The 3 pandemic metrics that could tell us what's next

[IronLionZion]

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/23042779/covid-19-us-cases-hospitalizations-variants-long-covid

Covid-19 case numbers aren’t as reliable these days. How can we keep track of the virus?

As the United States transitions out of a pandemic footing and into a new normal, it is also undergoing a shift in which Covid-19 metrics most accurately tell the story of the pandemic. The old standbys — case numbers, namely — aren’t as reliable anymore. So what’s going to replace them?

At least three data sets are now being watched closely by the public health experts who spoke to Vox. Together, they help shed light on what’s happening now, what’s likely to happen, and how well we’re doing at dealing with what’s already happened over the course of the pandemic.

The first, hospital data, covers the present, showing the level of severe illness in a given area and the strain being put on the local health care system. The second, new data on emerging variants, concerns the future and the potential for radical mutations to send the pandemic spinning out into a dangerous new direction. And the third, data on long Covid, reaches from the past and further into the future, as scientists attempt to gain a better grasp of the collateral damage the virus has left in its wake after infecting roughly 60 percent of the US population in the past two years.

Keep in mind that the most important pandemic metrics have been a moving target since 2020. The percentage of tests that came back positive was watched closely as an indication of how widespread the virus was in a given place at a given time. But nowadays, with so many people taking at-home antigen tests and never reporting the results to anyone, most experts consider that metric now to be unreliable. Case numbers, the raw count of positive tests, were an obvious signal to watch for a long time too; not only did they track the crests and dips of different waves, any growth in cases was predictably followed by a rise in hospitalizations and deaths in the subsequent weeks.

More at the link. Vox is free so no paywall but you can donate if you want.

[Blues Heron]

1. CDC shows current hospitalizations up 17 percent from the previous week

Despite what the article says about them being down over the last two weeks. Major glaring discrepancy there.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions

Also

CDC just reported 78,910 new cases bringing the current 7 day average to 56,166 a 123 percent increase from the beginning of the month when cases bottomed out at around 25,000 7 day avg.

[abqtommy]

2. I don't have a lot of money or have access to The Media but I can say that there is no

'new normal' and something worse is definitely coming along. Masks and vaccines are
our friends.

[IronLionZion]

3. Vox, CNN, CDC, are free, there are many options that don't require money

Even Washington Post provides COVID reporting free.

Giving money to something encourages more of it. So I pay or donate money for good journalism when I see it.

[abqtommy]

4. Actually what I meant was that nobody was going to pay attention to what I had to say.

But you gave a good reply too. I'd call that a win-win.

[central scrutinizer]

5. Data from sewage

I read an article a couple weeks ago (NYT? I think) that said the number of virus particles found in sewage samples was a good predictor. If the number of virus particles was increasing, infections would soon be increasing.

[JanMichael]

6. That has gone up rapidly in NC. It doubled.

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard

But nobody seems to give a shit.

[LuckyCharms]

9. I'm quite disillusioned concerning what I've always viewed as

patriotism, doing the right thing, helping your neighbor, living as one people...what ever word or term that you want to use.

In my adult life, I've always lived under the concept that you should stick to a job until it is done, no matter what. If a job ends up taking you 100 times longer than you thought it would, you don't give up. You keep chipping away at it until it is complete.

I believe that a little discomfort is a good thing because it hardens you a bit for the REAL problems that always come along in life. Enduring some discomfort makes you less of a whiner and a generally more likeable person.

I believe that things can, and usually will, get worse.

I believe that an individual should count his/her blessings everyday, because comparatively, even if you are poor in this country, you are still better off than billions of people in other parts of the world, in many ways.

But as it happens, it seems that a very large minority of people in this country do not have what it takes. They do not have the quiet respect that I believe they should have, for the things they are blessed with. Many people do not have the strength that I assumed they had. Nor the empathy. Many people have a perceived self-importance that is not based in reality.

And that is seriously messing up my head, because it has changed my entire concept of America and Americans. I have great respect for people who endured hardship during the Great Depression. Strong people. People with iron wills. Do we still have those types of people? Yes we do, but I would bet good money that if this were to be studied, we would find that the relative percentage of these type of people dwindles every year that passes.

I was going to post this as an OP, but I know I'll get lambasted if I do, so this seemed like a good place to post my opinion as a response.

Your comment "Nobody seems to give a shit" is spot on.

[JanMichael]

10. I think it would be a good OP.

sometimes people need to hear that they're acting like idiots and some of them may stop. Although self important types don't tend to stop.

It's hard to get people to do things that will help other people while having to deal with an inconvenience.

Empathy takes internal strength. And yes because of the internet I think everybody thinks they are a f****** expert on everything.

We have become a country of know it alls. I also agree that small inconvenience and difficulty builds strength on larger things but we don't seem to think that anymore as a country. Everything has to be instantaneous with no work. Or no skin off my back.

I will be the first to say that I'm probably a product of the same idiocy that the United States has become because I was born here and grew up here. That stupid Tom Sawyer song is on the radio right now. You know:

A modern day warrior
Mean, mean stride
Today's Tom Sawyer
Mean, mean pride

Too much pride.

Add a little bit to it and post as an original.

[Mr.Bill]

7. I am pretty much taking the same precautions

I was taking two years ago. I'm getting my second booster shot in a few weeks.

The only thing that has changed for me is that other people are not taking precautions.

[IronLionZion]

8. If Dems continue to take precautions anyway

then we may have fewer Repub voters by November