Polls now breaking in favor of Democrats on generic ballot

[lees1975]

What a difference a leaked brief makes!

Of six polls taken between May 3rd and 9th, only one, an 800 participant, B-C rated OnMessage poll, had the Republicans at +1 on the generic ballot. The other 5, which included a B+ YouGov of 1,361 registered voters that had the Democrats at +2, and a 2,000 registered voter Morning Consult B rated also at +2, two Engine insights and two additional YouGov polls, were ranging from +3 to +5, respectively.

That's a ten point swing in three weeks. An Ipsos from May 8th, 2,000 registered voters and rated A, has it at 51-42 Democrats. That's the most recent.

If you like really good news, take a look at how Mark Kelly is polling against any of the right wing nuts in Arizona. Average lead is in double digits.

[hedda_foil]

1. Link please?

[lees1975]

9. All I can tell you is 538.com polls

THey're scattered on two different pages.

[Takket]

3. Looking forward to the MSM making a big deal of this

Since they make such a huge deal of every pro-rethug poll. I assume that works both ways

[gratuitous]

4. Bwahahahahaha

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. 538 average is +2.6 for Republicans

The average includes the polls you mentioned, as well as several others dating back to April 30. If current trends continue, I would expect to see the average move in Dems favor.

January 6 hearings and the final SCOTUS ruling on Roe should move the needle further.

[lees1975]

7. I didn't go back all the way to April 30, just picked the May polls starting on the 3rd

and there's just one of those that is a one point lead for the GOP.

I don't know what pollsters consider a trend. Two weeks? If you look at the ones I pointed out, the only one favoring the GOP is the oldest one.

There's Jan 6, whatever transpires with SCOTUS this summer and inflation seems to have peaked. A 3 or 4% drop in that ought to really open the door.

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. Rolling averages typically sample the previous two weeks

So, as I said if the trend of the past few polls continues, expect the average to tip towards the Dems in a week or so.

[uponit7771]

8. That's within MOE and not really good in an off year. Dems need a stoke and thinks to Alito ...

... we just might have it if dems play their cards right on the economy for the middle.

Nothing like getting punched in the face to wake one up ...

[Demsrule86]

13. Clearly, going back before the SCOTUS leak is a waste of time. Although I saw several

polls that have us at +1 before. I think we had a good shot and now we have a better shot as the GOP have revealed themselves for who they are...

[Kingofalldems]

6. Trump's secret pals not liking this one.

[Marius25]

10. I'm not seeing the Ipsos poll on 538

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. Perhaps the Ipsos poll is the most recent, and yet to be added

Let’s see in a day or two.

[Marius25]

11. I bet those numbers would be much higher if not for inflation

and gas prices. That's really what's going to hurt us.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

12. I hope we can continue the momentum.

I still believe the memo was leaked to break the news sooner rather than closer to the election.

Repigs being repigs, they are sure (unfortunately) to help our case passing draconian laws in the interim. Fascists are gonna fascist - they can’t help it.

[Demsrule86]

14. I do not believe it would have come out in June...it would have come out after the election...and

one month makes little difference. I also believe it was leaked to try to stop Roberts from getting some wobbly justices to switch (which may not work) or to give us a heads up in time to fight this before and during the mid-term.

[bigtree]

15. NYT: Why this means trouble for Biden

[fightforfreedom]

16. Wait and see what the polls look like after the month of June.

The open hearings happen in June and the Extreme Court will make it official, Roe is overturned. Extremism always destroyed itself in the end and that is exactly what is going to happen to the so called Republican Party.

[Demsrule86]

17. I think so too.

[sarisataka]

20. I think as highly of these polls

As I did of the ones everyone was sure were wrong because they showed Republicans leading...

[GoCubsGo]

21. I guess that explains why the MSM has gone into overdrive with their fear-mongering

over inflation and gas prices. It's non-stop, with no mention that inflation is easing, or of the record profits that Big Oil and other corporations are making.

Good to ear that about Mark Kelly. Now, if only Georgia would come to their senses. It blows my mind that a carpet-bagging moron could be giving Sen. Warnock such a run for his money.

[48656c6c6f20]

22. You have guts

I would never post any poll info here. It attracts the 12000 polling experts we have here, and then it becomes, oddly, your poll..

[SunSeeker]

23. LOL. Yup. nt