General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDoes anyone really think that NATO will risk a nuclear holocaust if Russia were
to attack a NATO member such as one of the Baltic States?
I don't think so. And I bet that Putin doesn't think so either.
drray23
(7,935 posts)As I was trying to imply in another tread, NATO will chicken out and not retaliate
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)Full stop.
Bernardo de La Paz
(50,849 posts)MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)Fucking Bullshit!!!!
drray23
(7,935 posts)MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)makes me wonder what your intentions are here.
Make no mistake, NATO WILL initiate Article 5 if Putin is insane enough to attack a NATO country.
drray23
(7,935 posts)I am all for NATO responding I'm worried that because Russia is a nuclear power there will be hesitation.
MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)France made it perfectly clear that NATO would respond and NATO has nukes also.
drray23
(7,935 posts)One thing I am bit more optimistic about is the degree of non readiness Putin nuclear arsenal might be in. If the performance of his conventional forces are any indication, the Russian military is in deep shit.
It's very costly to maintain a functional nuclear force. I have no doubts France, Britain and the US have. It may be that Putin's arsenal is in bad shape and our Intel knows it .
MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)and something else to consider, something I haven't seen discussed too much here, with all the extremely accurate intelligence we're getting, I'll bet dollars to donuts that the CIA, or another western intelligence agency has a high level mole in Putin's inner circle feeding intelligence to us.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)They will not be cowed by the threat of nuclear war, as horrific as that is.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)We would destroy them and they would destroy us.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)But it just as likely that were Putin to give an order to nuke London and Washington that a general would shoot him in the fucking skull.
Just because Putin is a madman doesn't mean everyone under him is as well.
And if it does indeed come to that and the world ends then it was nice while it lasted.
The sentient cockroaches that arise 50 million years from now can ponder how we screwed up.
MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)And those roaches can munch out on Twinkies, which will survive a nuclear war.
Bernardo de La Paz
(50,849 posts)"Does a dog have buddha-nature?"
radius777
(3,785 posts)Biden, Harris, Blinken and the rest of the admin have repeatedly and clearly stated that 'we will defend every inch of NATO territory' as Article 5' would be invoked which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. If no response occurs it would render NATO meaningless ie a paper tiger - which would have far dire consequences for the security of the West.
MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)Elessar Zappa
(15,760 posts)If a NATO country is attacked then its war, full stop. The world wont let Putin take over Europe.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)Article 5 applies to all NATO member countries.
Don't kid yourself.
If Putin attacks a NATO country, NATO would not just let it go.
Nukes or not.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)He's not the only country with nuclear weapons.
eShirl
(18,768 posts)totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)Happy Hoosier
(8,334 posts)Is there any Russian aggression in Europe you would find unacceptable?
TheRealNorth
(9,629 posts)Because Vlad might use nukes...
Jedi Guy
(3,308 posts)I'd be willing to bet it'd be a hell of a lot closer were they to update it today.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)nuked in order to save a small obscure European country? Would it be worth it if it means a nuclear holocaust that would destroy mankind?
I am not advocating that NATO not honor Article 5. I am just wondering if they would really go through with it if push comes to shove.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)If so then the treaty pact is meaningless.
It is literally all for one and one for all.
If Putin (or anyone else) were able to attack a NATO country with impunity then the entire treaty organization would implode.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)I suspect that they would launch a conventional defense and hope that Putin doesn't use nukes. But if he does then all bets are off.
LudwigPastorius
(10,732 posts)It simply means that the full might of conventional forces roll to its defense.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)to use nukes. He has already threatened it.
MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)but would the Generals actually give the order?
Would the special unit of the FSB release the warheads?
Would the true rulers of Russia, the Oligarchs, take out Putin because he's making it much more difficult to make their ill gotten gains?
Many things to ponder here.
Jedi Guy
(3,308 posts)Putin is apparently having screaming meltdowns with his inner circle, according to some reports. That's a far cry from the ice cold KGB man front he's presented thus far. The screaming whacko is who he really is, and a person like that... I feel like if he foresaw his regime collapsing, he'd order the launch.
Our best hope is that a general would put a bullet in his skull rather than carry out the order. Or that the person with their finger on the actual button is in the mold of Vasily Arkhipov or Stanislav Petrov, the sort of person who thinks, "Is this really justified? Do I really want to be the biggest mass murderer in all of human history?" Those men showed calm thinking and sound judgment in moments of grave peril, so hopefully the men and women with access to the button now are of the same character and fortitude.
This is a moment of extraordinary danger for humanity. In our choose your own adventure book, one of the options at the bottom of this page leads to "the end" on the very next page.
Justice matters.
(7,485 posts)first, it starts with 1, 2, or 3 countries under attack, then another, then another (or not).
The point being, once we don't respond to a commitment by treaty (serious stuff), nobody really knows what the illegal invaders will do next after seeing our weakness in not following up as we signed we would.
As for Russian military using nuclear devices on any NATO country, that would be the craziest SUICIDAL thing they'd have ever done:
Exploring key questions around Putin issuing what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries if they interfere in Ukraine.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/how-likely-use-nuclear-weapons-russia
It's a bluff, IMHO. they do have "silent" submarines not far from our shores also, but we also have some sailing not far from theirs.
Dan
(4,038 posts)Money would be the least of our worries.
If Putin attacks a NATO nation and we fail to respond - then at the minimum two things:
1. NATO as an organization and what it stand for would cease to exist.
2. Why should Putin stop with one of the Baltic States, we would have shown ourselves
To be a paper tiger.
calguy
(5,758 posts)The Ukrainians have been putting up a valiant fight, but they are doomed as the Russian war machine grinds them down. If they can keep an insergency going after Russia gets its inevitable military victory, they might make the Russians think twice before ever thinking about another fiasco.
WheelWalker
(9,199 posts)totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)And it could happen. Many observers believe that Putin has lost his mind and that he is capable of anything.
MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)but would his military carry out such a suicidal order?
Also, the Strategic Rocket Forces control the missiles, but a special unit of the FSB control the warheads, and as has been reported, not all in the FSB agree with Putin's war.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)take a chance on it.
inthewind21
(4,616 posts)"It could happen" has been real for many decades now. Just now worrying about it?
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)Where were you then?
NickB79
(19,596 posts)Seeing Russia's military in action, they'd be obliterated. And if Russia decided to use nukes at that point, NATO would respond in kind.
Our only real hope to avoid a full-scale nuclear apocalypse at that point would be if only a few tactical nukes were exchanged at first, and both sides came to their senses before everything went to hell.
Torchlight
(4,251 posts)I think that at this moment, Putin is speeding towards the edge of the cliff and is beginning to doubt his earlier confidence and bravado.
A part of me believes that at the accelerating rate of his failure, it's not unthinkable he looks for excuses to begin drawing down.
Walleye
(35,184 posts)Putin could decide to attack those bases and then, boy its on
EndlessWire
(7,205 posts)But, I think the bigger question is, what will the World do if Putin decides to use a nuke on Ukraine? The fallout would threaten the entire world. That might be a catalyst for intervention.
Sigh.
drray23
(7,935 posts)Short of Putin invading a NATO country nobody will intervene. At least that is what is being argued.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)We should just buckle and let Putin take over the world. That would be so much better, right?
drray23
(7,935 posts)that there would be hesitation to do so. Of course NATO should respond forcefully.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)Maybe.
Maybe not.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)I am more worried about what might happen with Chernobyl now that the Russians control it.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)One more nuclear threat. Nice.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)comments. He doesn't need my help to push his threats.
Beastly Boy
(11,086 posts)Every NATO country is treaty bound to unconditionally defend any other NATO country under attack. If even one country fails to deliver, the entire organization loses its credibility and purpose.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)and frankly, we would all be doomed. NATO is not going to buckle under to Putin's threats, even when they are amplified on social media.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)Hav
(5,969 posts)to use nuclear weapons won't stop that either unless the whole world submits to this madman. That's exactly the reason why Nato cannot afford to abandon one of its members. It would embolden Putin.
In your hypothetical, when should Putin be stopped? After invading Poland? When he reaches Berlin?
Torchlight
(4,251 posts)radius777
(3,785 posts)thus it would be the end of Putin/Russia - not NATO.
The West - which is far wealthier and better armed - is not going to lose any conflict with Russia. That's what Putin wants everyone to think, but it is only sabre rattling to scare people and get them cowering at his feet.
Beastly Boy
(11,086 posts)And a nuclear war would not necessarily involve NATO, just as an attack on a NATO country would not necessarily involve a nuclear war.
And a nuclear war would probably mean an end to a whole lot of things other than NATO, not the least of them the party that initiates the first strike.
Beetwasher.
(3,146 posts)Country, probably quicker than he could give an order for a nuclear strike.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)Most NATO members have been cutting back on defense spending for years.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)Europe. And by then it might be too late.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)Russia may occupy a Baltic state but we would start deploying forces immediately.
Planes would be there in minutes.
We have bases in Germany.
Mr.Bill
(24,762 posts)in most if not all NATO countries.
Crunchy Frog
(26,927 posts)We could virtually obliterate invading Russian forces within hours if we chose to. Why do you think that would take months?
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Not very good math from Putin's point of view.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Sheesh.
Elessar Zappa
(15,760 posts)NATO would destroy the Russian military.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)https://theconversation.com/could-nato-go-to-war-with-russia-and-what-would-happen-if-it-did-59694
Beetwasher.
(3,146 posts)They are much more than adequately equipped.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)Beetwasher.
(3,146 posts)Torchlight
(4,251 posts)That refrigerator Ivan wanted to purchase for $500 two weeks ago is now nearly $2000.
Difficult to ignore their immediate and critical economic crisis.
radius777
(3,785 posts)Over the past 20 years, especially with the election of Trump, NATO has been fractured. But Putin's aggression against a sovereign democratic nation has strengthened and rallied the NATO coalition in ways that were unforeseen.
sarisataka
(20,905 posts)No faith that Biden will stand by our treaty obligations?
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)I am more worried about other NATO members. And probably Biden will have left office before Putin gets around to attacking the Baltics anyway.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Putin might use nukes if NATO defends itself.
Putin might use Chernobyl as a dirty bomb if NATO helps Ukraine.
NATO might fall apart if one of its leaders balks.
Have I missed any?
drray23
(7,935 posts)I am sure that's what Biden advisors are doing.
sarisataka
(20,905 posts)Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland hate Russia and would fight with or without the US. Likely the rest of the former Warsaw Pact would join themas would Norway who has a border with Russia.
Assuming Biden stands firm, UK, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark would follow.
Who would sit out? Turkey also hates Russia but might try to stay on the sidelines unless the US is involved. France will not let themselves lose prestige so are in. The Balkan states?- maybe as some have historic ties to Russia
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Very peculiar.
totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)of office. But we know that he is limited to two terms. Putin is not.
Torchlight
(4,251 posts)totodeinhere
(13,271 posts)And now of course Romania is a member of NATO.
AntiFascist
(12,869 posts)"the crazier I act, the more I will freak out the Western world and they will let me get away with what I am doing."
MarineCombatEngineer
(14,313 posts)but reality would set in very swiftly if he invaded a NATO country.
flying_wahini
(7,983 posts)Their own necks would be next. The proximity of Western Europe is key to your argument.
I also feel like Biden and other superpowers will persuade
Putins handlers to deal with him Publicly. Some back room dealing would ensue, I am sure.
Mr.Bill
(24,762 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(100,132 posts)Mr.Bill
(24,762 posts)Oh, wait, he already did that once.
andym
(5,671 posts)Sorry, to scare you, but there is little evidence to suggest otherwise.
radius777
(3,785 posts)Biden, Harris et al have stated forcefully and repeatedly that 'we will defend every inch of NATO territory' and NATO Sec General has activated the NATO response force to bolster NATO's eastern flank (Poland and the Baltics).
An attack against any NATO country is an attack on the West (not just that particular country) and would trigger Article 5 which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. NATO (and the US) would indeed enter direct conflict with Russia at that point, which does not mean nuclear warfare, which is just something Putin says to scare the West out of the conflict. Putin/Russia would not use nukes knowing we have many nukes aimed directly at their major cities and it would be the end of him and his country.
Skittles
(158,548 posts)if Putin attacks a NATO member, they will forced to act
Music Man
(1,581 posts)I do know that there are people who develop plans for this sort of thing and that we have absolutely no idea what preparations have gone into these scenarios. Especially as it relates to nuclear war, things aren't left to chance. While worst-case scenarios are frightening for the general population, defense and research people are way ahead of us.
Irish_Dem
(56,295 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(18,318 posts)It matters more what his generals and FSB think.
At some point, Putin will cross a line, and at best, his orders will be ignored, more likely he will get a bullet to the head.
I envision a potential end game where a tank battalion surrounds the Politburo, or wherever Putin is located, and is cheered on by the people in the streets, and summarily ends the Putin regime.
Just like it happened at the end of the Soviet Union, except this time, the army will be on the side of the people.
Chainfire
(17,757 posts)I think that he wants to refight WWII where Russia came out the mighty victor. However, the game he is playing is dangerous as hell and could lead to MAD without him being able to stop it. Putin thinks that the weakened Democracies will roll over and accept his current and future plans. He may have made the fatal mistake of underestimating his enemies. He is rolling the dice with the species at stake. That is why he needs to be tied to one.
hamsterjill
(15,500 posts)At some point, he has got to be stopped. There will be no other option.
Crunchy Frog
(26,927 posts)If Putin chooses to go nuclear, well that's on him.
BTW, fuck Putin and anyone who shills for him.