General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFrom 0-100, what is the likelihood that the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys...?
...organized the attack upon our Capitol all by themselves, without the organization and coordination of someone higher up in our government?
Granted, any evidence that we see is likely circumstantial. But more people are convicted with circumstantial evidence than by direct evidence. What are the chances these "insurrectionists" planned it all by themselves?
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https://www.britannica.com/topic/circumstantial-evidence
circumstantial evidence,
in law, evidence not drawn from direct observation of a fact in issue. If a witness testifies that he saw a defendant fire a bullet into the body of a person who then died, this is direct testimony of material facts in murder, and the only question is whether the witness is telling the truth. If, however, the witness is able to testify only that he heard the shot and that he arrived on the scene seconds later to see the accused standing over the corpse with a smoking pistol in his hand, the evidence is circumstantial; the accused may have been shooting at the escaping killer or merely have been a bystander who picked up the weapon after the killer had dropped it.
The notion that one cannot be convicted on circumstantial evidence is, of course, false. Most criminal convictions are based on circumstantial evidence, although it must be adequate to meet established standards of proof.
TheRealNorth
(9,500 posts)To Bannon, Roger Stone, and the Ghoul to help him. Because there wasn't anything specific that was documented, it probably is.going to be pretty hard to pin it on TFG. The question is whether Stewie will roll on his low-level contacts.
Nevilledog
(51,220 posts)PufPuf23
(8,843 posts)brooklynite
(94,792 posts)I still haven't seen any solid evidence that elected officials, Trump campaign staff or Trump and family knew, anticipated or encouraged violence.
kentuck
(111,110 posts)Was there any thought beforehand that the day and time might be significant? Or was it just a random date? Even though the former president told the mob to "fight like hell or they would not have a country anymore", there is no evidence that teh former president anticipated violence?
Even when he sat for 187 minutes during which members of Congress and the VP of the United States were running for their lives, there is no "evidence" that he wanted more "violence" to occur?
Even the emails and text messages cannot be used as evidence unless they correlate with some criminal act. Even first hand testimony by members of the Cabinet and inner circle are not evidence enough, even when corroborated by more than one person?
Where is this secret evidence that we need in order to simply indict?
brooklynite
(94,792 posts)"Fight" has a political context and doesn't automatically mean violence ("Fight for $15)
Testimony about what? Nobody has testified that there was a known and supported plan to encourage to accept a violent reaction.
kentuck
(111,110 posts)What would you call that?
It's true that the word "fight" can have a political context. But, not always. It has to be put into context and defined by its consequences.
We don't know that your last comment is true? We don't know what all the witnesses before the Committee have testified or what those Oath Keepers have testified during their guilty pleas? I think the documents made public thus far show that there was a "known and supported plan". We don't yet know if it called for specific violence.
The circumstantial evidence cannot be dismissed out of hand.
brooklynite
(94,792 posts)Nobody disputes that Trump wanted to overturn the Electoral Vote count, but the question is whether he did something illegal in attempting it.
kentuck
(111,110 posts)No one can prove his "intent"?
None of the actions were separate from the others. It was all connected. It was meant to keep Trump in power and to keep Joe Biden from being certified.
They are all part of the same conspiratorial crime.
brooklynite
(94,792 posts)To quote from A FEW GOOD MEN: "It doesn't matter what I believe; it matters what I prove".
kentuck
(111,110 posts)I would agree. Although he doesn't "overtly" cross the line, he crosses the line nonetheless. The "intent" can be circumstantial in relation to the consequences of his actions. What happened because of his negligence? What happened because of his "non-actions"?
There will never be absolute certainty that he will be convicted in a court of law, regardless of the evidence in hand. That does not mean he should not be charged.
Septua
(2,263 posts)Based on my comprehension of reported facts, the "plan" was for Pence to reject the electoral vote count which would result in the House deciding who would be President.
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-01-05/what-if-path-was-uncertain-if-pence-objected-to-bidens-win
We know Trump repeatedly commented Pence could reject the election results, illegal or not. And Trump is just stupid enough to think Pence would have done so. But Eastman (I think it was) didn't really think it would happen and was just placating Trump. I doubt anyone other than Trump actually wanted to see the violence take place. IMO Trump didn't give a damn what happened, so long as the end result was Pence rejecting the certification. How many times did he say "if Pence does the right thing" and "you got to fight like hell" to save the election and the country?
Granted, he never explicitly told the crowd to literally storm the Capitol and block the certification procedure but the unruly crowd could readily infer just standing around outside and complaining wouldn't produce the desired result. Trump and vocal GOP supporters had been stoking the emotions for weeks prior to Jan 6 and the pre-breach rally speakers stoked even more.
Now, did someone at some point, tell leaders of the insurrectionists to storm and breach the Capitol? Maybe not; certainly not Trump. But Trump waited 3 hours before deciding to (reluctantly) call off the dogs. He knew what was going on, had multiple requests to stop it, and yet didn't.
Several "crimes" have been floated...I'm not a lawyer but if I was on a jury I think I could get way beyond any reasonable doubt.
https://fortune.com/2022/04/02/did-trump-commit-a-crime-jan-6-capitol-insurrection-here-are-the-house-panels-options-for-allegations/
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CentralMass
(15,265 posts)Phoenix61
(17,021 posts)I havent heard why they office alarm system seemed to have been disabled. They also seemed to know which windows werent reinforced as they went directly for them.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)its MFing white wingers, Roger Stone, Rudy, and others like them who will get convicted in court.
Did trump officials create the atmosphere and catalyst for the insurrection? Absolutely yes, just not sure thats criminal activity vs. more evidence trump is not fit for office.
Point is, doubt trump, Meadows, etc., will be convicted criminally.
Biggest question in my mind is will perusing trump to end of earth benefit us in mid-terms and 2024?
kentuck
(111,110 posts)But, is that reason to not even try?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)yes, in my opinion.
If I had to guess, endless hearings providing little evidence beyond just more proof trump is unfit for office, wont help us at polls. Believe me, Kentuck, I dont like feeling that way.
kentuck
(111,110 posts)Democrats are expected to lose, according to most of the polls, regardless of what they might do about the attack upon our Capitol.
And what good is a Capitol if it is not worth defending?
And what good is a Party that would refuse to defend it?
I'm just asking.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)If I thought going after trump for the next 10 years would help us, Id be all for it.
Kaleva
(36,361 posts)Beastly Boy
(9,505 posts)At least three of them pleaded guilty. Ordinarily, a guilty plea is a result of a plea deal. They surely had something to say about their capacity (or lack thereof) to organize the attack all by themselves.
kentuck
(111,110 posts)Who was that?
Otherwise, they would not have chosen that date to be in Washington.
former9thward
(32,097 posts)3 U.S. Code § 15 has been on the books since 1948. It says Congress meets on Jan 6 following the election to count the electoral votes and announce the results. It even mandates the time -- 1 p.m.
TwilightZone
(25,499 posts)You should really stop pretending that you don't know that by now. Everyone knows that Trump called for a rally on January 6th. In addition, you've been provided with this information previously, yet you continue to feign ignorance.
Example: https://democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=16642086
kentuck
(111,110 posts)He said it was going to be "wild".
I was not trying to "feign ignorance" - I was attempting to be facetious. Of course, everyone knows Trump chose the place and the date for his "rally". Some might argue it was just a coincidence?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)forcing then VP Biden to tell them "No." Point is, 2021 was not something new. Now, militia groups, large size, confederate flags, trump, etc., make it quite different.
More Than 200 Arrested in D.C. Protests on Inauguration Day
217 people were arrested and six police officers suffered minor injuries after some protesters set fires and smashed windows in the nation's capital.
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/inauguration-2017/washington-faces-more-anti-trump-protests-after-day-rage-n709946
Initech
(100,108 posts)jmowreader
(50,567 posts)Today I will introduce you to a wonderful Military Intelligence technique called Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield.
This is the Army field manual that tells you how to do it:
https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm34-130.pdf
This is the RAND Corporation's report on how IPB needs to be modified for urban operations:
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1287.pdf
There is absolutely no way they could have done an attack like this without doing IPB on the Capitol. These guys knew EXACTLY where to go to create the most havoc. And that, my young friends, means this was plotted with inside help.
fightforfreedom
(4,913 posts)We know the oath keepers were staging weapons in and around DC. Who, what, were they waiting for? Why didn't they attack once they saw the capital being breeched? Are we supposed to believe they staged all those weapons just in case , hoping, Trump asked for their help. That's hard to believe.
There must have been a plan in place and they were waiting for someone to give the final go ahead. We just learned the leader of the oath keepers called someone close to Trump, asking to talk to Trump.
The Grand Illuminist
(1,340 posts)They are trying to get the opposition to do it for them.
Ohio Joe
(21,769 posts)OK... This is not directed at the OP but the country in general....
Oh God, I know there is info out there but READING IS SOOOO HARD...
Yet, I continue to try and point people at what they should be reading... Yes, Emptywheel again... Lots of words, some hard to understand, lots of legal stuff, some hard to understand... But give it a shot once in a while.
TODD WILSON: THE SEDITIOUS CONSPIRACY GROWS BRANCHES
--snip to the last sentence... The meaty part that might get you to read all of it--
The point being, were very close to a point, if not already there, where this networked conspiracy is going to coalesce such that its no longer about discrete militia groups, but its about people sitting in hotel rooms blocks away from the direct assault on the Capitol.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/05/05/todd-wilson-the-seditious-conspiracy-grows-branches/
Emptywheel stories talk about what we know... It is all sourced and based in reality. There is a lot we don't know for certain yet... And a lot we can speculate from what we do know.
We know there is a 7th Grand Jury going on right now and that they have flipped several on the leaders charged with seditious conspiracy on 1/6. Yes... Those that have flipped will almost certainly testify against the rest of the seditious conspirators but... The 7th Grand Jury is for the next step up the ladder... TFG's inner circle.
I strongly suspect two people are being targeted. Roger Stone and Mark Meadows... We'll see...
In the mean time... Good shit is happening even if it is being very much ignored.
Straw Man
(6,626 posts)He just said, "Will no one rid me of this meddlesome priest?"
They knew what he meant.
fightforfreedom
(4,913 posts)No planning there.