesn't think so either.

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102 replies	Author	Time	Post
Does anyone really think that NATO will risk a nuclear holocaust if Russia were (Original post)	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	OP
exactly.	drray23	Mar 2022	#1
You are wrong.	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#3
You are wrong. . . . nt	Bernardo de La Paz	Mar 2022	#7
2 words for you,	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#12
I guess that a cogent argument. nt.	drray23	Mar 2022	#14
Your whole argument is bullshit, you've been pushing this crap lately,	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#21
I hope they do	drray23	Mar 2022	#24
When Russia threatened France a few days ago,	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#30
yes true.	drray23	Mar 2022	#39
All very good points,	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#43
Many NATO countries are also nuclear powers	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#32
Exactly. And that why it would be a holocaust.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#35
Well that may happen.	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#40
....	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#54
Cockroaches are already sentient. Just not very much. Beware of binary thinking.	Bernardo de La Paz	Mar 2022	#89
+1. Kremlin propaganda is everywhere lately.	radius777	Mar 2022	#75
+100. nt	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#77
No way.	Elessar Zappa	Mar 2022	#20
If Putin attacks any NATO member they will defend them	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#2
No wonder the Doomsday Clock is now set at 100 seconds to midnight. n/t	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#6
Maybe so. But Putin knows NATO means business.	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#10
seems slow	eShirl	Mar 2022	#46
Agreed. I would have it set at one second to midnight if it were up to me. n/t	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#100
Because we are willing to defend ourselves?	Happy Hoosier	Mar 2022	#66
We should just surrender now....	TheRealNorth	Mar 2022	#87
It was set at 100 seconds to midnight on January 20th.	Jedi Guy	Mar 2022	#93
We all know about article 5. But would you consider taking a chance on being	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#17
So you arguing that NATO countries would sacrifice other NATO members?	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#23
I don't know exactly what NATO would do.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#38
Article 5 does NOT mean that we nuke Moscow if Russia attacks a NATO country.	LudwigPastorius	Mar 2022	#63
Of course. But a conventional response to a Russian attack could cause Putin	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#65
He may have threatened it,	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#71
That's really our best hope for survival, honestly.	Jedi Guy	Mar 2022	#97
Absolutely NATO would respond because...	Justice matters.	Mar 2022	#72
I think that you bet wrong, but it would do no good to win that bet.	Dan	Mar 2022	#4
All depends on how his Ukraine adventure turns out	calguy	Mar 2022	#5
That's a fool's bet.	WheelWalker	Mar 2022	#8
Sorry for acting like a fool, but I do not want to see a thermonuclear war.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#22
He may try to order a nuclear strike,	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#37
I hope that someone would stop Putin, but I don't know if I want to	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#99
The	inthewind21	Mar 2022	#98
Over the many years I have been on DU I have made similar comments.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#102
NATO would respond with overwhelming conventional force	NickB79	Mar 2022	#9
I think NATO will react quickly and decisively to any attack on member nations	Torchlight	Mar 2022	#11
I worry because the fighter jets are being dispatched from Poland	Walleye	Mar 2022	#13
NATO will respond.	EndlessWire	Mar 2022	#15
nothing apparently.	drray23	Mar 2022	#19
It looks like the OP is arguing that NATO should not respond if Putin invades a NATO country.	lagomorph777	Mar 2022	#29
I think he is worried as I am to a degree	drray23	Mar 2022	#33
The escalation from conventional to nuclear war may indeed trigger a response.	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#27
Fallout from a small tactical nuke would probably be limited.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#34
Your concern is noted.	lagomorph777	Mar 2022	#45
Why are you helping Putin push his nuclear threats?	lagomorph777	Mar 2022	#16
Oh come on. I doubt if there is any chance whatsoever that Putin will read my	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#26
If they dont respond, it's the end of NATO	Beastly Boy	Mar 2022	#18
+1000 NATO literally has one function. If it doesn't do its job, NATO is doomed,	lagomorph777	Mar 2022	#25
A nuclear war would probably also mean the end of NATO. n/t	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#28
Continuing to appease a Putin that is willing	Hav	Mar 2022	#69
No more and no less than an end to Moscow as well nt	Torchlight	Mar 2022	#70
Not really. NATO is well prepared to win such a war,	radius777	Mar 2022	#85
Probably. But repelling agression would not.	Beastly Boy	Mar 2022	#90
There's No Risk, Putin is Full of Shit and He Will be Erased from Existence if he Attacks a NATO	Beetwasher.	Mar 2022	#31
Actually NATO is ill equipped to respond to a Russian attack.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#41
The US is a NATO member and we spend what the next 10 countries do COMBINED	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#42
Yes, but it would take months for us to move substantial military force to	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#48
Too late for what?	SoonerPride	Mar 2022	#49
I would imagine we have bases of some sort	Mr.Bill	Mar 2022	#94
How long do you think it would take to fly a squadron of bomber jets from the US to the Baltics?	Crunchy Frog	Mar 2022	#88
US + allies: 1.04 trillion. Russia: 0.07 trillion	lagomorph777	Mar 2022	#51
"The US Army is preparing to fight in Europe, but can it even get there?"	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#56
Awesome; you're really on a roll with the concerns there.	lagomorph777	Mar 2022	#57
Not true.	Elessar Zappa	Mar 2022	#52
You are fooling yourself.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#62
Bullshit	Beetwasher.	Mar 2022	#59
With the Ukraine Invasion, NATO Is Suddenly Vulnerable	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#64
Concern Noted LOL	Beetwasher.	Mar 2022	#68
Corollary: with the Ukraine Invasion, Russia is vulnerable.	Torchlight	Mar 2022	#73
NATO is more united and stronger than ever.	radius777	Mar 2022	#86
Why do you have	sarisataka	Mar 2022	#36
Biden is only one NATO leader.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#44
And you have yet another concern.	lagomorph777	Mar 2022	#55
whats wrong with analyzing possible bad scenarios ?	drray23	Mar 2022	#61
What NATO countries would back out?	sarisataka	Mar 2022	#80
Apparently wishful thinking.	lagomorph777	Mar 2022	#47
Oh come on. I didn't say that I wish for Biden to be out	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#50
Nicolae Ceaușescu was not limited to two terms as well.	Torchlight	Mar 2022	#74
I hope that Putin has the same fate as Ceaușescu.	totodeinhere	Mar 2022	#101
I bet Putin is thinking...	AntiFascist	Mar 2022	#53
He may believe that fantasy,	MarineCombatEngineer	Mar 2022	#60
I feel like NATO will be happy to follow the US into a war. If they didn't	flying_wahini	Mar 2022	#58
I wouldn't use the word "happy", but willing, yes. n/t	Mr.Bill	Mar 2022	#95
What's to prevent him from demanding he become our president if he threatens to nuke us if we don't	DemocratSinceBirth	Mar 2022	#67
Or even worse, demands Trump be president.	Mr.Bill	Mar 2022	#96
They will risk it. NO doubt. Nuclear brinkmanship as last seen during the Cuban Missile Crisis	andym	Mar 2022	#76
NATO is the defense force of Western civilization.	radius777	Mar 2022	#78
you are wrong	Skittles	Mar 2022	#79
While I don't know what would happen,	Music Man	Mar 2022	#81
So Putin is free to invade France and the UK?	Irish_Dem	Mar 2022	#82
It doesn't matter so much what Putin thinks	Fiendish Thingy	Mar 2022	#83
I don't think that Putin wants WWIII with all of its nuclear implications	Chainfire	Mar 2022	#84
So we let Putin rule the world?	hamsterjill	Mar 2022	#91
Absolutely. An attack on a NATO country would be met with overwhelming conventional force.	Crunchy Frog	Mar 2022	#92

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:55 PM

drray23 (6,992 posts)

1. exactly.

As I was trying to imply in another tread, NATO will chicken out and not retaliate

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Response to drray23 (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:56 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

3. You are wrong.

Full stop.

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Response to drray23 (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:59 PM

Bernardo de La Paz (44,632 posts)

7. You are wrong. . . . nt

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Response to drray23 (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:02 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

12. 2 words for you,

Fucking Bullshit!!!!

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Response to MarineCombatEngineer (Reply #12)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:02 PM

drray23 (6,992 posts)

14. I guess that a cogent argument. nt.

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Response to drray23 (Reply #14)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:05 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

21. Your whole argument is bullshit, you've been pushing this crap lately,

makes me wonder what your intentions are here.

Make no mistake, NATO WILL initiate Article 5 if Putin is insane enough to attack a NATO country.

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Response to MarineCombatEngineer (Reply #21)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:06 PM

drray23 (6,992 posts)

24. I hope they do

I am all for NATO responding I'm worried that because Russia is a nuclear power there will be hesitation.

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Response to drray23 (Reply #24)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:08 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

30. When Russia threatened France a few days ago,

France made it perfectly clear that NATO would respond and NATO has nukes also.

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Response to MarineCombatEngineer (Reply #30)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:14 PM

drray23 (6,992 posts)

39. yes true.

One thing I am bit more optimistic about is the degree of non readiness Putin nuclear arsenal might be in. If the performance of his conventional forces are any indication, the Russian military is in deep shit.

It's very costly to maintain a functional nuclear force. I have no doubts France, Britain and the US have. It may be that Putin's arsenal is in bad shape and our Intel knows it .

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Response to drray23 (Reply #39)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:18 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

43. All very good points,

and something else to consider, something I haven't seen discussed too much here, with all the extremely accurate intelligence we're getting, I'll bet dollars to donuts that the CIA, or another western intelligence agency has a high level mole in Putin's inner circle feeding intelligence to us.

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Response to drray23 (Reply #24)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:09 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

32. Many NATO countries are also nuclear powers

They will not be cowed by the threat of nuclear war, as horrific as that is.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #32)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:12 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

35. Exactly. And that why it would be a holocaust.

We would destroy them and they would destroy us.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #35)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:16 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

40. Well that may happen.

But it just as likely that were Putin to give an order to nuke London and Washington that a general would shoot him in the fucking skull.

Just because Putin is a madman doesn't mean everyone under him is as well.

And if it does indeed come to that and the world ends then it was nice while it lasted.

The sentient cockroaches that arise 50 million years from now can ponder how we screwed up.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #40)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:24 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

54. ....

The sentient cockroaches that arise 50 million years from now can ponder how we screwed up.

And those roaches can munch out on Twinkies, which will survive a nuclear war.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #40)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:47 PM

Bernardo de La Paz (44,632 posts)

89. Cockroaches are already sentient. Just not very much. Beware of binary thinking.

"Does a dog have buddha-nature?"

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Response to MarineCombatEngineer (Reply #21)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:45 PM

radius777 (3,406 posts)

75. +1. Kremlin propaganda is everywhere lately.

Biden, Harris, Blinken and the rest of the admin have repeatedly and clearly stated that 'we will defend every inch of NATO territory' as Article 5' would be invoked which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. If no response occurs it would render NATO meaningless ie a paper tiger - which would have far dire consequences for the security of the West.

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Response to radius777 (Reply #75)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:46 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

77. +100. nt

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Response to drray23 (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:05 PM

Elessar Zappa (10,626 posts)

20. No way.

If a NATO country is attacked then it’s war, full stop. The world won’t let Putin take over Europe.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:55 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

2. If Putin attacks any NATO member they will defend them

Article 5 applies to all NATO member countries.

Don't kid yourself.

If Putin attacks a NATO country, NATO would not just let it go.

Nukes or not.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:59 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

6. No wonder the Doomsday Clock is now set at 100 seconds to midnight. n/t

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:00 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

10. Maybe so. But Putin knows NATO means business.

He's not the only country with nuclear weapons.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:20 PM

eShirl (18,121 posts)

46. seems slow

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Response to eShirl (Reply #46)

Thu Mar 3, 2022, 05:47 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

100. Agreed. I would have it set at one second to midnight if it were up to me. n/t

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:34 PM

Happy Hoosier (4,825 posts)

66. Because we are willing to defend ourselves?

Is there any Russian aggression in Europe you would find unacceptable?

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Reply #66)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:39 PM

TheRealNorth (8,070 posts)

87. We should just surrender now....

Because Vlad might use nukes...

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 07:13 PM

Jedi Guy (2,752 posts)

93. It was set at 100 seconds to midnight on January 20th.

I'd be willing to bet it'd be a hell of a lot closer were they to update it today.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:03 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

17. We all know about article 5. But would you consider taking a chance on being

nuked in order to save a small obscure European country? Would it be worth it if it means a nuclear holocaust that would destroy mankind?

I am not advocating that NATO not honor Article 5. I am just wondering if they would really go through with it if push comes to shove.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #17)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:06 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

23. So you arguing that NATO countries would sacrifice other NATO members?

If so then the treaty pact is meaningless.

It is literally all for one and one for all.

If Putin (or anyone else) were able to attack a NATO country with impunity then the entire treaty organization would implode.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #23)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:14 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

38. I don't know exactly what NATO would do.

I suspect that they would launch a conventional defense and hope that Putin doesn't use nukes. But if he does then all bets are off.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #17)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:30 PM

LudwigPastorius (6,374 posts)

63. Article 5 does NOT mean that we nuke Moscow if Russia attacks a NATO country.

It simply means that the full might of conventional forces roll to its defense.

Reply to this post

Response to LudwigPastorius (Reply #63)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:33 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

65. Of course. But a conventional response to a Russian attack could cause Putin

to use nukes. He has already threatened it.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #65)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:40 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

71. He may have threatened it,

but would the Generals actually give the order?
Would the special unit of the FSB release the warheads?
Would the true rulers of Russia, the Oligarchs, take out Putin because he's making it much more difficult to make their ill gotten gains?

Many things to ponder here.

Reply to this post

Response to MarineCombatEngineer (Reply #71)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 07:21 PM

Jedi Guy (2,752 posts)

97. That's really our best hope for survival, honestly.

Putin is apparently having screaming meltdowns with his inner circle, according to some reports. That's a far cry from the ice cold KGB man front he's presented thus far. The screaming whacko is who he really is, and a person like that... I feel like if he foresaw his regime collapsing, he'd order the launch.

Our best hope is that a general would put a bullet in his skull rather than carry out the order. Or that the person with their finger on the actual button is in the mold of Vasily Arkhipov or Stanislav Petrov, the sort of person who thinks, "Is this really justified? Do I really want to be the biggest mass murderer in all of human history?" Those men showed calm thinking and sound judgment in moments of grave peril, so hopefully the men and women with access to the button now are of the same character and fortitude.

This is a moment of extraordinary danger for humanity. In our choose your own adventure book, one of the options at the bottom of this page leads to "the end" on the very next page.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #17)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:41 PM

Justice matters. (6,164 posts)

72. Absolutely NATO would respond because...

first, it starts with 1, 2, or 3 countries under attack, then another, then another (or not).

The point being, once we don't respond to a commitment by treaty (serious stuff), nobody really knows what the illegal invaders will do next after seeing our weakness in not following up as we signed we would.

As for Russian military using nuclear devices on any NATO country, that would be the craziest SUICIDAL thing they'd have ever done:

How likely is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia?

Exploring key questions around Putin issuing what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries if they interfere in Ukraine.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/how-likely-use-nuclear-weapons-russia

It's a bluff, IMHO. they do have "silent" submarines not far from our shores also, but we also have some sailing not far from theirs.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:57 PM

Dan (3,385 posts)

4. I think that you bet wrong, but it would do no good to win that bet.

Money would be the least of our worries.

If Putin attacks a NATO nation and we fail to respond - then at the minimum two things:
1. NATO as an organization and what it stand for would cease to exist.
2. Why should Putin stop with one of the Baltic States, we would have shown ourselves
To be a paper tiger.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:59 PM

calguy (3,993 posts)

5. All depends on how his Ukraine adventure turns out

The Ukrainians have been putting up a valiant fight, but they are doomed as the Russian war machine grinds them down. If they can keep an insergency going after Russia gets its inevitable military victory, they might make the Russians think twice before ever thinking about another fiasco.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:59 PM

WheelWalker (8,482 posts)

8. That's a fool's bet.

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Response to WheelWalker (Reply #8)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:05 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

22. Sorry for acting like a fool, but I do not want to see a thermonuclear war.

And it could happen. Many observers believe that Putin has lost his mind and that he is capable of anything.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #22)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:13 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

37. He may try to order a nuclear strike,

but would his military carry out such a suicidal order?

Also, the Strategic Rocket Forces control the missiles, but a special unit of the FSB control the warheads, and as has been reported, not all in the FSB agree with Putin's war.

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Response to MarineCombatEngineer (Reply #37)

Thu Mar 3, 2022, 05:46 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

99. I hope that someone would stop Putin, but I don't know if I want to

take a chance on it.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #22)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 07:22 PM

inthewind21 (2,574 posts)

98. The

"It could happen" has been real for many decades now. Just now worrying about it?

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Response to inthewind21 (Reply #98)

Thu Mar 17, 2022, 12:33 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

102. Over the many years I have been on DU I have made similar comments.

Where were you then?

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 04:59 PM

NickB79 (17,805 posts)

9. NATO would respond with overwhelming conventional force

Seeing Russia's military in action, they'd be obliterated. And if Russia decided to use nukes at that point, NATO would respond in kind.

Our only real hope to avoid a full-scale nuclear apocalypse at that point would be if only a few tactical nukes were exchanged at first, and both sides came to their senses before everything went to hell.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:00 PM

Torchlight (2,000 posts)

11. I think NATO will react quickly and decisively to any attack on member nations

I think that at this moment, Putin is speeding towards the edge of the cliff and is beginning to doubt his earlier confidence and bravado.

A part of me believes that at the accelerating rate of his failure, it's not unthinkable he looks for excuses to begin drawing down.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:02 PM

Walleye (22,642 posts)

13. I worry because the fighter jets are being dispatched from Poland

Putin could decide to attack those bases and then, boy it’s on

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:03 PM

EndlessWire (5,104 posts)

15. NATO will respond.

But, I think the bigger question is, what will the World do if Putin decides to use a nuke on Ukraine? The fallout would threaten the entire world. That might be a catalyst for intervention.

Sigh.

Reply to this post

Response to EndlessWire (Reply #15)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:04 PM

drray23 (6,992 posts)

19. nothing apparently.

Short of Putin invading a NATO country nobody will intervene. At least that is what is being argued.

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Response to drray23 (Reply #19)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:08 PM

lagomorph777 (30,613 posts)

29. It looks like the OP is arguing that NATO should not respond if Putin invades a NATO country.

We should just buckle and let Putin take over the world. That would be so much better, right?

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #29)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:09 PM

drray23 (6,992 posts)

33. I think he is worried as I am to a degree

that there would be hesitation to do so. Of course NATO should respond forcefully.

Reply to this post

Response to EndlessWire (Reply #15)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:07 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

27. The escalation from conventional to nuclear war may indeed trigger a response.

Maybe.

Maybe not.

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Response to EndlessWire (Reply #15)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:10 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

34. Fallout from a small tactical nuke would probably be limited.

I am more worried about what might happen with Chernobyl now that the Russians control it.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #34)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:20 PM

lagomorph777 (30,613 posts)

45. Your concern is noted.

One more nuclear threat. Nice.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:03 PM

lagomorph777 (30,613 posts)

16. Why are you helping Putin push his nuclear threats?

Reply to this post

Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #16)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:07 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

26. Oh come on. I doubt if there is any chance whatsoever that Putin will read my

comments. He doesn't need my help to push his threats.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:03 PM

Beastly Boy (5,823 posts)

18. If they dont respond, it's the end of NATO

Every NATO country is treaty bound to unconditionally defend any other NATO country under attack. If even one country fails to deliver, the entire organization loses its credibility and purpose.

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Response to Beastly Boy (Reply #18)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:06 PM

lagomorph777 (30,613 posts)

25. +1000 NATO literally has one function. If it doesn't do its job, NATO is doomed,

and frankly, we would all be doomed. NATO is not going to buckle under to Putin's threats, even when they are amplified on social media.

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Response to Beastly Boy (Reply #18)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:08 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

28. A nuclear war would probably also mean the end of NATO. n/t

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #28)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:36 PM

Hav (5,967 posts)

69. Continuing to appease a Putin that is willing

to use nuclear weapons won't stop that either unless the whole world submits to this madman. That's exactly the reason why Nato cannot afford to abandon one of its members. It would embolden Putin.
In your hypothetical, when should Putin be stopped? After invading Poland? When he reaches Berlin?

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #28)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:39 PM

Torchlight (2,000 posts)

70. No more and no less than an end to Moscow as well nt

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #28)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:22 PM

radius777 (3,406 posts)

85. Not really. NATO is well prepared to win such a war,

thus it would be the end of Putin/Russia - not NATO.

The West - which is far wealthier and better armed - is not going to lose any conflict with Russia. That's what Putin wants everyone to think, but it is only sabre rattling to scare people and get them cowering at his feet.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #28)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:57 PM

Beastly Boy (5,823 posts)

90. Probably. But repelling agression would not.

And a nuclear war would not necessarily involve NATO, just as an attack on a NATO country would not necessarily involve a nuclear war.

And a nuclear war would probably mean an end to a whole lot of things other than NATO, not the least of them the party that initiates the first strike.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:09 PM

Beetwasher. (2,736 posts)

31. There's No Risk, Putin is Full of Shit and He Will be Erased from Existence if he Attacks a NATO

Country, probably quicker than he could give an order for a nuclear strike.

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Response to Beetwasher. (Reply #31)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:16 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

41. Actually NATO is ill equipped to respond to a Russian attack.

Most NATO members have been cutting back on defense spending for years.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #41)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:17 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

42. The US is a NATO member and we spend what the next 10 countries do COMBINED

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #42)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:21 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

48. Yes, but it would take months for us to move substantial military force to

Europe. And by then it might be too late.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #48)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:22 PM

SoonerPride (12,286 posts)

49. Too late for what?

Russia may occupy a Baltic state but we would start deploying forces immediately.

Planes would be there in minutes.

We have bases in Germany.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #49)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 07:15 PM

Mr.Bill (20,170 posts)

94. I would imagine we have bases of some sort

in most if not all NATO countries.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #48)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:46 PM

Crunchy Frog (26,307 posts)

88. How long do you think it would take to fly a squadron of bomber jets from the US to the Baltics?

We could virtually obliterate invading Russian forces within hours if we chose to. Why do you think that would take months?

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #42)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:23 PM

lagomorph777 (30,613 posts)

51. US + allies: 1.04 trillion. Russia: 0.07 trillion

Not very good math from Putin's point of view.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #51)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:25 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

56. "The US Army is preparing to fight in Europe, but can it even get there?"

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/10/08/the-army-is-preparing-to-fight-in-europe-but-can-it-even-get-there/

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #56)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:26 PM

lagomorph777 (30,613 posts)

57. Awesome; you're really on a roll with the concerns there.

Sheesh.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #41)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:23 PM

Elessar Zappa (10,626 posts)

52. Not true.

NATO would destroy the Russian military.

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Response to Elessar Zappa (Reply #52)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:28 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

62. You are fooling yourself.

Could NATO go to war with Russia … and what would happen if it did?

https://theconversation.com/could-nato-go-to-war-with-russia-and-what-would-happen-if-it-did-59694

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #41)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:27 PM

Beetwasher. (2,736 posts)

59. Bullshit

They are much more than adequately equipped.

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Response to Beetwasher. (Reply #59)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:32 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

64. With the Ukraine Invasion, NATO Is Suddenly Vulnerable

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/ukraine-russia-nato-europe.html

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #64)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:36 PM

Beetwasher. (2,736 posts)

68. Concern Noted LOL

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #64)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:43 PM

Torchlight (2,000 posts)

73. Corollary: with the Ukraine Invasion, Russia is vulnerable.

That refrigerator Ivan wanted to purchase for $500 two weeks ago is now nearly $2000.

Difficult to ignore their immediate and critical economic crisis.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #64)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:28 PM

radius777 (3,406 posts)

86. NATO is more united and stronger than ever.

Over the past 20 years, especially with the election of Trump, NATO has been fractured. But Putin's aggression against a sovereign democratic nation has strengthened and rallied the NATO coalition in ways that were unforeseen.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:13 PM

sarisataka (15,449 posts)

36. Why do you have

No faith that Biden will stand by our treaty obligations?

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #36)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:18 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

44. Biden is only one NATO leader.

I am more worried about other NATO members. And probably Biden will have left office before Putin gets around to attacking the Baltics anyway.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #44)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:25 PM

lagomorph777 (30,613 posts)

55. And you have yet another concern.

Putin might use nukes if NATO defends itself.
Putin might use Chernobyl as a dirty bomb if NATO helps Ukraine.
NATO might fall apart if one of its leaders balks.

Have I missed any?

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #55)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:27 PM

drray23 (6,992 posts)

61. whats wrong with analyzing possible bad scenarios ?

I am sure that's what Biden advisors are doing.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #44)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:58 PM

sarisataka (15,449 posts)

80. What NATO countries would back out?

Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland hate Russia and would fight with or without the US. Likely the rest of the former Warsaw Pact would join themas would Norway who has a border with Russia.

Assuming Biden stands firm, UK, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark would follow.

Who would sit out? Turkey also hates Russia but might try to stay on the sidelines unless the US is involved. France will not let themselves lose prestige so are in. The Balkan states?- maybe as some have historic ties to Russia

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Response to sarisataka (Reply #36)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:21 PM

lagomorph777 (30,613 posts)

47. Apparently wishful thinking.

Very peculiar.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #47)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:23 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

50. Oh come on. I didn't say that I wish for Biden to be out

of office. But we know that he is limited to two terms. Putin is not.

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #50)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:44 PM

Torchlight (2,000 posts)

74. Nicolae Ceaușescu was not limited to two terms as well.

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Response to Torchlight (Reply #74)

Thu Mar 3, 2022, 05:49 PM

totodeinhere (12,718 posts)

101. I hope that Putin has the same fate as Ceaușescu.

And now of course Romania is a member of NATO.

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:24 PM

AntiFascist (12,648 posts)

53. I bet Putin is thinking...

"the crazier I act, the more I will freak out the Western world and they will let me get away with what I am doing."

Reply to this post

Response to AntiFascist (Reply #53)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:27 PM

MarineCombatEngineer (9,146 posts)

60. He may believe that fantasy,

but reality would set in very swiftly if he invaded a NATO country.

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:27 PM

flying_wahini (4,969 posts)

58. I feel like NATO will be happy to follow the US into a war. If they didn't

Their own necks would be next. The proximity of Western Europe is key to your argument.
I also feel like Biden and other superpowers will persuade
Putin’s handlers to deal with him Publicly. Some back room dealing would ensue, I am sure.

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Response to flying_wahini (Reply #58)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 07:18 PM

Mr.Bill (20,170 posts)

95. I wouldn't use the word "happy", but willing, yes. n/t

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:36 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (98,711 posts)

67. What's to prevent him from demanding he become our president if he threatens to nuke us if we don't

Reply to this post

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #67)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 07:19 PM

Mr.Bill (20,170 posts)

96. Or even worse, demands Trump be president.

Oh, wait, he already did that once.

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:46 PM

andym (5,250 posts)

76. They will risk it. NO doubt. Nuclear brinkmanship as last seen during the Cuban Missile Crisis

Sorry, to scare you, but there is little evidence to suggest otherwise.

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:50 PM

radius777 (3,406 posts)

78. NATO is the defense force of Western civilization.

Biden, Harris et al have stated forcefully and repeatedly that 'we will defend every inch of NATO territory' and NATO Sec General has activated the NATO response force to bolster NATO's eastern flank (Poland and the Baltics).

An attack against any NATO country is an attack on the West (not just that particular country) and would trigger Article 5 which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. NATO (and the US) would indeed enter direct conflict with Russia at that point, which does not mean nuclear warfare, which is just something Putin says to scare the West out of the conflict. Putin/Russia would not use nukes knowing we have many nukes aimed directly at their major cities and it would be the end of him and his country.

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Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 05:54 PM

Skittles (148,505 posts)

79. you are wrong

if Putin attacks a NATO member, they will forced to act

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:02 PM

Music Man (1,108 posts)

81. While I don't know what would happen,

I do know that there are people who develop plans for this sort of thing and that we have absolutely no idea what preparations have gone into these scenarios. Especially as it relates to nuclear war, things aren't left to chance. While worst-case scenarios are frightening for the general population, defense and research people are way ahead of us.

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:12 PM

Irish_Dem (35,450 posts)

82. So Putin is free to invade France and the UK?

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:14 PM

Fiendish Thingy (12,156 posts)

83. It doesn't matter so much what Putin thinks

It matters more what his generals and FSB think.

At some point, Putin will cross a line, and at best, his orders will be ignored, more likely he will get a bullet to the head.

I envision a potential end game where a tank battalion surrounds the Politburo, or wherever Putin is located, and is cheered on by the people in the streets, and summarily ends the Putin regime.

Just like it happened at the end of the Soviet Union, except this time, the army will be on the side of the people.

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:18 PM

Chainfire (12,723 posts)

84. I don't think that Putin wants WWIII with all of its nuclear implications

I think that he wants to refight WWII where Russia came out the mighty victor. However, the game he is playing is dangerous as hell and could lead to MAD without him being able to stop it. Putin thinks that the weakened Democracies will roll over and accept his current and future plans. He may have made the fatal mistake of underestimating his enemies. He is rolling the dice with the species at stake. That is why he needs to be tied to one.

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:58 PM

hamsterjill (14,923 posts)

91. So we let Putin rule the world?

At some point, he has got to be stopped. There will be no other option.

Reply to this post

Response to totodeinhere (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2022, 06:59 PM

Crunchy Frog (26,307 posts)

92. Absolutely. An attack on a NATO country would be met with overwhelming conventional force.

If Putin chooses to go nuclear, well that's on him.

BTW, fuck Putin and anyone who shills for him.

Reply to this post

General Discussion (Forum)

Does anyone really think that NATO will risk a nuclear holocaust if Russia were

1. exactly.

3. You are wrong.

7. You are wrong. . . . nt

12. 2 words for you,

14. I guess that a cogent argument. nt.

21. Your whole argument is bullshit, you've been pushing this crap lately,

24. I hope they do

30. When Russia threatened France a few days ago,

39. yes true.

43. All very good points,

32. Many NATO countries are also nuclear powers

35. Exactly. And that why it would be a holocaust.

40. Well that may happen.

54. ....

89. Cockroaches are already sentient. Just not very much. Beware of binary thinking.

75. +1. Kremlin propaganda is everywhere lately.

77. +100. nt

20. No way.

2. If Putin attacks any NATO member they will defend them

6. No wonder the Doomsday Clock is now set at 100 seconds to midnight. n/t

10. Maybe so. But Putin knows NATO means business.

46. seems slow

100. Agreed. I would have it set at one second to midnight if it were up to me. n/t

66. Because we are willing to defend ourselves?

87. We should just surrender now....

93. It was set at 100 seconds to midnight on January 20th.

17. We all know about article 5. But would you consider taking a chance on being

23. So you arguing that NATO countries would sacrifice other NATO members?

38. I don't know exactly what NATO would do.

63. Article 5 does NOT mean that we nuke Moscow if Russia attacks a NATO country.

65. Of course. But a conventional response to a Russian attack could cause Putin

71. He may have threatened it,

97. That's really our best hope for survival, honestly.

72. Absolutely NATO would respond because...

4. I think that you bet wrong, but it would do no good to win that bet.

5. All depends on how his Ukraine adventure turns out

8. That's a fool's bet.

22. Sorry for acting like a fool, but I do not want to see a thermonuclear war.

37. He may try to order a nuclear strike,

99. I hope that someone would stop Putin, but I don't know if I want to

98. The

102. Over the many years I have been on DU I have made similar comments.

9. NATO would respond with overwhelming conventional force

11. I think NATO will react quickly and decisively to any attack on member nations

13. I worry because the fighter jets are being dispatched from Poland

15. NATO will respond.

19. nothing apparently.

29. It looks like the OP is arguing that NATO should not respond if Putin invades a NATO country.

33. I think he is worried as I am to a degree

27. The escalation from conventional to nuclear war may indeed trigger a response.

34. Fallout from a small tactical nuke would probably be limited.

45. Your concern is noted.

16. Why are you helping Putin push his nuclear threats?

26. Oh come on. I doubt if there is any chance whatsoever that Putin will read my

18. If they dont respond, it's the end of NATO

25. +1000 NATO literally has one function. If it doesn't do its job, NATO is doomed,

28. A nuclear war would probably also mean the end of NATO. n/t

69. Continuing to appease a Putin that is willing

70. No more and no less than an end to Moscow as well nt

85. Not really. NATO is well prepared to win such a war,

90. Probably. But repelling agression would not.

31. There's No Risk, Putin is Full of Shit and He Will be Erased from Existence if he Attacks a NATO

41. Actually NATO is ill equipped to respond to a Russian attack.

42. The US is a NATO member and we spend what the next 10 countries do COMBINED

48. Yes, but it would take months for us to move substantial military force to

49. Too late for what?

94. I would imagine we have bases of some sort

88. How long do you think it would take to fly a squadron of bomber jets from the US to the Baltics?

51. US + allies: 1.04 trillion. Russia: 0.07 trillion

56. "The US Army is preparing to fight in Europe, but can it even get there?"

57. Awesome; you're really on a roll with the concerns there.

52. Not true.

62. You are fooling yourself.

59. Bullshit

64. With the Ukraine Invasion, NATO Is Suddenly Vulnerable

68. Concern Noted LOL

73. Corollary: with the Ukraine Invasion, Russia *is* vulnerable.

86. NATO is more united and stronger than ever.

36. Why do you have

73. Corollary: with the Ukraine Invasion, Russia is vulnerable.