I suspect we'll get a watered down ruling on Roe v Wade...

[Wounded Bear]

one that weakens it, but doesn't fully overturn. There is probably some scrambling going on behind the scenes because of the shit storm they've raised with the leak. I think the "leak" was a trial balloon to test the waters and they should be seeing what an overreach it would be to just overturn it. With another Pussy Hat march in the works for this weekend, there will be more publicity they won't be able to suppress. If Schumer gets his vote this week every Senator will have to weigh in on the issue. That should be good election cycle fodder. Hopefully, our social media warriors are mobilized for the duration.

The repubs can't afford to lose this election cycle, so they want to tone down the RvW talk before the mid-terms and keep it on gas prices. Dems need to emphasize both, the attacks on women's rights and the fact that repubs don't have any answers on the economy, they just want to blame Pres Biden and the Dems. For one thing, Dems should run hard on reinstating the Expanded Child Tax Credit. They should also hammer that gas prices are being artificially held high by the gas companies. Nobody likes them either.

Just my 2 cents.

[uponit7771]

1. Same, majority republicans don't favor ban on abortion. MAGA has stepped in it

.. and Alito's opinion if taken into law opens up too many bags of worms for the country.

[Lovie777]

2. Leave it up to the states . .....

The GQP has been screaming state rights for decades.

Roe should remain intact, and now the GQP are going after birth control, morning after bill, miscarriages, tubular pregnancy, rape and incest forcing women to have babies.

And to boot, harvesting babies for GAWD knows what.

[LeftInTX]

6. This would overturn Roe V Wade

[SharonAnn]

18. Just like slavery was "up to the states" for a long time?

[Meadowoak]

47. +1

[Rebl2]

24. Leave it

up to the states and in many red, if not all red states, it gets banned. Roe needs to remain the law.

[Polybius]

55. Why live in a Red state?

The Blue or Purple ones won't ban it.

[Diamond_Dog]

34. But the GOP has gerrymandered many states

like mine (Ohio)

The will of the people is not taken seriously here. Our Repuke legislature has already put a trigger law into place even though poll after poll shows that Ohioans favor leaving Roe alone.

[Norton Nork]

3. So it goes back to the state level? Suggested strategy.

On the one hand, many states (such as Illinois where I live) will still be OK.
And most states are (for now) sort of OK.

As long as the final outcome is abortion rights everywhere ...

Serious boycotts work.

Instead of stuff like the "sex strike" that only provokes ridicule, why not implement state level boycotts?
It's already been done to good effect on other issues.

[intheflow]

7. The final outcome will never be "abortion rights everywhere" if it goes back to the states.

Hell, we don't even have abortion rights everywhere under Roe, as many, many poor women haven't been able to access abortions in states that have bullied abortion providers to close up shop and leave. Agreed, though, that a sex strike wouldn't work - or would only work if we could get the Justices' spouses on board.

[58Sunliner]

51. Is this gaslighting??

[Norton Nork]

68. Forget what I said before. This just in.

[LeftInTX]

5. This was in Breaking News:

The Supreme Court is set to gather Thursday for the first time since the disclosure that it voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, and there’s no sign that the court is changing course from issuing that ruling by the end of June.

Justice Samuel Alito’s sweeping and blunt draft majority opinion from February overturning Roe remains the court’s only circulated draft in the pending Mississippi abortion case, POLITICO has learned, and none of the conservative justices who initially sided with Alito have to date switched their votes. No dissenting draft opinions have circulated from any justice, including the three liberals.

That could explain why no second draft of Alito’s majority opinion has been distributed, as typically the two sides react to one another’s written arguments and recast their own.

As the nine justices prepare for their scheduled, private, closed-door conference this week, they face one of the greatest crises in modern Supreme Court history, with an internal leak investigation under way, an agitated nation focused on whether the constitutional right to abortion is about to be overturned, and some justices facing angry protests at their homes.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/11/alito-abortion-draft-opinion-roe-00031648

There has obviously been another "leak" or as I refer to this: "the latest scoop"

[Hoyt]

8. I'm hoping that too. Can't imagine the final decision as medival as Alito's draft BS.

Will take only one Justice to moderate their position.

Still want to see the Dissent(s), even if scartched out on the back of a napkin.

[Emile]

9. I have always thought the GOP would never want to give up their best wedge issue.

Not so sure anymore.

[Wounded Bear]

14. But the crazies have been running the asylum for a while now...nt

[empedocles]

10. Would be interesting to hear what Darth alito has to say in conference

[Baitball Blogger]

11. I want to know who the leaker is before I decide.

[Wounded Bear]

16. I really don't care who, though I suspect it was a rightie, not a leftie who did it...

to me it smells like a trial balloon of sorts to test public opinion and enthusiasm.

[Buckeyeblue]

12. I don't think they can...I mean they can but ...

If the SC affirms Roe but changes the viability standard, the court will then be on record upholding Roe. I think that would tie the courts hands for future cases.

I think that opens up challenges to viability. The court can't stay 15 weeks is the new viability standard because there isn't science to support this. They can but I think such a decision is potentially more problematic than overturning Roe. Because a bunch of doctors are going to go public and say, no way is a fetus viable at 15 weeks. That will make the gang of 5 (possibly 6) look out of touch with science.

I wonder if the court kicks the case back out to the lower courts and says, you need to determine a standard for viability.

But the reality is that Alito's 18th century opinion will be probably be the one that prevails.

[LeftInTX]

30. Older laws in Texas prohibited abortion after 20 weeks

Texas law allows you to have a surgical abortion up to 20 weeks (5 months) into your pregnancy, unless you have severe health problems or there is a fetal abnormality. Texas law measures pregnancy by gestational age, but most clinics measure by last menstrual period (LMP). Usually 20 weeks gestational age is about 22 weeks LMP, so some clinics in Texas offer abortions until 21.6 weeks LMP. The abortion pill, or medication abortion, is only available until about nine weeks into your pregnancy, and is not offered by all clinics. If you have not yet confirmed with a clinic how far along you are in your pregnancy, think back to the first day of your last normal menstrual period and count the number of weeks since that day to get an estimate of how far along you are. If you can’t remember, or if your last period was unusually light, you may need to get a sonogram to determine your gestation.https://janesdueprocess.org/pregnancy-resources/teen-pregnancy-abortion/time-before-abortion/

I don't think 20 weeks is "viability", but could be seen as whittling away. Maybe the state argued that abortions after that period were more "invasive" to the mother or something like that (I have no idea, just throwing that out there)

The supreme court could opin that 15 weeks allows ample time to prepare for and have an abortion. It won't change viability. They can accept all or part of the Mississippi law.

[Buckeyeblue]

62. So really they would be punting on viability

In favor of the shorter time frame not imposing an undue burden? That's interesting.

[MineralMan]

13. That's certainly possible, but we should not decrease our vigilance, nor

should we minimize the impact of even a somewhat watered-down ruling. The conservatives on the court want to effectively eliminate Roe. That's clear. They might tone down Alito's opinion, but will not give up on crippling Roe v. Wade.

We need to keep up the resistance, regardless!

[Wounded Bear]

15. Agreed. We should in no way reduce vigilance and activism on women's rights...

in fact, like I said in my OP, we should actively run on it for a change, regardless of the SC decision.

[867-5309.]

17. My gut said a pro-choice person leaked it for this reason

Hoping a firestorm would push them into watering it down. Remains to be seen if it worked.

[Wounded Bear]

20. Possible, for sure, but I like my RW leak as a trial balloon theory, too...

[plimsoll]

43. That's a hot debate, but why would a pro-choice person go to the trouble.

It's going to cause a storm. Letting it go forward later would have had a bigger impact on the election. At this point the rapist-procreation wing of the country will feel cheated if the ruling is watered down and motivate them to vote.

I suspect the forced birth party wanted to measure the animosity this would create. As a trial balloon it lets them say see we're serious, a withdraw would help them at the polls. The politicians probably suggested this and the designated leaker (Beer bong) could release it. Besides the WSJ had the gist a week earlier apparently.

[Phoenix61]

19. They created a Frankenstein and have lost control.

I’m sure their are phone calls a galore but they put religious zealots on the court.

[Wounded Bear]

21. Indeed! nt

[Wounded Bear]

25. Rule 39: "There is no such thing as coincidence."

https://ncis.fandom.com/wiki/Gibbs's_Rules

Any distraction in a storm. Hopefully the public hearings will open some eyes along with the women's rights issues.

[jaxexpat]

46. Oh..... and I forget, are they still invading the Ukraine?

And is Joe still maintaining our "not quite WWIII" status while pretty soundly aiding and abetting the defeat of Trump's hero? I've been too busy fretting about the kamikaze GOP anti-abortion stuff and have lost track. Are you saying that the Jan. 1st thing still on? I thought it had been cancelled due to USSC and rumors and stuff. But good any way, I had been planning to watch it on the Tee Vee. But still, anything could happen to throw it all off. I mean there's still over 150 feet of water left in Lake Meade to evaporate. Might find old coins and stuff. I mean, the whole country runs off couch coin diving. It's like, in our DNA.

[gldstwmn]

67. Those are old mob hits. They're going to find a lot more bodies.

[gab13by13]

26. Alito is worse than Clarence Thomas,

Alito is pissed he wasn't named Chief justice. This will be a showdown between Alito (wannabe Chief justice) and Roberts (Chief Justice)

I don't see Alito backing down, he feels he was shafted by Roberts.

[Wounded Bear]

28. No argument here...

[Tommymac]

39. Alito's Overreach will be the Beginning of the End of the Movement Conservative's attempted Coup.

Mark my words.

The summer of 2022 is going to rival 1968's Summer of Discontent.

The Fight to Save Our Democracy is not over, it has just begun - but Alito has handed the Righteous Sane Progressive Majority the ammunition it needs to take to the streets and make itself heard by the M$M.

And just wait until the 1/6 Public Hearings start.

And if Musk DOES get to run Twitter, TFG's comeback there is going to be a disaster for the Racists.

Buckle up and get your popcorn ready, it's going to be one hell of a ride.



#GOTV2022

[gldstwmn]

66. Thomas and Alito are equally awful but in different ways.

Thomas is the weakest legal mind on the court while Alito is a hard right Catholic wing nut that feels his religion can play a part in his legal decisions.

[msfiddlestix]

29. I tend to agree with your assessment on every point.

I'm glad the leak caused a shit storm and I'm happy Collins is once again "concerned". I wish voters understood what a damn corrupt lying hypocrite she always was and particularly wrt these asswipes were nominated and then helped to confirm.

I still wonder how it was she won reelection after those events.

It is what it is... we have to keep fighting this shit after all these years/decades and actually centuries.

[gab13by13]

31. The court will do what Leonard Leo tells it to do.

[hvn_nbr_2]

32. OTOH, zealots be zealots

That analysis kind of assumes rational, sane people acting rationally and sanely. However, the MAGAt Court's extremist activist judges are irrational insane zealots who are drunk (so to speak) on their power.

[in2herbs]

33. IMO what needs to happen is for Biden to fire Wray bc only by doing that are we going to

get an investigation into Boofer as suggested by Sen Whitehouse. That will knock one off the court or at least neuter him. When that is taken care of investigate the others. And also expand the court.

Biden doesn't need a Senate majority to fire Wray and Wray is standing in our way.

[Scrivener7]

35. When people tell you who they are, believe them.

If they water it down, I will be surprised.

[BannonsLiver]

36. Not a chance in hell.

[Tommymac]

37. K&R for Great Advice nt

[Stargleamer]

38. No way

They know that their voter suppression efforts and gerrymandering allows them to weather any voter backlash and come out ahead. Also their bs about Biden either causing inflation or not doing enough to reduce it will sway gullible voters. So they can be as cruel as they want to be.

[Tommymac]

40. Wow. You really are positive about Democrats.

What's up with the negative message?

WE Progressives are in the Driver's Seat. The Right is GOING to feel the Pain very very soon.

Their LIES are coming home to roost.

The TRUTH always wins out in the end.

[uponit7771]

41. Nope, just understand the efficacy of antivoter laws and measures, that's not negative that's just..

Last edited Wed May 11, 2022, 12:35 PM - Edit history (1)

... facing reality.

Dems need brute Force (GOTv) plus 5% to win. I think that is the prevailing mindset of Democrats now.

We can do this if there is a proper stoke in a little stupidity provided us. With that. I think we can win this November and increase the number of progressive Senate Democrats and get shit done no doubt

[Cheezoholic]

54. K&R n/t

[elleng]

42. Ditto-ish.

[H2O Man]

44. Recommended.

I tend to agree. But I find "watered down" unacceptable.

[Torchlight]

45. I think it's part of an observable, 50 year pattern

The GOP has been chipping away at these laws since day one. Little by little, they have been steadily move forward, they get pushed back, but still wind up gaining legislative ground. Every time.

Each time the tide comes in, it comes in a little further than the last time. Given patience and time, it's easier to engineer than a tidal wave.

[58Sunliner]

49. Pussy Hat march? Uhmm...

[Andy Canuck]

50. Nope

The QOP hasn’t manipulated and lied for 50 years to overturn RvW that protest from the majority will be taken into account. For the QOP ending abortion is the goal, no matter what, they will not flinch in the face of protest. They believe they are following god’s law and do not have to follow anything else. RvW is gone and now the hell begins.

[Baked Potato]

53. I agree that the leak was to test the waters.

The leak at least blunted the effect it would have had as a J6 distraction. For that, I’m glad it happened.

[Cheezoholic]

56. Not just that gas prices are being gouged

but really hammer home that TFG got the Saudi's to reduce production by 2M barrels a day when demand crashed during the pandemic in order to artificially inflate oil prices so big oil could maintain profits at our expense. And that Biden has been hammering the Saudis to go back to pre-pandemic production levels and they are refusing to do so.

[Tickle]

57. Now, I think they will over turn

it because the polls aren’t changing. I’m I naïve enough to have thought that by today the polls would show repubs going down and going down big.
I seem to be wrong. I’m confused at the little reaction I’m seeing. They might as well give it to the states and put it behind them. If it was a repub who leaked this then then what? 🤔🤷?♀️🤷?♀️

[LetMyPeopleVote]

58. Alito's draft opinion overturning Roe is still the only one circulated inside Supreme Court

I hope that you are right. The leaked opinion draft is evidently the only draft now and Roberts could get the votes for a weaker opinion

Link to tweet

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/11/alito-abortion-draft-opinion-roe-00031648

The Supreme Court is set to gather Thursday for the first time since the disclosure that it voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, and there’s no sign that the court is changing course from issuing that ruling by the end of June.

Justice Samuel Alito’s sweeping and blunt draft majority opinion from February overturning Roe remains the court’s only circulated draft in the pending Mississippi abortion case, POLITICO has learned, and none of the conservative justices who initially sided with Alito have to date switched their votes. No dissenting draft opinions have circulated from any justice, including the three liberals.....

Roberts could still try to lobby one of the five Republican-appointed justices to withdraw their support from Alito and sign onto a more centrist opinion that doesn’t formally overturn Roe, but instead upholds Mississippi’s 15-week cut off for performing most abortions. Such a move would deprive Alito of a majority and could maintain some federal guarantee of abortion rights, although precisely what regulations states could impose on abortion under such a scenario remains murky......

“There does seem to be some bitterness among the other justices,” said Curt Levey, a conservative attorney and veteran of several Supreme Court confirmation battles. “There probably was a time when Roberts could’ve convinced one of the other conservative justices [in the pending abortion case.] He might well have succeeded in that a few years ago … Maybe this is the ultimate payback that in the most controversial of all cases and the biggest threat to the legitimacy of the court that he no longer has the persuasive power.”

[CrackityJones75]

59. While the OP is a bit preachy...

While the OP is a bit preachy… if you cannot see the rather large amount of agitators and people that strive to push discord and tamp down enthusiasm…. You’ve never manages an online forum before. This place has plenty. But lots of forums do.

[Bettie]

60. I don't think they will water it down

this is why they were installed. This was their first goalpost.

Next, they will get rid of the idea of a right to privacy altogether, by overturning Griswold, which will set the stage for overturning, Loving, Obergfell, and anything else they get a chance to.

They are untethered to anything and have lifetime appointments. They live in their little bubbles of wealth and privilege and they make bank giving speeches to organizations and individuals that bring cases before them.

Ultimately, they don't care if women die, because they want a "domestic supply of infants for adoption" (by rich white men and women).

[Algernon Moncrieff]

61. The watered-down approach is what Roberts wanted

It's occurred to me that his "shop" may be responsible for the leak for just that reason. Cause a storm; show the court how bad this result will be; make instrumental dismantlement seem more reasonable.

[Patterson]

63. There will be no watering down or compromising.

It will be more hard-core than we could ever imagine.

[Bluesaph]

64. Why haven't the liberal justices circulated dissent?

Possibly the Alito draft had not yet hit their desk.

I’m leaning toward this was a trial balloon.

[gldstwmn]

65. They're not going to water it down. This is what their dark money backers have paid for.

They're going for broke. They're going to overturn it and TFG won't be held accountable for anything either.