Analysis: Putin fears a coup but it's not oligarchs who will oust him -- it's the siloviki

[Floyd R. Turbo]

Analysts and Russia watchers are batting about the idea that perhaps Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin has become mentally unstable. They point to ranting speeches where Putin seems to invent history out of whole cloth, or his public and cringeworthy dressing down of one of his intelligence chiefs. Then there are the meme-worthy photos of Putin sitting at the end of ridiculously long tables. Some observe that Putin simply doesn’t look well physically – puffy in the face and less steady on his feet. Speculation suggests that all of this is due to the Russian leader’s increased isolation, his surrounding himself with yes-men, or his angst over the bite of widespread economic sanctions the West and other allies have leveled against him since Russia invaded Ukraine. Others say he is afraid of covid-19 and taking draconian precautions.


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The real threat to Putin comes from the siloviki, a Russian word used loosely to describe Russia’s security and military elite. These are people like Nikolai Patrushev, currently the secretary of the Russian security council, and Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), as well as other current and former senior security officials.

Men like Patrushev and Bortnikov not only possess hard power, but they know how to use it and are inclined to do so. The FSB includes around 160,000 members of the Border Guard service, as well as thousands of armed personnel with law enforcement authorities. But the strength of the FSB comes not only from its ability to do violence; the organization is also highly secretive. FSB officers are skilled at working clandestinely, keeping their most sensitive operations strictly compartmented to small groups. Putin understands this better than most: He once ran the organization himself.

The siloviki are willing to use this deadly mixture of hard power and secrecy when a serious threat to the Russian kleptocratic system emerges. That’s because the security elite derives their power from the system. The whole operation can flex when threatened; street protests are tolerated to a certain extent, and Russia has withstood lesser Western sanctions in the past. Like branches of an old tree, the kleptocratic autocracy in the Kremlin can withstand the occasional storm, but if the trunk is rotting, the siloviki will take action.

https://vancouversun.com/news/world/analysis-putin-fears-a-coup-but-its-not-oligarchs-who-will-oust-him-its-the-siloviki/wcm/3c862442-b671-479c-ade8-731ae71a94c4

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Didn't Putin just relieve Bortnikov of duty and place him under house arrest?

Some FSB bigwig just got canned and arrested, I thought it was Bortnikov.

[billh58]

7. Maybe you were thinking of this report:

The heads begin to roll in Russia

European media report that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the house arrest of two senior Federal Security Service (FSB) officers. Colonel-General Sergei Beseda, Chief of the FSB's "Fifth Service," reportedly was detained along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyuk, charged with providing flawed intelligence about Ukraine and their improper use of operational funds. Separately, Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine's national security council chief, claimed that several Russian generals have been fired. The implications portend more suffering yet to come, but likewise opportunities to increase pressure on the Russian leader from within.

More at link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-heads-begin-to-roll-in-russia/ar-AAVm1nK?li=BBorjTa&ocid=OEMDHP15

[RussBLib]

2. sounds as bad, or worse, than Putin

... and Navalny just got sentenced to 9 years in prison.

[Wingus Dingus]

3. Can the head thug be out-thugged?

We'll see.

[keithbvadu2]

4. Maybe he has heard of the Praetorian Guard?

Putin likes parts of history.

Maybe he has heard of the Praetorian Guard?

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Praetorian+Guard

How many emperors were killed by the Praetorian Guard?
thirteen Roman emperors
The Praetorian Guard was unpopular among the citizens of Rome. The Praetorians behaved like mobsters — extortion, bribes, and violence were their trademarks. They assassinated thirteen Roman emperors. An astonishing rate of murders for a unit whose sole purpose was the protection of the emperor.Feb 11, 2021

[empedocles]

5. putin must know stalin died suspiciously. Previously had minor strokes

'' . . . A Delay in Treatment

The guards felt they didn’t have the right authority to call for a doctor (indeed many of Stalin’s doctors were the target of a new purge) so, instead, they called the Minister of State Security. He also felt he didn’t have the right powers and called Beria. Exactly what happened next is still not fully understood, but Beria and other leading Russians delayed acting, possibly because they wanted Stalin to die and not include them in the forthcoming purge, possibly because they were scared of seeming to infringe on Stalin’s powers should he recover. They only called for doctors sometime between 7:00 and 10:00 the next day, after first traveling to the dacha themselves.

The doctors, when they finally arrived, found Stalin partially paralyzed, breathing with difficulty, and vomiting blood. They feared the worst but were unsure. The best doctors in Russia, those which had been treating Stalin, had recently been arrested as part of the forthcoming purge and were in prison. Representatives of the doctors who were free and had seen Stalin went to the prisons to ask for the old doctors’ opinions, who confirmed the initial, negative, diagnoses. Stalin struggled on for several days, eventually dying at 21:50 on March 5th. His daughter said about the event: “The death agony was terrible. He literally choked to death as we watched.” (Conquest, Stalin: Breaker of Nations, p. 312) . . . ''



https://de.zxc.wiki/wiki/Stalinsche_S%C3%A4uberungen

[SunSeeker]

9. He only suffered for a few days? Stalin deserved a longer, slower more painful death.

Like the millions of Ukrainians he forced to starve to death.

[Farmer-Rick]

12. Moral of this story.....

Don't drag the best doctors in your country off to prison if you need them to treat you and keep you alive.

Geez, I guess Stalin thought he was invincible and could jail them despite needing them to stay alive.

[Jack-o-Lantern]

6. "The death agony was terrible."

Good! Stalins death agony was bought and paid for hundreds of times by his life of murder and oppression.

[Warpy]

8. They are likely to be just as terrible, only they'll snag all the wealth

instead of giving it to their buddies--or Putin's buddies and family.

Meet the new Czar, just like the old Czar

However, I agree, the end won't come from the plutocrats, most of whom are out of the country trying to hide any assets they still have, which is most of them. It will come from military command and the intelligence high command. Apparently it doesn't matter if you rob the country blind as long as you don't engage in failed military operations based on fantasy instead of intelligence.

I have no idea if this will bring an end to the Ukraine invasion, my best guess says nope. The brass always think they can wage a better campaign. They can't. They're fighting the wrong kind of war against the wrong people with the wrong equipment and Putin's bunch have robbed Russia's military as much as it has everything else: deferred maintenance, extyremely limited training, especially for pilots, the use of cheap conscripts instead of professional military, cheap parts, lousy support, outdated and inadequate field rations, the list just goes on and on.

[Escurumbele]

10. Who would have thought it? Putin is lying, did he learn that from trump? I thought it was the other

way around, I thought Putin was the master. Of course, when it comes down to lying there is no one greater than trump, he is the greatest liar of all time...something he is good at, Geez!

[Martin68]

11. Nice analysis. Thanks for sharing.

[lindysalsagal]

13. I assumed it would be something like this. Thanks for getting the details.

[LiberalLovinLug]

14. All well and good.....except the replacement would be beholden to the same forces

Best case scenerio, Putin is gone.

But if its done by the military elite, you'd just get another pro mililtary leader. He'd say all the right things, in order to have sanctions removed. Pull out troops. But probably demand the breakaway regions, and of course Crimea as war spoils, in exchange for peace.

But the Russian people would continue to live in ignorance and fear. Probably they'd even have more draconian laws enacted, less freedoms, than even now.

The only way things would change there is if there was a popular uprising. A new Glasnov. New democratic elections including the jailed opposition leader, and overseen by international observers.

But I think the former would happen way before the later ever had a chance to get off the ground.

[empedocles]

15. putin's iron curtain on information going into russia, reportedly has holes.

Sounds plausible given the tremendous growth in communications and information technology.

Parents of dead sons may have improvised grapevines. Hackers, putin enemies, etc.

Could be complicated.