A question about sanctions...
It looks as though Russia will wear down the Ukraine.
What's to keep the world - the big actors anyway - from tightening the sanctions and keeping them there after the shooting stops?
Break the country completely.
The Russian GD is slightly under half of California's... with over three times the population. Isn't it vulnerable?
I know they have oil and gas, but don't markets control those commodities? I'm sure there are Wall Street whiz kids who could figure a way to screw the Russian oil economy. Wouldn't the Big Money boys move into Russia and buy up their assets for rubles on the dollar? Wouldn't the oligarchs get tired of not being able to use banks...or their yachts... or their properties abroad?
I'm NOT an economist - don't even play one on TV.
Can somebody answer the basic question: Can the world crush the Russian economy when the shooting stops?
And force Russia to completely disarm nukes.
He has threatened the world several times! Fuck this!
...pick up some of the pieces of Russia's eastern territory. China nearly went to war with Russia in 1969 over the border. Removing a nuclear threat from China's border might be a thing they'd want.
India imports a lot of weapons from Russia, but who knows where they will stand.
Let's pretend they stay friends with Russia. Are they alone enough to save Russia?
Back in 1969 things were different. The West didn't have the strong alliances we have now. And some of China's and Russia's allies switched to the west since then.
So China and Russia have no choice but to ally against the West.
China doesn't want a weak partner...it wants an economic colony to feed them raw materials. Doing it all over Africa, too.
There's no country in Africa that would be an effective military ally against the Western powers. Russia is the only one that has a military that can be a threat to other countries and ICBMs.
Alliances change quickly.
And Russia..other than its nukes, is a hollow army. Been that way since the 1980's.
Half conscripts...corruption...flashy weapons systems that can't be produced in numbers (like our F-35)....poor logistics - as evidenced by the Ukraine invasion.
Russia is the UN-China.
The embargo must be imposed by EU, they will slide into deep recession and historic unemployment as a result. But, this may stop the war and the embargo can be lifted later, not permanent. Every time we fill gas, we must understand we continue to fund killing of Ukrainian children in the absence of embargo.
There is simply no way for China and/or India to replace EU as a buyer in the short or even mid term.