Does anyone really think that NATO will risk a nuclear holocaust if Russia were

[totodeinhere]

to attack a NATO member such as one of the Baltic States?

I don't think so. And I bet that Putin doesn't think so either.

[drray23]

1. exactly.

As I was trying to imply in another tread, NATO will chicken out and not retaliate

[SoonerPride]

3. You are wrong.

Full stop.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. You are wrong. . . . nt

[MarineCombatEngineer]

12. 2 words for you,

Fucking Bullshit!!!!

[drray23]

14. I guess that a cogent argument. nt.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

21. Your whole argument is bullshit, you've been pushing this crap lately,

makes me wonder what your intentions are here.

Make no mistake, NATO WILL initiate Article 5 if Putin is insane enough to attack a NATO country.

[drray23]

24. I hope they do

I am all for NATO responding I'm worried that because Russia is a nuclear power there will be hesitation.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

30. When Russia threatened France a few days ago,

France made it perfectly clear that NATO would respond and NATO has nukes also.

[drray23]

39. yes true.

One thing I am bit more optimistic about is the degree of non readiness Putin nuclear arsenal might be in. If the performance of his conventional forces are any indication, the Russian military is in deep shit.

It's very costly to maintain a functional nuclear force. I have no doubts France, Britain and the US have. It may be that Putin's arsenal is in bad shape and our Intel knows it .

[MarineCombatEngineer]

43. All very good points,

and something else to consider, something I haven't seen discussed too much here, with all the extremely accurate intelligence we're getting, I'll bet dollars to donuts that the CIA, or another western intelligence agency has a high level mole in Putin's inner circle feeding intelligence to us.

[SoonerPride]

32. Many NATO countries are also nuclear powers

They will not be cowed by the threat of nuclear war, as horrific as that is.

[totodeinhere]

35. Exactly. And that why it would be a holocaust.

We would destroy them and they would destroy us.

[SoonerPride]

40. Well that may happen.

But it just as likely that were Putin to give an order to nuke London and Washington that a general would shoot him in the fucking skull.

Just because Putin is a madman doesn't mean everyone under him is as well.

And if it does indeed come to that and the world ends then it was nice while it lasted.

The sentient cockroaches that arise 50 million years from now can ponder how we screwed up.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

54. ....

The sentient cockroaches that arise 50 million years from now can ponder how we screwed up.

And those roaches can munch out on Twinkies, which will survive a nuclear war.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

89. Cockroaches are already sentient. Just not very much. Beware of binary thinking.

"Does a dog have buddha-nature?"

[radius777]

75. +1. Kremlin propaganda is everywhere lately.

Biden, Harris, Blinken and the rest of the admin have repeatedly and clearly stated that 'we will defend every inch of NATO territory' as Article 5' would be invoked which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. If no response occurs it would render NATO meaningless ie a paper tiger - which would have far dire consequences for the security of the West.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

77. +100. nt

[Elessar Zappa]

20. No way.

If a NATO country is attacked then it’s war, full stop. The world won’t let Putin take over Europe.

[SoonerPride]

2. If Putin attacks any NATO member they will defend them

Article 5 applies to all NATO member countries.

Don't kid yourself.

If Putin attacks a NATO country, NATO would not just let it go.

Nukes or not.

[totodeinhere]

6. No wonder the Doomsday Clock is now set at 100 seconds to midnight. n/t

[SoonerPride]

10. Maybe so. But Putin knows NATO means business.

He's not the only country with nuclear weapons.

[eShirl]

46. seems slow

[totodeinhere]

100. Agreed. I would have it set at one second to midnight if it were up to me. n/t

[Happy Hoosier]

66. Because we are willing to defend ourselves?

Is there any Russian aggression in Europe you would find unacceptable?

[TheRealNorth]

87. We should just surrender now....

Because Vlad might use nukes...

[Jedi Guy]

93. It was set at 100 seconds to midnight on January 20th.

I'd be willing to bet it'd be a hell of a lot closer were they to update it today.

[totodeinhere]

17. We all know about article 5. But would you consider taking a chance on being

nuked in order to save a small obscure European country? Would it be worth it if it means a nuclear holocaust that would destroy mankind?

I am not advocating that NATO not honor Article 5. I am just wondering if they would really go through with it if push comes to shove.

[SoonerPride]

23. So you arguing that NATO countries would sacrifice other NATO members?

If so then the treaty pact is meaningless.

It is literally all for one and one for all.

If Putin (or anyone else) were able to attack a NATO country with impunity then the entire treaty organization would implode.

[totodeinhere]

38. I don't know exactly what NATO would do.

I suspect that they would launch a conventional defense and hope that Putin doesn't use nukes. But if he does then all bets are off.

[LudwigPastorius]

63. Article 5 does NOT mean that we nuke Moscow if Russia attacks a NATO country.

It simply means that the full might of conventional forces roll to its defense.

[totodeinhere]

65. Of course. But a conventional response to a Russian attack could cause Putin

to use nukes. He has already threatened it.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

71. He may have threatened it,

but would the Generals actually give the order?
Would the special unit of the FSB release the warheads?
Would the true rulers of Russia, the Oligarchs, take out Putin because he's making it much more difficult to make their ill gotten gains?

Many things to ponder here.

[Jedi Guy]

97. That's really our best hope for survival, honestly.

Putin is apparently having screaming meltdowns with his inner circle, according to some reports. That's a far cry from the ice cold KGB man front he's presented thus far. The screaming whacko is who he really is, and a person like that... I feel like if he foresaw his regime collapsing, he'd order the launch.

Our best hope is that a general would put a bullet in his skull rather than carry out the order. Or that the person with their finger on the actual button is in the mold of Vasily Arkhipov or Stanislav Petrov, the sort of person who thinks, "Is this really justified? Do I really want to be the biggest mass murderer in all of human history?" Those men showed calm thinking and sound judgment in moments of grave peril, so hopefully the men and women with access to the button now are of the same character and fortitude.

This is a moment of extraordinary danger for humanity. In our choose your own adventure book, one of the options at the bottom of this page leads to "the end" on the very next page.

[Justice matters.]

72. Absolutely NATO would respond because...

first, it starts with 1, 2, or 3 countries under attack, then another, then another (or not).

The point being, once we don't respond to a commitment by treaty (serious stuff), nobody really knows what the illegal invaders will do next after seeing our weakness in not following up as we signed we would.

As for Russian military using nuclear devices on any NATO country, that would be the craziest SUICIDAL thing they'd have ever done:

How likely is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia?

Exploring key questions around Putin issuing what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries if they interfere in Ukraine.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/how-likely-use-nuclear-weapons-russia

It's a bluff, IMHO. they do have "silent" submarines not far from our shores also, but we also have some sailing not far from theirs.

[Dan]

4. I think that you bet wrong, but it would do no good to win that bet.

Money would be the least of our worries.

If Putin attacks a NATO nation and we fail to respond - then at the minimum two things:
1. NATO as an organization and what it stand for would cease to exist.
2. Why should Putin stop with one of the Baltic States, we would have shown ourselves
To be a paper tiger.

[calguy]

5. All depends on how his Ukraine adventure turns out

The Ukrainians have been putting up a valiant fight, but they are doomed as the Russian war machine grinds them down. If they can keep an insergency going after Russia gets its inevitable military victory, they might make the Russians think twice before ever thinking about another fiasco.

[WheelWalker]

8. That's a fool's bet.

[totodeinhere]

22. Sorry for acting like a fool, but I do not want to see a thermonuclear war.

And it could happen. Many observers believe that Putin has lost his mind and that he is capable of anything.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

37. He may try to order a nuclear strike,

but would his military carry out such a suicidal order?

Also, the Strategic Rocket Forces control the missiles, but a special unit of the FSB control the warheads, and as has been reported, not all in the FSB agree with Putin's war.

[totodeinhere]

99. I hope that someone would stop Putin, but I don't know if I want to

take a chance on it.

[inthewind21]

98. The

"It could happen" has been real for many decades now. Just now worrying about it?

[totodeinhere]

102. Over the many years I have been on DU I have made similar comments.

Where were you then?

[NickB79]

9. NATO would respond with overwhelming conventional force

Seeing Russia's military in action, they'd be obliterated. And if Russia decided to use nukes at that point, NATO would respond in kind.

Our only real hope to avoid a full-scale nuclear apocalypse at that point would be if only a few tactical nukes were exchanged at first, and both sides came to their senses before everything went to hell.

[Torchlight]

11. I think NATO will react quickly and decisively to any attack on member nations

I think that at this moment, Putin is speeding towards the edge of the cliff and is beginning to doubt his earlier confidence and bravado.

A part of me believes that at the accelerating rate of his failure, it's not unthinkable he looks for excuses to begin drawing down.

[Walleye]

13. I worry because the fighter jets are being dispatched from Poland

Putin could decide to attack those bases and then, boy it’s on

[EndlessWire]

15. NATO will respond.

But, I think the bigger question is, what will the World do if Putin decides to use a nuke on Ukraine? The fallout would threaten the entire world. That might be a catalyst for intervention.

Sigh.

[drray23]

19. nothing apparently.

Short of Putin invading a NATO country nobody will intervene. At least that is what is being argued.

[lagomorph777]

29. It looks like the OP is arguing that NATO should not respond if Putin invades a NATO country.

We should just buckle and let Putin take over the world. That would be so much better, right?

[drray23]

33. I think he is worried as I am to a degree

that there would be hesitation to do so. Of course NATO should respond forcefully.

[SoonerPride]

27. The escalation from conventional to nuclear war may indeed trigger a response.

Maybe.

Maybe not.

[totodeinhere]

34. Fallout from a small tactical nuke would probably be limited.

I am more worried about what might happen with Chernobyl now that the Russians control it.

[lagomorph777]

45. Your concern is noted.

One more nuclear threat. Nice.

[lagomorph777]

16. Why are you helping Putin push his nuclear threats?

[totodeinhere]

26. Oh come on. I doubt if there is any chance whatsoever that Putin will read my

comments. He doesn't need my help to push his threats.

[Beastly Boy]

18. If they dont respond, it's the end of NATO

Every NATO country is treaty bound to unconditionally defend any other NATO country under attack. If even one country fails to deliver, the entire organization loses its credibility and purpose.

[lagomorph777]

25. +1000 NATO literally has one function. If it doesn't do its job, NATO is doomed,

and frankly, we would all be doomed. NATO is not going to buckle under to Putin's threats, even when they are amplified on social media.

[totodeinhere]

28. A nuclear war would probably also mean the end of NATO. n/t

[Hav]

69. Continuing to appease a Putin that is willing

to use nuclear weapons won't stop that either unless the whole world submits to this madman. That's exactly the reason why Nato cannot afford to abandon one of its members. It would embolden Putin.
In your hypothetical, when should Putin be stopped? After invading Poland? When he reaches Berlin?

[Torchlight]

70. No more and no less than an end to Moscow as well nt

[radius777]

85. Not really. NATO is well prepared to win such a war,

thus it would be the end of Putin/Russia - not NATO.

The West - which is far wealthier and better armed - is not going to lose any conflict with Russia. That's what Putin wants everyone to think, but it is only sabre rattling to scare people and get them cowering at his feet.

[Beastly Boy]

90. Probably. But repelling agression would not.

And a nuclear war would not necessarily involve NATO, just as an attack on a NATO country would not necessarily involve a nuclear war.

And a nuclear war would probably mean an end to a whole lot of things other than NATO, not the least of them the party that initiates the first strike.

[Beetwasher.]

31. There's No Risk, Putin is Full of Shit and He Will be Erased from Existence if he Attacks a NATO

Country, probably quicker than he could give an order for a nuclear strike.

[totodeinhere]

41. Actually NATO is ill equipped to respond to a Russian attack.

Most NATO members have been cutting back on defense spending for years.

[SoonerPride]

42. The US is a NATO member and we spend what the next 10 countries do COMBINED

[totodeinhere]

48. Yes, but it would take months for us to move substantial military force to

Europe. And by then it might be too late.

[SoonerPride]

49. Too late for what?

Russia may occupy a Baltic state but we would start deploying forces immediately.

Planes would be there in minutes.

We have bases in Germany.

[Mr.Bill]

94. I would imagine we have bases of some sort

in most if not all NATO countries.

[Crunchy Frog]

88. How long do you think it would take to fly a squadron of bomber jets from the US to the Baltics?

We could virtually obliterate invading Russian forces within hours if we chose to. Why do you think that would take months?

[lagomorph777]

51. US + allies: 1.04 trillion. Russia: 0.07 trillion

Not very good math from Putin's point of view.

[totodeinhere]

56. "The US Army is preparing to fight in Europe, but can it even get there?"

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/10/08/the-army-is-preparing-to-fight-in-europe-but-can-it-even-get-there/

[lagomorph777]

57. Awesome; you're really on a roll with the concerns there.

Sheesh.

[Elessar Zappa]

52. Not true.

NATO would destroy the Russian military.

[totodeinhere]

62. You are fooling yourself.

Could NATO go to war with Russia … and what would happen if it did?

https://theconversation.com/could-nato-go-to-war-with-russia-and-what-would-happen-if-it-did-59694

[Beetwasher.]

59. Bullshit

They are much more than adequately equipped.

[totodeinhere]

64. With the Ukraine Invasion, NATO Is Suddenly Vulnerable

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/ukraine-russia-nato-europe.html

[Beetwasher.]

68. Concern Noted LOL

[Torchlight]

73. Corollary: with the Ukraine Invasion, Russia *is* vulnerable.

That refrigerator Ivan wanted to purchase for $500 two weeks ago is now nearly $2000.

Difficult to ignore their immediate and critical economic crisis.

[radius777]

86. NATO is more united and stronger than ever.

Over the past 20 years, especially with the election of Trump, NATO has been fractured. But Putin's aggression against a sovereign democratic nation has strengthened and rallied the NATO coalition in ways that were unforeseen.

[sarisataka]

36. Why do you have

No faith that Biden will stand by our treaty obligations?

[totodeinhere]

44. Biden is only one NATO leader.

I am more worried about other NATO members. And probably Biden will have left office before Putin gets around to attacking the Baltics anyway.

[lagomorph777]

55. And you have yet another concern.

Putin might use nukes if NATO defends itself.
Putin might use Chernobyl as a dirty bomb if NATO helps Ukraine.
NATO might fall apart if one of its leaders balks.

Have I missed any?

[drray23]

61. whats wrong with analyzing possible bad scenarios ?

I am sure that's what Biden advisors are doing.

[sarisataka]

80. What NATO countries would back out?

Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland hate Russia and would fight with or without the US. Likely the rest of the former Warsaw Pact would join themas would Norway who has a border with Russia.

Assuming Biden stands firm, UK, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark would follow.

Who would sit out? Turkey also hates Russia but might try to stay on the sidelines unless the US is involved. France will not let themselves lose prestige so are in. The Balkan states?- maybe as some have historic ties to Russia

[lagomorph777]

47. Apparently wishful thinking.

Very peculiar.

[totodeinhere]

50. Oh come on. I didn't say that I wish for Biden to be out

of office. But we know that he is limited to two terms. Putin is not.

[Torchlight]

74. Nicolae Ceaușescu was not limited to two terms as well.

[totodeinhere]

101. I hope that Putin has the same fate as Ceaușescu.

And now of course Romania is a member of NATO.

[AntiFascist]

53. I bet Putin is thinking...

"the crazier I act, the more I will freak out the Western world and they will let me get away with what I am doing."

[MarineCombatEngineer]

60. He may believe that fantasy,

but reality would set in very swiftly if he invaded a NATO country.

[flying_wahini]

58. I feel like NATO will be happy to follow the US into a war. If they didn't

Their own necks would be next. The proximity of Western Europe is key to your argument.
I also feel like Biden and other superpowers will persuade
Putin’s handlers to deal with him Publicly. Some back room dealing would ensue, I am sure.

[Mr.Bill]

95. I wouldn't use the word "happy", but willing, yes. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

67. What's to prevent him from demanding he become our president if he threatens to nuke us if we don't

[Mr.Bill]

96. Or even worse, demands Trump be president.

Oh, wait, he already did that once.

[andym]

76. They will risk it. NO doubt. Nuclear brinkmanship as last seen during the Cuban Missile Crisis

Sorry, to scare you, but there is little evidence to suggest otherwise.

[radius777]

78. NATO is the defense force of Western civilization.

Biden, Harris et al have stated forcefully and repeatedly that 'we will defend every inch of NATO territory' and NATO Sec General has activated the NATO response force to bolster NATO's eastern flank (Poland and the Baltics).

An attack against any NATO country is an attack on the West (not just that particular country) and would trigger Article 5 which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. NATO (and the US) would indeed enter direct conflict with Russia at that point, which does not mean nuclear warfare, which is just something Putin says to scare the West out of the conflict. Putin/Russia would not use nukes knowing we have many nukes aimed directly at their major cities and it would be the end of him and his country.

[Skittles]

79. you are wrong

if Putin attacks a NATO member, they will forced to act

[Music Man]

81. While I don't know what would happen,

I do know that there are people who develop plans for this sort of thing and that we have absolutely no idea what preparations have gone into these scenarios. Especially as it relates to nuclear war, things aren't left to chance. While worst-case scenarios are frightening for the general population, defense and research people are way ahead of us.

[Irish_Dem]

82. So Putin is free to invade France and the UK?

[Fiendish Thingy]

83. It doesn't matter so much what Putin thinks

It matters more what his generals and FSB think.

At some point, Putin will cross a line, and at best, his orders will be ignored, more likely he will get a bullet to the head.

I envision a potential end game where a tank battalion surrounds the Politburo, or wherever Putin is located, and is cheered on by the people in the streets, and summarily ends the Putin regime.

Just like it happened at the end of the Soviet Union, except this time, the army will be on the side of the people.

[Chainfire]

84. I don't think that Putin wants WWIII with all of its nuclear implications

I think that he wants to refight WWII where Russia came out the mighty victor. However, the game he is playing is dangerous as hell and could lead to MAD without him being able to stop it. Putin thinks that the weakened Democracies will roll over and accept his current and future plans. He may have made the fatal mistake of underestimating his enemies. He is rolling the dice with the species at stake. That is why he needs to be tied to one.

[hamsterjill]

91. So we let Putin rule the world?

At some point, he has got to be stopped. There will be no other option.

[Crunchy Frog]

92. Absolutely. An attack on a NATO country would be met with overwhelming conventional force.

If Putin chooses to go nuclear, well that's on him.

BTW, fuck Putin and anyone who shills for him.