An analysis claiming one million voters switched to the GOP last year was fatally flawed

[YorkRd]

Do you remember an article from earlier this week that claimed one million voters switched to the GOP last year? Turns out it was completely wrong. The authors mistook modeled party ID scores for actual party registration. Political numeracy matters!

Link to tweet

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[PoindexterOglethorpe]

1. In states where one party is dominant,

it's common for voters to register for that party, so they can vote in the primary, but will vote for the other party's candidate come November.

Example: I used to live in Kansas, which is heavily Republican. The reason various Democratic friends gave for registering as Republicans was to vote in the Republican primary. About half of them would vote for the most bat-shit crazy candidate in the primary, on the theory that then voters would go for the Democrat, but the other half would vote for the most sensible Republican in the race, on the theory that they could at least live with that one winning in November. I suspect that the two factions cancelled each other, and I'd try very hard to persuade them to change their registration.

The problem with registering and voting in the Republican primary was that it seriously inflated the actual numbers of Republicans, which made it very hard for potential Democratic candidates, especially those who might run for the State House or Senate, to run. I actually ran for the Kansas State House in 2004. I lost the race (I also had to contend with a Libertarian candidate who made my run more complicated) to a well-liked, moderate, incumbent Republican. But I did well enough, despite almost no help from the state Democratic Party, that they realized that was a winnable seat. Two years later I did not run, but persuaded a Democratic activist friend to do so, and he won. Hooray! He also won re-election, and then the state went bat-shit right wing, and he lost his third election. Sadly.

Anyway, my point about voters registering for the other party, the one they are not truly connected to, would apply in almost any state where one is the overwhelming majority. I currently live in Santa Fe, NM, which is for the most part, strongly Democratic. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to learn that (especially in the northern part of the state) a lot of otherwise Republicans register as Democrats.

[Hamlette]

2. I'm in Utah and I'm the only registered Democrat I know. Everyone else is a Dem that registered GOP

to vote in the primary against Mike Lee et. al.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

3. Yep.

I constantly told the Dems registered as Republicans that they don't need to concern themselves with the Republican primaries. Really, let that party deal with it. Meanwhile, get Democrats to run for office.

When I ran for office, I was actually recruited by the Democratic party because of my involvement in the party. I was probably the first Democrat to run in my district in some years. I did a lot of door to door stuff. I had various friends and relatives help me out. What struck me the most was when I did the door to door thing in one part of my district, and a bunch of the voters were amazed to see me and told me they'd NEVER had a candidate show up before.

I also sent postcards to every voter who said they'd vote for me. or indicated it was possible. I kept track of all of them. I passed that information on to the man who ran for that seat after me.

[obamanut2012]

5. I'm now registered GQP

In Florida, to vote in R primaries.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

7. Your strategy is out-dated

"Bat-shit-crazy" USED to be a negative. Now, it seems to be the minimum requirement in Repub circles.

[uponit7771]

10. +1,

[Demovictory9]

4. I saw the article and passed it by... too much piling on to democrats. Glad its poop

In summary, Catalist writes, “we do not find anything in this analysis that would support the conclusion that current changes in voter registrations should be a worrying sign for Democrats.”

[Scrivener7]

6. It could work in our favor. If they are thinking everyone is just loving this rise of fascism

they will be lulled.

And we are certainly not lulled.

[cally]

8. Thank you for posting this

[Samrob]

9. Well, even if false, that should get more Dems out to vote. nt

[marmar]

11. Once I saw that headline my nostrils were overcome by the scent of rancid BS

[PatSeg]

12. Yes and I said when I saw it

that I did not believe it was true. Thanks!

[Thunderbeast]

13. I am a big fan of "top two" open primaries.

Take the parties out of the state funded process.

Give independent parties an opportunity to compete on equal terms.

Eliminate the mischief of party-switching for primaries to nominate radicals.

California uses this process. Sometimes, two Democrats are the finalists in the general. THAT'S OK. If a candidate can not make it to third place in an open primary, they are not entitled to a second chance.